DeSantis Remains Formidable - Rob Horowitz

DeSantis Remains Formidable - Rob Horowitz

Ron DeSantis’ ill-conceived and technically problematic announcement of his presidential candidacy via an interview with Elon Musk on Twitter Spaces fed a political narrative that has almost become conventional wisdom; namely, that the Florida governor has lost so much altitude over the past several months as a result of relentless unanswered attacks from Donald Trump and his own self-inflicted wounds that his presidential campaign is close to fatally wounded, despite the fact it is just at its formal beginning.

 
It is the case that since the high of his landslide reelection victory in November— an impressive win that stood out all the more in the wake of a disappointing Republican performance overall---Governor DeSantis has had a bumpy few months, making more than his share of unforced errors.   These shaky few months have had a strong negative impact on how pundits and political journalists view his candidacy. With the ultimate deciders, Republican primary voters, however, Mr. DeSantis is still highly regarded with a favorable national rating that hovers around 60%, a superb measure for a first-time presidential candidate at this early point in the election calendar.

 

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In fact, Governor DeSantis remains a formidable presidential candidate. He starts the race well-positioned to expand his support, turning the nomination contest into essentially a two-way race after the first few states cast their votes. This will create the opportunity to build winning margins, providing the Florida governor with a sufficiently large pool of voters who are open to his candidacy to overcome Trump’s core base and capture the nomination.  Mr. DeSantis will be aided in this task because he is favorably perceived by primary voters who currently indicate they plan to vote for Donald Trump, giving him a good shot at picking off soft Trump supporters.

 

The Florida governor will have more money at his disposal to make his case than any of the other Republican presidential candidates, including Mr. Trump.  An indication of his fundraising prowess is The Friends of Ron DeSantis state account currently contains $86 million. Most of this money will end up in his super PAC, which has a credible plan to raise more than $200 million to boost his candidacy.  Despite his struggles over the past few months, most of the large donors and major bundlers in the Republican party are still in his corner, buoyed by private polling that has him within striking distance and in some cases, even ahead of the former president in the early states that have a disproportionate influence on the nomination contest. Additionally, Governor DeSantis has demonstrated a capacity to raise money online from small donors through the culture war appeals that make the cash register ring.  He raised more than $8 million, for instance, in the 24-hour period following his announcement.

 

Ron DeSantis’ argument that he is far more electable than the former president will receive a timely boost from the anticipated summer of Trump indictments.  Legal observers expect charges in the next several weeks in the Mar-a-Lago documents case and in August on illegal efforts to overturn the results of the presidential election in Georgia.  These developments are all but certain to widen the existing gap between Ron DeSantis’ performance in general election polls in the key swing states and Donald Trump's.  Additionally, the cumulative impact of these indictments, though many Republicans will think they are unfair, will solidify the sense that already exists among a majority of Republican primary voters that it might be time to move on from Donald Trump.

 

The combination of more legal trouble on the horizon for the former president and the lowered expectations for the Florida governor’s candidacy among the pundit class, provides fertile soil for a DeSantis comeback narrative building over the summer and into the fall.

 

All of this, however, does depend on Mr. DeSantis improving his public performances. He must broaden his message beyond narrow cultural issues, employing his success in Florida -- at least as perceived by Republicans ---as a foundation to offer a governing vision for the nation, one that emphasizes a path to broader economic opportunities and sound fiscal policies.

 

In other words, it’s time for Governor DeSantis to move beyond simply “owning the libs.” Commenting on Mr. DeSantis’ announcement in The Atlantic, David Frum put it this way, “It was a message for a faction, not a nation. It was a small message for a big country.”  Mr. DeSantis must keep in mind that the job he wants is not troll-in-chief; it’s commander-in-chief.

 

Governor DeSantis’ development and effective communication of a broader and more appealing vision of his presidency is his most important task ahead, far more important than any attacks on Donald Trump. How and when he goes after or responds to Donald Trump will continue to be a media preoccupation, but it is not a critical short-term strategic objective.

 

Ron DeSantis begins the race with the building blocks and the favorable political environment that put him in a strong position to capture the nomination. Turning this potential into results, though, requires that he markedly improve as a candidate.  His political future is exactly where he should want it: in his own hands.