“A Summer of Political Drama Heads to Fall” - Sunday Political Brunch - September 9, 2018
Mark Curtis, GoLocalProv Contributor
“A Summer of Political Drama Heads to Fall” - Sunday Political Brunch - September 9, 2018
“Florida on My Mind” – I was in the Sunshine State for the Florida primary for governor and there is a lot to chew on from the results. Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Florida), is leaving Congress after three terms, as he easily won the Republican nomination for governor. The big drama was on the Democratic side of the aisle where Mayor Andrew Gillum (D-Tallahassee) scored an upset primary win over former Rep. Gwen Graham, (D-Florida). Graham is the daughter of former Governor and Senator Bob Graham, (D-Florida). Gillum is a progressive, whereas Graham (like her dad) was the more centrist candidate. This is the same internal fight Democrats have faced in many other states. It’s a fight for the future direction of a party divided.
“Monkey Business” – Congressman DeSantis did himself no favors the day after he won the gubernatorial primary. “The last thing we need to do is to monkey this up by trying to embrace a socialist agenda with huge tax increases and bankrupting the state,” DeSantis said. Since his opponent Mayor Andrew Gillum is black, many viewed the “monkey this up” reference as racist. In looking at the entirety of the DeSantis interview, I don’t believe he meant it that way. On the other hand, it is easy to see how the “monkey” reference could be misconstrued. DeSantis is guilty of an incredible lapse in judgment over his choice of words. What on Earth was he thinking?
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST“A Senate Rocket Ride” – All of a sudden, one of the hottest U.S. Senate races in the nation is now in Florida. Sen. Bill Nelson, (D-Florida), was polling well against Gov. Rick Scott (R-Florida), but now the tables have turned. A recent Gravis Poll has the two men dead-even at 47 percent a piece. Many polls over the past year had Nelson with a small but steady lead. All that’s gone now, and Scott is leading slightly in some polls. The Governor’s race could have an impact, and remember, this is a state President Trump won in 2016. Florida is truly a “purple” state, so this one could go either way.
“Arizona” – By sheer coincidence, Arizona was hosting a primary election last week in the wake of Sen. John McCain’s death. The primary was scheduled long ago and had the important distinction of picking nominees to replace Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Arizona) who is not seeking re-election. Rep. Martha McSally, (R-Arizona) won a convincing primary against some far more conservative opponents. McSally, a retired Air Force fighter pilot, will face fellow Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona).
“The Kyl File” – Former Sen. Jon Kyl, (R-Arizona) is back. He will fill out the remaining two years of John McCain’s term. This is significant for several reasons. First, Kyl is a consensus choice in what could have been a nasty fight. The White House likes him, the U.S. Senate leadership likes him, and John McCain’s family deeply respects and loves him. He will be a “yes” vote on Brett Kavanaugh for the U.S. Supreme Court. And with that he takes away the prospect of a maverick Senate appointee voting against the Trump pick, Kavanaugh. Well played by all sides on what could have been a potential disaster.
“Oklahoma, Where the Wind Comes Sweepin’” – There were no big surprises in the third primary in the last week, that being in Oklahoma – a reliably red state. But, here’s something to keep an eye on. There were several teachers strikes in states across the nation this year, most notably in West Virginia where the trend began. Oklahoma teachers walked out for nine days inspired by the 5-percent pay raises that were won in West Virginia. On primary night in Oklahoma, six legislators who voted against a pay raise were voted out of office. Keep an eye on this developing trend, especially in states with teacher-labor disputes.
“Kavanaugh Will Win” – There is no mystery here. Judge Brett Kavanaugh will be the next Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. And I predict it will happen so fast, that he will be on the bench when the high court convenes on October 1, 2018. The bigger issue to watch is how the voters cross party lines, especially in red states where Democratic Senators are in tough re-election fights. Keep an eye on Sen. Joe Donnelley, (D-Indiana); and Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, (D-North Dakota), as well as Sen. Jon Tester, (D-Montana), and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia).
What are your predictions about campaign 2018? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar media TV stations serving West Virginia and surrounding states.
GoLocal Statewide Poll - Conducted by Harvard's Della Volpe - June, 2018
Registered Voters
Q1: Are you registered to vote in Rhode Island?
Total 501 100%
Yes: 501 100%
No: 0 0%
Don't know: 0 0%
Gender
Q2: Are you ...
Total
Total: 100%
Male: 44%
Female: 56%
Age
Q3: In which age group are you?
