Obama's Recovery: What Does It Mean for RI Politics?

Obama's Recovery: What Does It Mean for RI Politics?

Since taking a pounding in the mid-term elections, President Barack Obama has successfully re-positioned himself as an effective centrist boosting his approval rating over the important 50% threshold and gaining major ground with independents.

Fueling the Obama recovery are a tax cut deal with the Republicans during the lame-duck session, the appointments of prominent businesspeople including new Chief of Staff William Daley and Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of General Electric and a well-received State of the Union address aimed plainly at the center of the American electorate.

In his first two years in office, Obama pushed beyond the limits of public opinion advancing an ambitious agenda with many significant accomplishments--the most prominent of which was a landmark overhaul of our health care system designed to achieve the long-time liberal goal of universal health insurance coverage.

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Polling showed people still liked the President, but were unhappy with his policies. It is important to remember that only about one-in-five Americans identify themselves as liberals and the overwhelming perception in the electorate was that Obama was too liberal.

Of course, Obama’s political predicament was compounded by an economy that did not significantly improve despite enormous amounts of new government spending. There is an excellent economic case to be made that Obama’s actions prevented another Great Depression: but this turned-out to be of little political value.

The new political landscape with the Republicans now in control of the House of Representatives created the opportunity for a mid-course correction and Obama has skillfully adjusted. While one can make too much of the comparison, Obama new positioning puts him more in the “Bill Clinton” mold and this has some major implications for Rhode Island.

While President Obama won big here against John McCain, he has never been particularly popular in Rhode Island. Despite the fact that Rhode Island is a strongly Democratic state, Obama’s approval rating in RI is about the same as the national average. On the other hand, Bill Clinton is a “Rock Star” in the Ocean State.

A more popular Obama will be a boost to the 2012 candidacies of Sheldon Whitehouse and David Cicilline. A more centrist Obama will have greater appeal in the more conservative Blackstone Valley—an area that is critical to Cicilline’s re-election effort.

At the same time, some of the enthusiasm of Rhode Island liberals and progressives for the Obama candidacy is likely to be reduced and the result may be fewer passionate volunteers

Whether or not, Obama can continue to build popularity—only time will tell. Economic improvement will be key. Significant improvement in Rhode Island’s current 11.5% unemployment rate is a critical component. Still, if I were Sheldon Whitehouse or David Cicilline looking forward to tough campaigns in 2012, I would be pleased with Obama’s new approach.

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Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant. His clients include national and state issue organizations, non-profits and elected officials. Rob has served as a general consultant, campaign manager, direct mail consultant and pollster on gubernatorial, congressional, county and local election campaigns. Rob is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at University of Rhode Island, where he teaches courses in both Media and Elections. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and received his Master’s Degree from the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University.