Looming Roe v. Wade Overturn Shakes Up Our Politics - Horowitz

Looming Roe v. Wade Overturn Shakes Up Our Politics - Horowitz

A leak to Politico of a draft majority opinion authored by Justice Alito overturning the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion throughout the nation is shaking up our politics. While it is important to note that the final shape of this opinion when it is issued by the Supreme Court in late June may be substantially different from this early draft, the likelihood remains that Roe will either be overturned or significantly pared back.

Generally speaking, in the 50 years or so since the Roe decision, political energy on the issue of abortion has been higher on the pro-life side, providing a marginal benefit to Republican candidates, since most of them have been pro-life.  This is because the procedure has been legal and its legality became taken for granted.  When that national legal protection is lifted or at least severely circumscribed, it is likely that the political impact of the issue will shift. More energy is likely to be on the pro-choice side as it is driven home to voters that in many states in our nation abortion will once again be illegal. Democrats will consequently gain a net marginal benefit.

The initial reactions of elected officials to the leak demonstrates that the view that Democrats could gain politically is the preponderant one. Leading Democratic politicians, including President Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, were just about shouting from the rooftops about the negative implications of this draft opinion.

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Pelosi’s comments are a representative example: “If the report is accurate, the supreme court is poised to inflict the greatest restriction of rights in the past 50 years – not just on women but on all Americans, the speaker said. “The Republican-appointed justices’ reported votes to overturn Roe v Wade would go down as an abomination, one of the worst and most damaging decisions in modern history.”

On the other hand, leading Republicans focused on the damage the leak caused the Supreme Court, blaming it on liberals without knowing the identity of the leaker, and downplaying the impact of any decision.  Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, for example, declared, “You need – it seems to me, excuse the lecture – to concentrate on what the news is today. Not a leaked draft, but the fact that the draft was leaked.’’ A memo from the Senate Republican Campaign Committee obtained by Axios recommended that candidates soft-pedal the issue.   In an election year where the overall political environment favors the Republicans, there is concern that the overturning of Roe v. Wade could lessen their advantage going into the mid-terms.

Polling demonstrates that concern is well-founded. By nearly 2-to-1 (64% to 36%), American adults support keeping the Roe decision in place, according to a CBS News Poll taken since the draft opinion became public. Similarly, 61% of Americans say “abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances,” as opposed to 37% who say it should be “illegal in all or most circumstances,” according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted in March.

Still, voters’ views on abortion are not as one-sided as those stark numbers suggest. As a result, even though the issue will likely advantage the Democrats in the mid-terms, it may turn out to be less of a political lifeline than it may seem at the moment. As Pew Research wrote in its poll report, “relatively few Americans on either side of the debate take an absolutist view on the legality of abortion – either supporting or opposing it at all times, regardless of circumstances,”.

Accurately identifying a large percentage of the electorate as “cross-pressured on the issue,” Pew calls attention to the fact that “more than half of Americans who generally support abortion rights – by saying it should be legal in “most” or “all” cases – also say the timing of an abortion (i.e., how far along the pregnancy is) should be a factor in determining its legality (56%).”  Additionally, most people who support legal abortion still back requiring parental consent before a minor can have the procedure. In fact, “about a third of Americans who generally support legal abortion (33%) say the statement human life begins at conception, so a fetus is a person with rights describes their own view at least somewhat well,” wrote Pew.

For pro-choice Democratic candidates to turn the potential political advantage of the overturning of Roe into a concrete one that gains them votes in November, a measured approach that lets the electorate know that they understand the issues’ complexities is essential.  Bill Clinton’s politically effective formulation that “abortions should be safe, legal and rare” remains instructive.

This measured approach will provide a strong favorable contrast with the increasing Republican extremism on the issue.  More state legislatures controlled by Republicans, for example, are passing bans on the procedure without exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother—a position that less than 1-in-5 voters support—measures that would be constitutional if Roe is overturned.  On top of these recent adoptions, 13 states have so-called trigger laws that put state bans on abortion back in place in the event that Roe is overturned.  No amount of soft-pedaling by pro-life Republican US Senate and House candidates can neutralize all these realities, which will be highly publicized during the summer and into the fall, unless that candidate succeeds in characterizing their Democratic opponent’s position on the issue as extreme and out of the mainstream, “supporting abortion on demand without any limits.” or that candidate stakes out more of a middle ground that risks losing support from pro-life voters.

The issue of abortion alone will not by itself erase the favorable Republican political environment going into the mid-terms even if as it seems likely Roe is overturned.  But it can make a dent in it and provide the winning difference for pro-choice Democrats in some close races. It will spur some dispirited Democrats to the polls and help pick-off some swing voters—particularly Republican-leaning independent women.  Maximizing this potential impact, however, will depend in large measure on the skill of the individual candidates.