5 Tips for Watching Tonight’s National Election Coverage - Horowitz
Rób Horowitz, MINDSETTER™
5 Tips for Watching Tonight’s National Election Coverage - Horowitz
1. The election night commentary from about 5:00 PM until the polls close and results begin to come in at 7:00 PM or so are shaped by the early exit poll results to which all the networks are privy. If anchors and commentators shade their comments towards one of the political parties or one of the candidates in a key battleground race having a good night, that is nearly always a clue as to which candidate is ahead in the early exit polls. The early exit polls, however, are often wrong. So, if it seems as if your candidate or political party is doing well based on the initial gum-flapping, it is premature to break out the champagne. One of the most famous anecdotes about jumping to a conclusion based in this case on leaked national early exit poll results was media consultant Bob Shrum reportedly saying to John Kerry on election night in 2004, “May I be the first to call you Mr. President.”
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2. Without knowing whether the early vote and the mail ballots are included in the totals you are viewing, it is difficult to impossible to reach firm conclusions on what the returns portend. Given Donald Trump’s demonization of mail ballots, it has become a method of voting used disproportionately by Democrats and more Democrats than Republicans traditionally vote early. That is why in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2020 where the processing and counting of mail ballots is not allowed until election day, Donald Trump’s early leads-- which were based solely on the results from people that voted in person on election day-- were predictably erased once the mail ballots were counted..in other words, to make an informed guess about what the raw totals portend as they come in, it is essential to know the breakdown between votes by mail, early votes, and election day ones.
3. Results in races in competitive districts in Virginia and Indiana where the polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time may be the canaries in the coal mine: As Chuck Todd noted on Meet the Press this past Sunday, there are a number of races in these two states where Republican challengers are given a good chance of knocking off Democratic incumbents. Among the races to watch: Representative Elaine Luria versus Jen Kiggans (VA-2); Representative Abigail Spanberger versus Yesli Vega( VA-7); and Representative Frank Mrvan versus Jennifer Ruth Green (IN-1). Similarly, Florida polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time in most of the state (a portion of the state is in the Central time zone, and polls there will close at 800 PM Eastern Time) and since election officials are permitted to count the absentee ballot results before election day, totals usually come in relatively rapidly. If Val Demings is running close to the incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio, that may bode well for Democrats.
4. Pay Attention to the Fox News election decision desk. As it did in 2020 when it was the first network to call Arizona for Biden, it will serve as at least a partial check on Republican candidates who prematurely declare victory before mail ballots are counted or emulate Donald Trump. claiming widespread voter fraud without any evidence to back it up. Fox News is where most Republicans and conservatives will get their election night news. If the highly independent and widely respected Fox News decision desk is contradicting these candidates in real-time and explains that it is important to wait until the early vote and mail ballots are counted before determining the final results, it will push back on efforts to cast doubt on the results and will serve as a deterrent, keeping at least some Republican officials from engaging in a reprise of the “Big Lie.”
5. Realize that there is a strong possibility that it will not be known on election night which party will control the U.S. Senate. As in 2020, it may take a few days to count all the absentee ballots in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin-the location of 2 hotly contested Senate races. In both of those states, the law prevents the processing and the counting of absentee ballots from starting before election day. Additionally, it is more likely than not that neither Herschel Walker nor Senator Warnock will clear the 50% threshold in Georgia required to avoid a runoff. This could result as it did in 2020 in control of the US Senate not being determined until the runoff on December 6.