Chafee: Odd Man Out?

Chafee: Odd Man Out?

Less than a month into the Chafee administration it is unclear whether he will join his colleagues in what has become the politics created by the Great Recession. Across the country, governors like Democrats Andrew Cuomo of New York and Jerry Brown of California are advocating policies very similar to their Republican colleagues most prominently exemplified by New Jersey’s Chris Christie.

This new “Politics of Frugality” judges politicians by their fiscal probity—not the new programs they deliver. Governors from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and everywhere in between, are rejecting tax increases; capping local property taxes; taking on public employee unions by fighting for significant pension adjustments for new and current workers; and pushing big cuts in government spending.

The Empire State’s Cuomo, who is in one of the bluest states in the country, opposes continuing the tax on New York’s millionaires and has enlisted a new coalition of business supporters in a multi-million dollar campaign designed to counter the power of New York’s public employee unions—despite the fact that they supported his candidacy.

In California, Jerry Brown is cutting billions from the California state budget and eliminating the position of Secretary of Education, along with all the deputy cabinet secretary positions.

There are exceptions. Minnesota’s Governor, Mark Dayton, is pushing a new tax increase on the wealthy and Governor Pat Quinn of Illinois, pushed for a 60% increase in the corporate income tax. But most Governors have concluded right or wrong, that raising taxes will make it more difficult to attract new jobs and businesses.

Which brings us to Lincoln Chafee. So far, he has not sounded the same, tough fiscal notes as some of the other new Governors. Chafee not only advocated expanding the sales tax in the campaign, but his proposals to change the pension system mainly affects new public employees.

One big test of the Chafee Governorship is likely to be how he navigates the relationship with the unions. Like Cuomo, Chafee received the strong support of public employee unions. However these unions are a much more significant part of Chafee’s base than Cuomo’s. Chafee only garnered 36% of the vote, while Cuomo won in a landslide.

One could argue that this close relationship will be helpful as changes in the pension system and new contracts are negotiated. This may make for a more productive and constructive negotiating environment than the contentious one under former Gov. Donald Carcieri. But fiscal reality will still demand that Chafee be a tough negotiator with his friends. Rhode Island faces a $295 million budget gap in the coming fiscal year and federal stimulus money, which has plugged many of these holes, is phasing out. The unfunded pension liability currently tops $4.4 billion.

Can Chafee do it? It will be interesting to watch.

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Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant. His clients include national and state issue organizations, non-profits and elected officials. Rob has served as a general consultant, campaign manager, direct mail consultant and pollster on gubernatorial, congressional, county and local election campaigns. Rob is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at University of Rhode Island, where he teaches courses in both Media and Elections. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and received his Master’s Degree from the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University.

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