House Democrats Heed Election Wake-up Call - Rob Horowitz

House Democrats Heed Election Wake-up Call - Rob Horowitz

“When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully,” famously said the 18th Century English writer, Samuel Johnson. While there are roughly 26 fortnights until the 2022 mid-terms, this maxim very much applies to the passage on Friday--3 days after the Democrats’ poor showing in the 2021 off-year elections-- of the more than $1 trillion dollar infrastructure legislation. 

The “Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act” had been languishing in the House of Representatives for nearly 3 months, since it passed the Senate with overwhelming bipartisan support. Soon to be signed into law by President Biden, this legislation provides funding to build, repair and improve roads, bridges, sewers, airports and public transit systems, to accelerate action on the climate through providing charging stations for electric cars and modernizing the electric grid, and to expand the availability of broadband.

The major gains made by Republicans in the off-year elections served as the impossible-to-turn-off alarm Democrats in the House of Representatives needed to put their all too public squabbling aside and finally get the infrastructure legislation over the finish line.  Speaker Pelosi was able to use the election results and what they portended for next year when all House members are up for re-election to prod the progressive and moderate factions to reach an agreement that resulted in nearly all Democratic members voting for the infrastructure legislation. The agreement included the moderates’ commitment to vote for the Build Back Better legislation at a $1.9 trillion over 10- years total spending level, once it receives a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) score, and their votes on Friday for a rule that paved the way for a floor vote on the Build Back Better Act on November 15. The Build Back Better Act is the highest priority of progressives. Before the election, they were refusing to vote for the infrastructure legislation unless Build Back Better moved in tandem with it.

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There was wide recognition among Democratic elected officials and strategists that an unfavorable national political environment was the main reason for the inroads by Republicans in elections that took place in what was usually friendly territory for Democrats. Glenn Youngkin’s victory over former Governor Terry McAuliffe in Virginia and Jack Ciattarelli’s near upset against heavily favored Phil Murphy in New Jersey—both solid blue states that Joe Biden won by large margins—along with strong down-ballot performances by Republicans in Virginia, New Jersey and in several other contests around the nation, was made possible by President Biden’s declining approval ratings and the related inability of the Democratic-controlled Congress to pass the major components of the president’s agenda.

President Biden’s approval rating was 46% in Virginia and 43% in New Jersey, according to the exit polls in Virginia and the Monmouth University poll taken just before the election in New Jersey (Since a close contest was not expected in New Jersey, exit polls were not conducted in that state). Perhaps most telling was that Terry McAuliffe lost independents in Virginia by 9% when Joe Biden had won them by 19% the year before—a nearly 30% point swing in the wrong direction for Democrats. 

President Trump remains very unpopular in Virginia as he is across the nation, but McAuliffe’s attempt to tie Glenn Youngkin to the former president was insufficient to prevent the peeling off of a large slice of suburban independents. Since Mr. Trump is no longer in office, voters are understandably more concerned about the performance of the current president. With a majority of Virginians who voted in the 2021 governor’s race disapproving of President Biden’s performance, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate faced strong headwinds. 

It is certainly the case, that with a better campaign or a weaker Republican opponent, Terry McAuliffe may have been able to win despite those headwinds.  Governors’ races with their focus on state and local issues, however, provide opportunities for bucking national trends that are far less available to candidates for the House of Representatives.  And given that it is the norm for the party out of power to gain seats in Congress in the midterms, last week’s election results underscore the importance for Democrats of creating a more favorable political environment, if they are to have even a fighting chance for holding the House of Representatives where Republicans are only a switch of 5 seats away from a majority.  Similarly, keeping control of the US Senate, where given the current 50-50 party split, they cannot afford to lose even one seat will be challenging without a significant uptick in President Biden’s approval ratings. On the other hand, given that the states where next year’s contests will take place create more jeopardy for Republican incumbents than Democratic ones, a more popular Biden would give the Democrats an opportunity to pick up a seat or two.

There is surely plenty of time for Joe Biden to regain his popularity in advance of next year’s midterms. The passage of the infrastructure legislation was not only a landmark substantive accomplishment; it is the first important step towards accomplishing that goal.  “It’s a game-changer for the country,” Ed Rendell, a former governor of Pennsylvania and a long-time leader in the fight to upgrade our infrastructure,” told The Washington Post. “The first comprehensive infrastructure plan we have had since Dwight D. Eisenhower created the interstate highway system. It will be a big shot in the arm.”

If Democrats in both houses continue to heed the bracing reality check they received on election day and move forward in the next few weeks to also pass the Build Back Better Act in close to its current form, they will have a strong record of accomplishment to take into the mid-terms—one that will help fuel a resurgence in President Biden’s approval ratings.   Just the absence of Democratic in-fighting dominating the news cycle will create the space required for President Biden, cabinet members and members of Congress to communicate the specific components of these two comprehensive pieces of legislation--most of which are popular with the overwhelming majority of American voters.

An improving economy as evidenced by the 500,000 jobs created last month, which will receive a boost from these two new laws, and the related continuing receding of the COVID-19 pandemic all bode well for the political winds to be more at the Democrats backs as the mid-terms approach.

 If the Democrats end up doing better in next year's midterm elections than history or today’s political environment would indicate, they should look back and thank the voters of New Jersey and Virginia, as well as several other localities that have off-year elections, for the wake-up call.

 

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.