Generation Z’s Coming of Age Will Increasingly Shape Our Politics - Horowitz

Generation Z’s Coming of Age Will Increasingly Shape Our Politics - Horowitz

 

With 40 million of the 68 million strong Generation Z eligible to vote in 2024 and the rest following over the next few elections, this newest generation to enter the electorate will play an increasingly influential role in our politics.  Defined by most demographers as those born between 1997 and 2012, Generations Z is not only a relatively large generation, but early indicators are that a higher percentage of its members are voting than previous generations did at the same age. In 2022--the first mid-term in which Generation Z comprised the entire 18 to 24 cohort--for example, “youth voted at a higher rate in that election than Millennials, Gen X, and likely Boomers did in their generations’ first midterm election, according to Tufts University Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE).

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Generation Z is our nation’s most diverse generation.  “About 45% of the 40 million Gen Zs who will be eligible to vote in 2024 are young people of color, including 8.8 million Latinos, 5.7 million Black youth, 1.7 million Asian Americans, and 1.8 million multiracial youth,” documents CIRCLE.  As more members of Generation Z come of age, the share of youth of color will increase. Not surprisingly, since members of this generation more frequently interact with peers from diverse backgrounds, Generation Zs “are more likely than older generations to believe that America’s diversity is a source of strength for the country.” according to AEI’s Survey Center on American Life.

 

Like Millennials-- the generation that came just before it-- Generation Z is more liberal than the rest of the electorate.  Nearly 4-in-10 (39%) Gen Z adults “identify as liberal, 32 percent identify as moderate, and roughly one in four (26 percent) are conservative,” according to the survey center.  This ideological breakdown, however, doesn’t translate to as high a percentage of self-identified Democrats as one might expect.  Thirty-two percent of Gen Z adults say they are Democrats, 21% identify as Republicans, and tellingly, 45% identify either as independents or something else.

 

In this era of pervasive distrust of elected leaders and the federal government, it follows that members of Generation Z who have grown up in this political climate would be less trusting than previous generations.  Only about 1-in-3 Generation Z and Millennial adults agree with the statement “When I was growing up America’s political leaders could generally be trusted,” as compared to more than half of Generation X, 2-in-3 Baby Boomers, and 8-in10 members of the Silent Generation, reports the survey center.

 

As with Millennials, social media is the prime medium for campaigns and causes to reach Gen Zs.  “Seven in 10 (70 percent) Gen Z adults use social media daily, including 55 percent who report spending time on social media sites multiple times a day,” documents the survey center.  They are also more likely to be cord cutters and as a result not reachable by traditional television advertising.

 

Looking ahead to November, the expanding share of Generation Zs in the electorate is an undeniable advantage for President Biden.  Whether he can maximize this advantage, however, remains an open question.  It will require convincing the significant subset of these new voters that are far more aligned with the president ideologically than with the likely Republican nominee, Donald Trump, but who do not identify with the Democratic Party to not cast their ballot for other alternatives, such as Cornel West, Jill Stein. Robert Kennedy Jr or a potential No-Labels candidate. The 2016 election with fewer and less attractive alternatives shows the challenge the Biden campaign faces.  Without a sizable percentage of youth voters peeling off Hillary Clinton in 2016 for minor party and independent candidates with no chance of winning, she would have defeated Mr. Trump.

 

Over time, as Generation Z fully enters the electorate and adulthood and, combined with Millennials, soon comprises the majority of voters, it will have an outsized impact on our politics and culture.  I am betting that the impact will be for the better.