Glasgow Delivers Progress on the Climate - Horowitz

Glasgow Delivers Progress on the Climate - Horowitz

Taken together, the nearly 200 nations agreement forged at the recently concluded Glasgow Climate Summit, along with the substantial side agreements announced, move the world closer to achieving the goal of limiting global temperature increases to the 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit increase from pre-industrial levels that scientists tell us we must not exceed if we are to avoid the worst consequences of global warming.

It is the case, as the critics of Glasgow point out, that even if all the commitments made by nations and other key players at the Summit are fulfilled that the rise in global temperatures would exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal.  Climate Action Tracker, for example, estimated that if all the promises made at Glasgow were kept, the world would still warm by 1.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, reported The New York Times.   Still, Glasgow worked as the landmark 2015 Paris Climate Accords envisioned with nations upping their previous pledges and plans for climate action significantly. 

The promise of the process begun in Paris was that nations would continue to up their commitments over time. That came to fruition.  Perhaps, most importantly, the agreement in Glasgow calls for nations to submit more aggressive plans by the end of next year to substantially cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 —accelerating the 5 year time intervals for updating plans that were previously in place.

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Glasgow featured major side agreements that substantially buttressed the general agreement achieved.  More than 100 nations signed on to the United States/European Union pledge to cut methane emissions 30% by 2030.  “Cutting methane pollution is the single best chance we have to slow the rate of warming now, even as we accelerate the shift to a clean economy,” wrote Fred Krupp, President of Environmental Defense Fund. “Pound for pound, the comparative impact of methane is 25 times greater than carbon dioxide over a 100-year period,” reports the US Environmental Protection Agency ( EPA). Over the first twenty years, methane has more than 80 times the warming impact of carbon dioxide. Methane currently accounts for 25% of global warming.

Additionally, nations that comprise 85% of the worlds’ forests, more than 100 countries all together-- including Brazil, the home of the Amazon Rainforest, a particularly potent carbon sink---signed on to a pledge to end deforestation by 2030.  This agreement dedicates billions of dollars towards fulfilling the pledge. “If tropical deforestation were a country, it would be the third-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, according to the World Resources Institute,” reported The New York Times.

Also, of note, the United States and China signed a bilateral side agreement in Glasgow to up their climate change commitments and actions. This agreement by the world’s two largest carbon emitters that together produce about 40% of the world’s greenhouse gases set the stage for the broader nearly 200 nation agreement that followed.

And the private financial sector weighed in strongly as well. The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, which proclaims its mission as “bringing together the financial sector to accelerate the transition to a net-zero economy,” committed to hit net zero emissions by 2050 for the $130 trillion of assets under its control. The individual companies that comprise the alliance also committed to deliver their fair share of net-zero investments by 2030 and to report on their progress annually. The Alliance is comprised of a critical mass of the world’s largest banks, insurers and investors.  This sends a strong market signal that the private sector is all in on financing the transition from fossil fuels to non-carbon producing renewable energy.

The success of Glasgow was in large measure a result of the actions on the climate of the Biden Administration on the domestic front that restored American credibility on the issue and special envoy John Kerry expertly using that renewed American credibility to negotiate consequential agreements.  While we can’t recover the 4 years lost due to former President Trump declaring his intention to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords and employing a heat up the planet in all ways possible approach to the home-front, this reckless, irresponsible abandonment of the climate fight has now been reversed, and the United States is back in its needed leadership role.

Glasgow by itself did not resolve all the complex problems that need to be proactively addressed if we are to leave a habitable planet for our children. The agreements forged there, however, have, left us closer to doing so. Taken together, they represent substantial progress.

The path ahead will not be easy. But limiting global temperature increases to avoid the worst consequences of climate change is a more achievable goal after Glasgow-than before.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.