The Abortion Issue Packs a Potent Political Punch - Rob Horowitz

The Abortion Issue Packs a Potent Political Punch - Rob Horowitz

An in-depth national survey conducted in the wake of the US Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade confirms that the political impact of the decision is likely to provide a near-term boost to Democrats nationally. enabling some limitations of mid-term losses. Over the long-term, these poll results underscore opportunities for Democratic gains on the state legislative level, where Republicans have far outpaced them over the past decade or so.

By nearly 2 to 1(63% to 34%) Americans oppose the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe, according to the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) survey.  Similarly, 65% of Americans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, as opposed to 33% of Americans who say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases.

Tellingly, the percentage of Americans who believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases who say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion has more than doubled since 2020, increasing from 15% to 34%, reported PRRI.  On the other hand, the percentage of Americans who believe abortion should be illegal in all or most cases who say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on this issue is about the same as 2020, moving from 29% to 31%--within the survey’s margin of error. 

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While this large boost in the number of people among pro-choice voters who say they will only vote for candidates who are aligned with them on this issue will likely recede somewhat as we move further away from the instant impact of the Court’s decision, these results show that the overturning of Roe will nearly definitely move some swing voters---particularly Independent and Republican women--into the Democratic column in the Fall. In other words, the political fallout from the Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization will not only boost turn-out from Democratic base voters in the mid-term; it will likely produce a measurable persuasion effect as well.

This is especially the case because between now and November the issue of abortion will continue to receive saturation-level media coverage. The impacts of the overturning of Roe will create points of controversy in at least half of our states, which either have recently passed laws severely limiting or outright banning abortion, sometimes without exceptions for rape and incest or have so-called trigger laws on the books banning abortion--laws that are now activated as a result of the Court’s decision.  

And public opinion on the main issues surrounding abortion that will be in dispute over the next several months strongly favors the pro-choice position.   Nearly 6-in-10 Americans, for example, oppose laws that would “make it illegal to receive through the mail FDA-approved drugs, also known as the abortion pill for a medical abortion.”  Similarly, nearly 2-in-3 Americans oppose laws making it “illegal to cross state lines to obtain an abortion in another state”.  More than 3-in-4 Americans oppose laws ‘restricting what types of birth control can be used to prevent pregnancy.”

Even with the Republicans’ traditional political advantage on abortion, now being substantially reversed, the overall political environment still favors the GOP this fall.  The vote gains made possible by the overturning of Roe, however, can serve as a political lifeline for Democratic candidates in close contests, enabling the party to limit losses in the House of Representatives and giving it a better shot to maintain control of the US Senate.  At the state level -- where most of the battles on abortion will be fought-- major opportunities are now open for Democrats to pick up state legislative seats.

It will now, of course, be up to individual Democratic candidates to skillfully seize these opportunities.