The Nikki Haley Moment - Rob Horowitz
Rób Horowitz, MINDSETTER™
The Nikki Haley Moment - Rob Horowitz
If Ms. Haley continues her upward trajectory, she has a good chance to emerge as the prime alternative to Donald Trump and an outside chance to wrestle the nomination away from the former president. In this quest. she is likely to benefit from how the field has thinned over the past few weeks with her fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott and former vice-president Mike Pence leaving the race. The former South Carolina governor is likely to pick up a disproportionate share of both these candidates’ supporters and donors.
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It would be another boost to the former South Carolina governor’s candidacy, if Chris Christie would follow their example, particularly in New Hampshire where the former New Jersey governor, who has emerged as a sharp Trump critic, is currently running third. If Mr. Christie means what he says about how important it is defeat Mr. Trump, the best thing he could do is drop out before New Hampshire and endorse Nikki Haley.
The growth in support for Ms. Haley has been fueled by strong debate performances and a new generation message in the tradition of JFK—a message that is broadly appealing to that large segment of the Republican primary electorate that is at least open to the idea of moving beyond Donald Trump. “We’re ready, ready to move past the stale ideas and faded names of the past,” Nikki Haley told the crowd at her campaign kick-off. “And we are more than ready for a new generation to lead us into the future.”
Nikki Haley has also benefited from staking out strong positions on support for Ukraine and Israel, highlighting her foreign policy knowledge and experience. These positions do have a downside in today’s Republican Party, however, where a large number of voters are instinctively isolationist and particularly skeptical of continuing to provide military support to Ukraine. Still, so far, they have been a plus for her candidacy, enabling Ms. Haley to differentiate herself from Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis and demonstrate the kind of leadership qualities people like to see in a commander-in-chief. They are also positions embraced by most of the large Republican donors, many of whom are now breaking her way.
Additionally, for those Republican voters concerned about electability, Ms. Haley already runs stronger by several points than either Mr. Trump or Mr. DeSantis against Joe Biden. As her national profile increases over the next couple of months, the perception of her as the Republican most likely to defeat Joe Biden is likely to grow as is the differential between her performance in head-to-head matchups against the president and Mr. Trump’s performance. After all, most general election voters still have strongly negative opinions of the former president.
To be certain, Ms. Haley remains a decided underdog and much must continue to fall in place for her to emerge as a strong competitor to Mr. Trump. This begins with her finishing second or at worst, a strong third in Iowa. A solid performance in Iowa is essential to giving her the momentum needed to finish a strong second or even win in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is a state that is tailor-made for a Republican like Haley who has the potential to attract strong support from independents. Particularly in a year without a competitive Democratic contest, independents usually comprise a substantial share of the Republican primary vote.
But Iowa ---where evangelical Christians comprise a disproportionately large share of the Republican caucuses vote-- remains a challenge for the former South Carolina governor. Mainly due to their outsized support from evangelicals, the last 3 winners of the Iowa Republican caucuses were Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee. Ron DeSantis is the candidate most in that tradition. The Florida governor also recently picked up the support of the popular Republican Governor Kim Reynolds and the state’s leading evangelical political activist, Bob Vander Plaats, who endorsed the past 3 winners.
On the other hand, Iowa is the one place where Mr. Trump’s presence in the race may actually help Ms. Haley. The former president remains popular with evangelicals and this may serve as a brake on the growth of support for Mr. DeSantis. It certainly has to date. Ms. Haley is arguably better positioned than Mr. DeSantis to pick up the non-evangelical segment of the Iowa Republican caucus vote.
South Carolina, Ms Haley’s home state, is the location of the next contest. If she can best the former president or come in a strong second in this primary--which will be held on February 24--she will essentially turn the nomination battle into a two-way race. At that point, Mr. Trump’s obvious existing deficiencies as a general election candidate, which will be put in bold relief as his trial dates grow nearer, as well as what promises to be his over-the-top attacks on a woman he already calls ‘birdbrain” will be directly compared to an articulate, conservative voice of a new generation--one who is a much better bet than the former president to recapture the White House.
Even in this scenario with nearly everything breaking Ms. Haley’s way, Mr. Trump would still be a solid favorite to win the nomination. But Nikki Haley is far too formidable a candidate. to count out.