Horowitz: Stars Aligning for Raimondo
Rob Horowitz, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™
Horowitz: Stars Aligning for Raimondo
As the old, but still true political cliché goes, “timing in politics is everything.” When Gina Raimondo is sworn in as Governor today, she begins her term with the economic and political winds at her back, creating the opportunity for a successful Governorship that moves our state forward.
Boosted by a now solidly recovering national economy and the economic strength of neighboring states, particularly Massachusetts, Rhode Island is now fitfully climbing out of its economic doldrums. This gives Raimondo fertile soil for her economic initiatives, making it more likely that she will be able to claim success by pointing to new business formation, more successful existing entrepreneurs, increased jobs and rising wages. Her approach to fixing the Rhode Island economy as outlined in her campaign is sound and comprehensive and if enacted will pay long-term dividends for our state. But in an economy that is already improving, she is likely to realize a more immediate boost in public opinion—one that will strengthen her political hand.
Raimondo is also advantaged because her strengths contrast favorably with her immediate predecessor Lincoln Chafee. In other words, despite being an honorable politician who accomplished some good things for Rhode Island, Chafee is in no way “a hard act to follow.” Chafee's absence of message discipline and inability to effectively communicate his priorities, made it difficult to impossible for him to use the bully pulpit to marshal public opinion to his side. This is a skill that is even more essential in a Rhode Island governor than in other elected executive positions due to the structural weakness of the office in Rhode Island. In terms of enumerated powers, it is the weakest Governorship in the nation.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTRaimondo has already persuasively demonstrated her ability to set priorities and move public opinion in her impressive effort to reform Rhode Island’s broken and nearly bankrupt state pension system. This effort provides a successful blueprint for how to get a Governor’s priorities adopted by the General Assembly. It combined the kind of persistent and repetitious communication needed to drive a message home with enlisting opinion leaders, interest groups and active citizens to contact their legislators. (As an advisor to Mayor Taveras, one of Raimondo’s opponents in the Democratic primary, I can vouch for her discipline and communications skill.)
Gina Raimondo is poised to be a politically successful Governor. Let us hope she wisely uses the economic and political economic winds at her back to bring about the lasting reforms Rhode Island desperately needs. I, for one, am optimistic that she will.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
10 Questions Raimondo Has to Answer as Governor
Moving the needle?
Forbes recently ranked Rhode Island 5th worst in the country for business environment -- a not uncommon position for the Ocean State in recent years. Forbes placed RI as high as 20th for quality of life -- but #49 for "regulatory environment."
How soon can Governor-elect Raimondo improve Rhode Island's basement-level assessment and make it more competitive -- and what will she have to do to make that happen? Addressing the sales tax? Estate tax? Look to Raimondo's State of the State address -- and first budget proposal -- for signs as to how the direction the new Governor plans on taking the state.
Gambling hole?
As GoLocal's Stephen Beale pointed out, RI has no plan to deal with $307,000,000 shortfall, when casinos in MA are operational, and RI's third largest source of revenue -- gaming and the Division of Lottery -- will take a huge hit. "A consultant's report showed Rhode Island losing $108.8 million a year in casino gaming revenue by 2017. And that was a best case scenario. The worst case had the state bleeding $158.4 million by 2017," wrote Beale.
How will Governor-elect Raimondo deal with the 800-pound gorilla in the room? Newport Grand failed in its bid for table games on the ballot in November. Will Raimondo let the General Assembly continue to prop up the ailing slots parlor?
RhodeMap RI?
The previously little-known economic development plan under the State's Division of Planning -- made possible by a federal HUD grant -- has heated up in a big way as opponents are voicing their concerns as to the scope and reach of the plan, if incorporated into the state's broader economic plan.
Will Governor-elect Raimondo get behind RhodeMap RI's vision fully, and how would she address detractors who don't appear to be going away at any point soon? Given that there will most likely need to be legislative components to implement the plan, watch to see where Raimondo's leadership is on this issue.
Marijuana legalization?
Some of the air came out of the marijuana legalization balloon when former Speaker of the House Gordon Fox stepped down last year, and the notably more conservative Speaker Nicholas Mattiello took the helm, making the prospect of a marijuana legalization bill appear dim, at best.
The Daily Chronic reported that the Democratic gubernatorial candidates indicated during the campaign that they were "monitoring the effects of regulation and taxation in Colorado and Washington." Raimondo's certainly given no indication she'd be inclined to consider a tax-and-legalize measure, but as gaming revenues start to taper off, will marijuana discussion ramp up as a new revenue option?
Union relations?
While Raimondo appointed five transition team members with big banking ties, she also appointed two union heads -- Pat Quinn with SEIU 1199 and Michael Sabitoni with the RI Building and Construction Trades Council.
While Raimondo managed to secure union endorsements following a primary that saw them go primarily to opponents Angel Taveras and Clay Pell, the legacy of her pension reform still looms large (remember AFSCME famously hired Forbes' Edward Siedle to investigate Raimondo's handling of the state pension fund, namely her move into hedge funds). How will Raimondo negotiate with public sector unions given a past history?
Pension Lawsuit?
What will come of the pension reform lawsuit? While it was quiet leading up to the election following the failed settlement earlier in the year, watch to see the next steps from Raimondo -- and newly elected Treasurer Seth Magaziner (who appointed a fairly union-friendly transition team) to see what attempts may arise to reach a new settlement -- and what implications that may mean for Raimondo, the architect of the landmark 2011 pension overhaul. Depending on the outcome, watch to see how Raimondo's political star rises -- or falls -- from the outcome of the suit -- and how Raimondo addresses the financial implications if a mediated settlement is achieved.
Budget proposal?
All eyes will be on Raimondo's first budget proposal in January. What will her priorities be? Will there be bold moves to improve the state's business climate? Education, infrastructure, tax code -- how will Raimondo choose to tackle the state's biggest issues? And will the Democratic leadership agree with her agenda?
General Assembly?
For the first time since 1991 -- when Governor Bruce Sundlun took office -- a Democrat will be embarking on a gubernatorial administration, and Raimondo will be working with a Democratic legislature. What will Raimondo's working relationship be with Speaker Mattiello and Senate President Paiva-Weed? Will the General Assembly be in lockstep with a Raimondo agenda -- if not, what will the points of contention be? And with a democratic lock on power, what will the Republicans be able to accomplish?
Mandate issue?
Winning the general election to become Rhode Island's first female Governor with 40% of the vote, Raimondo follows in the footsteps of Governor Lincoln Chafee with winning with less that 50% of the vote. Raimondo however has the advantage over her predecessor by being elected as a Democrat, allowing her to work with leadership in the General Assembly. However, with 40% of the vote, how will the public who didn't vote for her view here policies and proposals? Will Raimondo have to win over the public, or will Raimondo take her support from the business community and forge a path regardless?
Transparency?
While General Treasurer, Raimondo came under fire for lack of transparency for the lack of disclosure of hedge fund fees paid for the state's retirement investments, punctuated by Attorney General Peter Kilmartin ruling that Raimondo could keep certain details of the state's investments from the press. Forbes' Edward Siedle wrote, Does [Kilmartin] seriously believe that hedge and private equity billionaires entrusted with state workers retirement savings should be shielded from scrutiny regarding potential violations of law?
While Raimondo will no longer be calling the shots as the head of the State Investment Commission, all eyes will be her decisions in the Governor's office. How transparent with the Raimondo administration be with the press-- and the public?
