Friday Financial Five – November 11, 2016

Dan Forbes, GoLocal Contributor

Friday Financial Five – November 11, 2016

A presidential surprise for the markets

As with Brexit earlier in the year, Donald Trump’s seemingly improbable path to victory was roiling markets even before the election results were finalized. While the situation created massive volatility on a temporary basis, the downward turn was short lived as domestic markets have largely recovered and increased. Real estate, bonds, and emerging markets haven’t fared as well. The country faces extremely tough decisions when it comes to taxes, budget deficits and entitlement spending, making many people anxious about the fiscal details for a Trump presidency. If details emerge leading to a lower tax environment in 2017, that might mean prepaying expenses or trying to push income until after year end.

Possible changes for Obamacare

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Small business owners are concerned about the increasing cost of health insurance, and Trump’s promise is on the table to address the Affordable Care Act. A first step frequently discussed would be allowing insurance companies to compete across state lines. This could be messy at first, as each state currently deals individually with insurance administration and regulation. There would be savings for the insurance companies and less barriers to entry for competitors. In theory, that would lead to lower premiums for insureds. Repealing the Act in full may be not be feasible, and any changes would probably have to include popular provisions including coverage for pre-existing conditions and a cap on family expenses. 

Interest rate hike now in doubt

The hike in interest rates that seemed quite possible prior to the election is probably now very much in doubt. The Fed may wait to see how the world responds to the election results, especially given the global market volatility and rise in mortgage interest rates. Fed leadership is also in question, as Trump has mentioned more than once that he would move to replace Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Her term ends in 2018, and there’s always the possibility that she could opt to resign prior to that end date.

Record bond initiatives approved on Tuesday

Tuesday’s vote approved huge amounts of borrowing for public projects in the form of bond measures. Over $70 billion in bonds were voted on, with roughly 60 percent of that coming from California alone. California did approve its biggest issue, Proposition 51, which is $9 billion of general obligation debt to modernize schools. There is always talk of improving the nation’s infrastructure, but this was still an atypical amount of dollars on the ballot. It’s the largest amount since 2006 when over $80 billion in funding was at stake.

Madoff trustee continues to make progess

With everything going on, it’s hard to believe it’s approaching eight years since the Bernie Madoff fiasco came to light. Irving Picard, the court appointed trustee enlisted to liquidate Madoff’s firm, has scored another settlement. This time, it was $277 million from the estate of money manager, Stanley Chais, who was accused of funneling roughly $1 billion to Madoff. The total recovery is over $11 billion of the estimated $17 billion lost.

 

Dan Forbes, a CFP Board Ambassador, is a regular contributor on financial issues. He leads the firm Forbes Financial Planning, Inc in East Greenwich, RI and can be reached at [email protected]

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