18-24: 7%
25-34: 16%
35-44: 15%
45-54: 20%
55-64: 17%
65+ 25%
Political Party
Q4: When it comes to voting, do you consider yourself to be affiliated with the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Moderate, or Unaffiliated with a major party?
Democrat: 38%
Republican:14%
Moderate: 6%
Unaffiliated: 39%
Don't know/Refused: 3%
Likely Voters
Q5: Next year, in November of 2018, there will be a statewide general election for Governor and many other state offices. How likely is it that you will vote in this election? Will you definitely be voting, will you probably be voting, are you 50-50...
Definitely be voting.............................. 81%
Probably be voting............................... 19%
All others............................................. 0%
Top Issue
Q6: What would you say is the number one problem facing Rhode Island that you would like the Governor to address?
Taxes.................................................. .18%
Jobs and economy.............................. 16%
State budget.........................................11%
Roads...................................................10%
Education............................................ 8%
Healthcare........................................... 5%
Corruption/Public integrity.................... 4%
Immigration.......................................... 4%
Housing.............................................. ..2%
Governor............................................. ..2%
Homelessness.......................................1%
Other.. ............................................... 14%
Don’t know.......................................... 6%
Direction
Q7: In general, would you say things in Rhode Island are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?
Right track........................................... 19%
Wrong track......................................... 36%
Mixed.................................................. 45%
Optimism
Q8: Thinking ahead several years, is your outlook about Rhode Island more optimistic or more pessimistic?
Optimistic............................................ 52%
Pessimistic...........................................48%
Finances
Q9: Over the last three years or so, has your family's financial situation improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?
Changed for the better......................... 24%
Changed for the worse......................... 33%
Not changed at all................................ 43%
Governor
Q10: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for her: 9%
There is a good chance I will vote for her: 19%
It is possible that I vote for her: 24%
It is unlikely that I will vote for her: 18%
I will never vote for her: 31%
Governor
Q11: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Matt Brown, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 4%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 8%
It is possible that I vote for him: 40%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 30%
I will never vote for him: 17%
Governor
Q12: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Spencer Dickinson, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 7%
It is possible that I vote for him: 37%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 35%
I will never vote for him: 18%
Governor
Q13: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Paul Roselli, a Democrat
I am sure to vote for him: 2%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 7%
It is possible that I vote for him: 35%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 37%
I will never vote for him: 19%
Governor
Q14: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Allan Fung, a Republican
I am sure to vote for him: 7%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 18%
It is possible that I vote for him: 28%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 25%
I will never vote for him: 21%
Governor
Q15: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Patricia Morgan, a Republican
I am sure to vote for her: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for her.: 9%
It is possible that I vote for her: 32%
It is unlikely that I will vote for her: 35%
I will never vote for her: 21%
Governor
Q16: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Giovanni Feroce, a Republican
I am sure to vote for him: 2%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 5%
It is possible that I vote for him: 24%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 35%
I will never vote for him: 34%
Governor
Q17: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Luis-Daniel Muñoz, an Independent
I am sure to vote for him: 3%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 6%
It is possible that I vote for him: 33%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 38%
I will never vote for him: 21%
Governor
Q18: Which of the following comes closest to your view regarding each of the following potential candidates for governor of Rhode Island?
Joe Trillo, an Independent
I am sure to vote for him: 1%
There is a good chance I will vote for him: 8%
It is possible that I vote for him: 37%
It is unlikely that I will vote for him: 34%
I will never vote for him: 19%
Governor
Q20: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Gina Raimondo, Republican Allan Fung and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Allan Fung, a Republican..................... 33%
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat................ 33%
Joe Trillo, and Independent.................. 16%
Don't know 18%
Governor
Q20: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Gina Raimondo, Republican Patricia Morgan and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Gina Raimondo, a Democrat................ 39%
Patricia Morgan, a Republican............. 20%
Joe Trillo, an Independent................... 19%
Don't know ......................................... 22%
Governor
Q21: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Matt Brown, Republican Allan Fung and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Allan Fung, a Republican..................... 35%
Matt Brown, a Democrat...................... 25%
Joe Trillo, an Independent.................... 14%
Don't know .......................................... 27%
Governor
Q22: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Matt Brown, Republican Patricia Morgan and Independent Joe Trillo - for whom would you vote?
Matt Brown, a Democrat...................... 30%
Patricia Morgan, a Republican............. 20%
Joe Trillo, an Independent.................... 18%
Don't know .......................................... 33%
U.S. Senate
Q23: If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Republican Robert Nardolillo - for whom would you vote?
Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat........... 53%
Robert 'Bobby' Nardolillo, a Republican.. 31%
Don't know............................................... 16%
U.S. Senate
Q24: If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse and Republican Robert Flanders - for whom would you vote?
Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat........ 54%
Robert Flanders, a Republican............. 32%
Don't know.......................................... 14%
Schools
Q25: If there was an election today, would you vote to approve or reject issuing $250 million in financing supported general obligation bonds to repair Rhode Island's deteriorating school buildings and bring them up to minimum standards called "warm, safe and dry"?
Net: Approve...................................... 74%
Definitely approve............................... 36%
Probably approve................................ 38%
Net: Reject......................................... 17%
Probably reject.................................... 9%
Definitely reject.................................... 7%
Don't know.......................................... 9%
PawSox
Q26: The Rhode Island General Assembly is in the process of negotiating a $40 million public financing deal with the Pawtucket Red Sox for a new stadium, hoping to bring a vote before the House and Senate this summer.
In general, do you favor or oppose the use of public funds to help finance a new stadium for the Pawtucket Red Sox?
Net: Favor.......................................... 33%
Strongly favor...................................... 13%
Somewhat favor.................................. 21%
Net: Oppose....................................... 59%
Somewhat oppose.............................. 21%
Strongly oppose.................................. 38%
Don't know.......................................... 8%
Fane Tower
Q27: The City of Providence and the state of Rhode Island are considering a proposal by New York developer Jason Fane to build a 46-story luxury residence tower in Providence, next to a public riverfront park. The developer will invest $250 to $300 million of his own funds. The project is called the Hope Point Tower, it would be 170-feet taller than the Superman building and would require waiving height restrictions and the use of state tax credits.
In general, do you favor or oppose development of the Hope Point Tower?
Net: Favor.......................................... 39%
Strongly favor...................................... 13%
Somewhat favor.................................. 27%
Net: Oppose....................................... 50%
Somewhat oppose.............................. 23%
Strongly oppose.................................. 27%
Don't know.......................................... 11%
Elorza/Traffic Cameras
Q28: How would you rate the job that Mayor Jorge Elorza has done managing issues related to speed cameras in Providence?
Net: Excellent/Good.......................... 26%
Excellent............................................. 6%
Good................................................... 20%
Net: Fair/Poor.................................... 74%
Fair...................................................... 29%
Poor.................................................... 45%
Q29: Since it was launched in 2016, UHIP -- the Rhode Island program designed to improve customer service for those who receive federal benefits -- has run into significant problems, including long lines, cost overruns, lost applications, over- and under-charging of patients and families.
Based on what you know at this time, what percent of blame for this do you assign to:
Deloitte, the consulting company who
produced the system........................... 53.3%
Governor Gina Raimondo, who has
been governor since the system
launch in September 2016................... 47.1%
NIMBYism
Q30: Presently, there are local groups opposing the development of a natural gas facility in Burrillville, solar projects in Exeter, a LNG facility in Providence and wind projects in North Kingstown.
Some people say that it is important for local groups to play a role in opposition of projects like these that could be dangerous or harmful to citizens;
Others say that local groups have gone too far to the detriment of the state’s long-term energy needs.
Which statement comes closer to your own view?
Local groups play an important role...... 46%
Local groups have gone too far............. 31%
Not sure................................................. 24%
Corruption
Q31: Compared to other states, do you think there is:
More political corruption in RI................. 63%
Less political corruption in RI................ 7%
About the same level as other states..... 30%
Income
Q32: The next question is about the total income of YOUR HOUSEHOLD for the PAST 12 MONTHS. Please include your income PLUS the income of all members living in your household (including cohabiting partners and armed forces members living at home).
$50,000 or less.................................... 33%
More $50,000 but less than $75,000..... 18%
More $75,000 but less than $100,000... 16%
More $100,000 but less than $150,000. 13%
$150,000 or more................................ 10%
Don't know/refused.............................. 10%
Ethnicity
Q33: What particular ethnic group or nationality - such as English, French, Italian, Irish, Latino, Jewish, African American, and so forth - do you consider yourself a part of or feel closest to?
Net: White, Non-Hispanic..................... 82%
Black or African American.................... 6%
Latino/Hispanic.................................... 5%
Other.................................................... 7%
Geography
Q34: City/Town Into Region.
West Bay............................................ 28%
Metro-Providence................................ 28%
Blackstone Valley................................ 21%
South County...................................... 10%
East Bay............................................. 13%
