EXCLUSIVE: Poll Shows Elorza Vulnerable in Re-Election Bid for Providence Mayor
GoLocalProv News Team
EXCLUSIVE: Poll Shows Elorza Vulnerable in Re-Election Bid for Providence Mayor
The poll was conducted by John Zogby Strategies — Zogby has been one of the top pollsters over the past three decades. The poll was commissioned by State Representative John Lombardi’s campaign.
Elorza defeated the late Vincent “Buddy” Cianci 53 percent to 44 percent in 2014. It was Cianci’s first loss in seven tries for Mayor, and many considered the 2014 election to be a referendum on Cianci, who died in January of 2016.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTThe poll explored a primary between the five candidates who have publicly voiced interest in running for Mayor of Providence in 2018.
In a hypothetical five-way campaign between Elorza, Lombardi, former educator Robert DeRobbio, East Side businessman and former candidate Lorne Adrain, and the only announced challenger, community activist Kobi Dennis found that Elorza only scores 36 percent of the vote.
‘If the Democratic Primary for Mayor were held today and the candidates included Lorne Adrain, Jorge Elorza, Kobi Dennis, John Lombardi, and Robert DeRobbio, who would you vote for?”
Jorge Elorza 35.9%
John Lombardi 18.3%
Kobi Dennis 8.3%
Lorne Adrain 6.5%
Robert DeRobbio 5.4%
Other 8.2%
Not Sure 17.3%
“The poll was commissioned after I received so many inquiries about the city’s leadership,” said Lombardi in an interview with GoLocalProv. Lombardi exclusively shared the poll with GoLocal.
The poll also showed that Lombardi was competitive with Elorza in a one-on-one race. According to the question, “If the Democratic Primary for Mayor of Providence were held today and the candidates were just Jorge Elorza and John Lombardi, who would you vote for," the results were as follows:
Jorge Elorza 45.8%
John Lombardi 33.3%
“I was pleased with the result. The poll is a clear reference point for the 2018 election,” said Lombardi.
For Elorza, the Zogby poll is a significant warning for an incumbent.
The poll also found that it is a toss up if voters want the continuation of the Elorza administration or want new leadership.
“Generally speaking, do you think Mayor Elorza deserves to be re-elected, or do you think it is time for someone new?”
Deserves re-election 44.8%
Time for someone new 42%
For Elorza, who has campaign coffers of more than $600,000, the Zogby poll is a challenge. The poll explored Elorza’s base and the results will be a disappointment for first-term mayor.
“Will you vote for Mayor Elorza regardless of who will run against him, or not?”
Yes 26.7%
No 57.1%
Not sure 16.2%
The poll was conducted between April 4-8 and had a sampling of 424. The poll has a margin of +/- 5 percent.
SEE GOLOCAL'S POLL CONDUCTED BY JOHN DELLA VOLPE OF HARVARD IN OCT. OF 2017
GoLocal: Benchmark Poll, October 2017
Sponsor: GoLocalProv
Sample: N=403
Rhode Island General Election Voters Margin of Error: +/- 4.9% at 95% Confidence Level
Interviewing Period: October 9-11, 2017
Mode: Landline (61%) and Mobile (39%)
Telephone Directed by: John Della Volpe, SocialSphere, Inc.
Are you registered to vote at this address?
Yes: 100%
When it comes to voting, do you consider yourself to be affiliated with the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Moderate, or Unaffiliated with a major party?
Unaffiliated: 49%
Democrat: 32%
Republican: 15%
Moderate: .4%
Next year, in November of 2018, there will be a statewide general election for Governor and many other state offices. How likely is it that you will vote in this election?
Will you definitely be voting, will you probably be voting, are you 50-50...
Definitely be voting: 78%
Probably be voting: 13%
50-50: 9%
In general, would you say things in Rhode Island are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?
Right track: 39%
Wrong track: 45%
Mixed: 10%
Don't know/Refused: .6%
What would you say is the number one problem facing Rhode Island that you would like the Governor to address?
