Scientific Consensus on Climate Change Finally Setting in with Americans - Horowitz

Scientific Consensus on Climate Change Finally Setting in with Americans - Horowitz

A well-funded and effective disinformation campaign orchestrated by the oil companies and amplified by right wing media was successful for many years in sowing doubts in the American public about whether climate change was occurring and whether it was a real threat. Even the fact that there is a long-standing scientific consensus with more than 90% of scientists in agreement that the global warming we are experiencing is primarily caused by people and that unless it is curbed the impacts are potentially disastrous was blurred by featuring climate skeptics and deniers as if they were broadly representative of scientific opinion.
 
The good news is the impacts of this disinformation campaign are wearing off and the American public is finally catching up with the rest of the world in understanding  the climate problem. Taken together, the accretion of plain facts and hard-to-ignore weather impacts, the oil companies now accepting the basics of climate science and no longer aggressively funding climate change denial efforts, and the better job scientists and advocates are now doing of detailing the dangers of a rapidly warming planet and the practical solutions that exist for limiting global temperature increases, have moved domestic public opinion, creating more fertile political soil for climate action.
 
A recent Ipsos poll released by Axios provides a case in point: “Seven out of 10 Americans are aware of the scientific consensus that climate change is largely caused by people, and that the world isn't on track to reach the temperature reduction targets of the Paris climate agreement.”  This is a major uptick in recognition of the scientific consensus. Even a narrow majority of Republicans (52%)—the sub-group that is the most skeptical of the threat of climate change and whose media choices still tend to downplay the threat and for many years amplified disinformation--now are aware that there is a scientific consensus on the large role humans play in climate change and that the world is behind on achieving the Paris goals.

Knowledge that there is scientific consensus is important because it is a “gateway belief,” according to peer-reviewed research. “Using national data from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat, wrote Anthony A. Leiserowitz, Senior Research Scientist and Director of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the 3 other study authors. “In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.”

While there has been marked growth in the awareness of Americans of the scientific consensus on climate change, more public education on the topic can still yield major dividends. After all, 30% of Americans still don’t recognize that there is a scientific consensus and many who are aware that there is a consensus, don’t grasp its breadth. In fact, “only about one in five (22%) understand how strong the level of consensus among scientists is (i.e., that more than 90% of climate scientists think human-caused global warming is happening),” according to a recent Yale University Program on Climate Change Communication and George Mason University Program on Climate Change Communication poll.

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With a landmark International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) report, reflecting the consensus of scientists around the world, beginning to be released later this summer, there will be new information and a compelling news hook to continue to inform the American public. And there is more or less a straight line between increasing the number of Americans informed on climate change and increasing support for the action required to limit global temperature increases and avoid the worst consequences of climate change.

 

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.