Postponement of Infrastructure Vote is Only a Bump in the Road - Horowitz
Rob Horowitz, MINDSETTER™
Postponement of Infrastructure Vote is Only a Bump in the Road - Horowitz
“I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat,” said Will Rogers. That famous remark by the early 20th-century humorist was called to mind last week as we watched Congressional Democratic moderates and progressives repeatedly clash and unable to reach agreements, resulting in the postponement in the House of Representatives of a vote on a $1 trillion bi-partisan infrastructure legislation that both sides of the Democratic ideological divide support.
The main culprit in this delay, however, was not primarily democratic dysfunction, although there was certainly plenty of that on display; it was the mismatch between a highly ambitious and sweeping legislative agenda and the narrow majorities the Democrats currently have in both houses of Congress. Taken together, the $1 trillion or so infrastructure legislation, which includes funding for repairing roads and bridges, for critical public transit projects and for the charging stations needed to transition to electric cars, and the up to $3.5 trillion American Family Plan that includes a major expansion of the social safety net, significant funding for climate change initiatives with tax increases on corporations and people making over $400,000 to provide revenue for its components, is the kind of large scale legislation that usually requires big majorities to pass. When Lyndon Johnson succeeded in winning the adoption of Medicare and Medicaid, for example, there were 68 Democrats in the Senate and 295 in the House of Representatives.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTToday, in contrast, there are 50 Democrats in the Senate and they are only in the majority because Vice-President Harris can break ties. Similarly, there are now 221 Democrats in the House, which means if only 5 decide to not support a particular bill and the Republican opposition remains unified there are insufficient votes for passage. With majorities, this narrow, individual members and factions within political parties gain major leverage. This is what gives Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) the power to insist on the scaling back of the human infrastructure proposal. It also gives the Progressive Caucus in the House with its 95 members, including a large enough slice willing to defy Speaker Pelosi the ability to block a vote on the bi-partisan more traditional infrastructure legislation until there is an agreement on the larger human infrastructure proposal. And it gives the moderates in the House, even with their smaller numbers, the leverage to get Pelosi to schedule that vote in the first place.
While these narrow majorities are the prime factor in this stall in the adoption of Biden’s ambitious domestic agenda, which is largely contained in these two pieces of legislation, and make its ultimate passage a challenging proposition, the path forward is clearly marked and Congressional Democrats have a big stake in crossing the finishing line. The president spelled out that path in remarks to House members on Friday. As reported by Politico and other outlets, “Biden warned progressives that they would likely have to accept a reconciliation bill with a price tag between $1.9 trillion and $2.3 trillion — well below the $3.5 trillion they’d initially priced for. To sell the deal, Biden argued that even at that reduced level, the party would still be making “historic” investments.”
The chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Representative Pramilia Jayapal (D-WA) conceded that reality in television appearances over the weekend. Senator Manchin has already stated that he is willing to accept $1.5 trillion and has indicated a willingness to continue to negotiate. Over the next few weeks, it is highly likely that an agreement will be reached. The hard reality is that with every Republican Senator opposed to the American Family Plan, all 50 Democratic senators need to be on board and progressive leaders do recognize that.
Over the next few weeks, the prospects for passage of these two major pieces of legislation will also improve because President Biden and others are planning to go on the road and promote the major policy initiatives contained in these bills. These are supported by large majorities of the American public. What has been lost in all the wrangling over how large the expenditures are going to be are the substantive improvements to the lives of individual Americans, to our ability to tackle the climate challenge, and to our economic competitiveness contained in these proposals. Additionally, the fact that the costs are nearly always expressed as the 10-year totals-- as opposed to the roughly when it is all said and done $300 billion a year of new spending--- contributes to a sense of sticker-shock at least for some people.
When we look back at the end of this year at the postponement of the infrastructure vote in the House, it is likely to be viewed as no more than a bump in the road. The ambitious Biden domestic agenda remains very much on its way to passage.