Jobs and economy: 21%
Education: 12%
Taxes: 12%
Roads: 12%
State budget: 9%
Corruption/Public integrity: .8%
Healthcare: 3%
Governor: 3%
Homelessness: 2%
Immigration: 2%
Other: 7%
Don’t know: .9%
Over the past three years or so, would you say the economy in Rhode Island has improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?
Changed for the better: 35%
Changed for the worse: 16%
Not changed at all: 43%
Don't know/Refused: 5%
Over the same time, has your family's financial situation improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?
Changed for the better: 26%
Changed for the worse: 19%
Not changed at all: 54%
Don't know/Refused: 1%
Recently, a proposal has been made to permit the issuance of $81 million in bonds by the State to build a new stadium for the Pawtucket Red Sox. If there was an election today on this issue, would you vote to approve or reject issuing $81 million in financing supported moral obligation bonds to build the stadium?
Net: Approve: 28%
Definitely approve: 15%
Probably approve: 14%
Net: Reject: 67%
Probably reject: 19%
Definitely reject: 48%
Don't know: 4%
Could you please tell me your age?
18-24: 7%
25-34: 15%
35-44: 15%
45-54: 20%
55-64: 17%
65+: 25%
Don't know/refused: 1%
What was the last grade you completed in school?
0-11: 2%
High school grad: 16%
Technical/Vocational school: 1%
Some college: 23%
College grad: 34%
Graduate degree: 24%
Don't know/refused: 1%
The next question is about the total income of YOUR HOUSEHOLD for the PAST 12 MONTHS. Please include your income PLUS the income of all members living in your household (including cohabiting partners and armed forces members living at home).
$50,000 or less: 27%
More $50,000 but less than $75,000: 13%
More $75,000 but less than $100,000: 13%
More $100,000 but less than $150,000: 17%
$150,000 or more: 13%
Don't know/refused: 17%
What particular ethnic group or nationality - such as English, French, Italian, Irish, Latino, Jewish, African American, and so forth - do you consider yourself a part of or feel closest to?
American/None: 21%
English: 13%
Italian: 13%
Irish: 12%
Black or African American: 6%
Latino/Hispanic: 6%
French: 6%
Portuguese: 3%
Jewish: 3%
German: 1%
Would you say that Donald Trump has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as President?
Excellent: 13%
Good: 12%
Fair: 14%
Poor: 57%
Never heard of: 0%
Cannot rate: 3%
Would you say that Jack Reed has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a United States Senator?
Excellent: 22%
Good: 29%
Fair: 23%
Poor: 15%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate: 6%
Would you say that Sheldon Whitehouse has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a United States Senator?
Excellent: 17%
Good: 22%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 28%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate: 7%
Would you say that David Cicilline has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a Member of Congress?
Excellent: 9%
Good: 29%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 27%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate: 8%
Would you say that James Langevin has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a Member of Congress?
Excellent: 7%
Good: 30%
Fair: 20%
Poor: 18%
Never heard of: 13%
Cannot rate: 11%
Would you say that Gina Raimondo has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Governor?
Excellent: 6%
Good: 28%
Fair: 30%
Poor: 31%
Never heard of: 1%
Cannot rate: 3%
Would you say that Daniel McKee has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Lieutenant Governor?
Excellent: 3%
Good: 16%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 8%
Never heard of: 26%
Cannot rate: 25%
Would you say that Peter Kilmartin has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Attorney General?
Excellent: 3%
Good: 20%
Fair: 28%
Poor: 17%
Never heard of: 13%
Cannot rate: 19%
Would you say that Seth Magaziner has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as General Treasurer?
Excellent: 4%
Good: 18%
Fair: 24%
Poor: 13%
Never heard of: 21%
Cannot rate: 21%
Would you say that Nellie Gorbea has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Secretary of State?
Excellent: 5%
Good: 21%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 10%
Never heard of: 20%
Cannot rate: 23%
Would you say that Jorge Elorza has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Mayor of Providence?
Excellent: 4%
Good: 24%
Fair: 24%
Poor: 22%
Never heard of: 9%
Cannot rate: 15%
