Biden Kicks-off Campaign Solidly Positioned for Re-Election - Horowitz
Rób Horowitz, MINDSETTER™
Biden Kicks-off Campaign Solidly Positioned for Re-Election - Horowitz
Following the release of the announcement video, President Biden delivered a more meat and potatoes speech in front of members of the Building Trades Unions, hammering home his success in boosting American manufacturing and creating jobs. The president called his economic plan a blue-collar blueprint to rebuild America, drawing attention to “shovels in the ground, cranes in the air,” and “factories opening." He reminded the friendly audience and the nation at large of the legislative accomplishments that are the trigger behind this burst of new economic activity, including the bipartisan infrastructure package, the Chips and Science Act to encourage domestic production of strategically important semiconductors, and the landmark investments in accelerating the transition to non-carbon producing renewable energy contained in the Inflation Reduction Act.
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These truly impressive legislative accomplishments, together with his rebuilding and marshaling of the Western alliance to back Ukraine’s successful fending off of a Russian invasion, will mark Joe Biden as a consequential president, but do not guarantee his re-election. The political headwinds generated by our first serious bout of inflation in more than 40 years and concerns about his age, make this a challenging political environment for Mr. Biden and create the likelihood of a close general election battle, especially if the Republicans nominate someone other than the highly unpopular Donald Trump.
Mr. Biden enters the campaign with 43% of Americans approving of his job performance and 52.5% disapproving, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average of recent national polls. Job approval is traditionally the polling measure that best correlates with reelection percentage. Barring a serious recession, however, I expect a marginal boost in Mr. Biden’s job approval rating between now and the election as inflation continues to recede and as the new laws he championed are more fully implemented, translating to widespread new factory openings and jobs, infrastructure upgrades that the public can see and feel, and a speedier transition to non-carbon producing renewable energy. An additional factor is that even among those that disapprove of Mr. Biden there is relatively less strong disapproval. Among likely voters that disapprove of both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump for example, in a hypothetical general election match-up, 54% say they would support Mr. Biden, while only 19% say they would support Mr. Trump, according to a Wall St. Journal poll.
There has been a heavy emphasis in media coverage on polling results that have consistently recorded that a substantial majority of Americans don't want the president to run again. Seven out of ten Americans, for instance, in a recent NBC News poll, say he shouldn’t run again. But this feeling is driven mainly by concerns about his age and is not necessarily related to general election candidate preference. For example, while about half of Democrats say Biden shouldn’t run again, nearly 9-in-10 say they will vote for him. Additionally, of the voters that say he shouldn’t run again, half say age is a major reason and a total of 7-in-10 say age is at least a minor reason.
Still, the president is 80 and will be 82 at the beginning of his next term, assuming he is reelected. There is little doubt that concerns about whether he can now and in the future perform his duties at the high level required is a weight on his candidacy—one that he needs to directly address and to rebut through his public performances, which are from time to time uneven. The president’s recent public allusions to his age show that he recognizes this reality.
In this endeavor, Joe Biden is not helped by the fact that his physical appearance and reduced voice quality do not make him a walking advertisement for 80 as the new 60 or even the new 70. This will remain an ongoing challenge, but one that can be mitigated by solid performances in the presidential debates, an active campaign and presidential schedule, and more public appearances as president.
The president will be heavily advantaged by the fact that it appears that he will not face a serious challenge for his party’s nomination, while the Republicans are going to have a highly competitive battle-one that features its fair share of negative attacks. Even more important than this structural advantage, the two frontrunners for the Republican nomination are seriously flawed general election candidates.
Only 34% of likely voters rate Donald Trump positively, while 53% rate him negatively, according to the recent NBC News poll and he continues to repel independents and moderates, the most important swing voter segments in the electorate. The former president’s general election standing is likely on a further downward trajectory as the season of Trump indictments is upon us. Governor Ron DeSantis is a stronger general candidate than Mr. Trump. His signing of a 6-week abortion ban, as well as his other hard right positions and policies, however, while good positioning for the nomination battle, are general election poison.
Echoing Kevin White, a former Boston mayor, President Biden repeatedly reminds us to not compare him to the “Almighty,” but to the “alternative.” He is likely to once again be fortunate in that alternative. This, along with his substantial accomplishments as president--ones that an effective campaign will make more voters aware of--provide solid re-election positioning. As a result, it is better than even money that American voters will give him the victory required to “let him finish the job.”