Russell Moore: The GOP’s Curious Case of Catherine Taylor
Russell J. Moore, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™
Russell Moore: The GOP’s Curious Case of Catherine Taylor
Every two years, there’s a running joke among my family members. We place a friendly bet as to when we’ll hear the television or radio news casters remark that “the Rhode Island GOP is in shambles”. As you can imagine, the person who wagers the earliest time is always the winner.
I’m guessing it will be ugly early again this year especially considering that high level Democrat sources tell me that a recent internal poll from the Dan McKee for Lieutenant Governor campaign has the popular Cumberland Mayor and Democratic education reformer at 57 percent of the vote.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTDisconcerting
That’s got to be disconcerting news for the Republicans considering that the Lieutenant Governor’s office is widely considered the GOP’s best chance at winning a statewide office considering GOP candidate Catherine Taylor’s popularity with “progressive” Democrats in Rhode Island.
Just like a starving man will eat just about any edible meal you throw in front of him, the Republicans have embraced Taylor out of desperation to win a statewide election far more than any simpatico ideas. In fact, some of my more conservative friends, the ones who don’t have any illusions about the RI-GOP’s credibility, have nicknamed her Catherine “Chafee” Taylor due to her long association and alliance with the Liberal Chafee family.
Most recently, in 2010, Governor Lincoln Chafee appointed her to become his Director of the Department of Elderly Affairs, despite a lack of much experience in that field. Taylor is never slow to mention that Chafee’s father, the late Senator and Governor John Chafee “raised me politically”. She was a John Chafee staffer for years and, among other things, wrote his speeches.
Catherine “Chafee” Taylor
Prior to her appointment as a Chafee staffer, Taylor ran a brutally negative campaign against incumbent Secretary of State Ralph Mollis. To her credit, she came up just short of prevailing in the race, losing by just a couple percentage points. It was an impressive feat given she was relatively unknown before the race yet came up just short of winning.
Further, it’s more ironic that the establishment Republicans who backed Cranston Mayor Allan Fung and helped him secure the Republican nomination criticized his opponent Ken Block for having volunteered in the Chafee administration to help root out waste and fraud. Block was called a Chafee staffer as if that were a bad thing, yet at the same time back Taylor who was an actual paid staffer for the Democrat Governor.
The GOP supposedly stands for small government, removing redundancies, and saving taxpayer money. Their position in 2010, while disingenuous in getting there (they had a candidate seize the nomination only to back out and support Healey afterwards), was logical from their perspective. The office has very little significance other than to take the Governor’s office should the Governor become incapacitated.
Do we need Lt. Governor or not?
Two years ago, when the party used a candidate to secure the nomination and then backed out to clear the way for independent candidate Robert Healey to attempt to win the office on a platform of doing nothing as Lieutenant Governor, this year the GOP is backing Taylor.
This year, the GOP finds itself in a position where it is not only backing Taylor, a Chafee confidante, but doing so against one candidate who wants to eliminate the office in Libertarian Tony Jones, and another who is the state’s leading education reformer in McKee. McKee has led the fight to open Mayoral Academy Charter Schools in Rhode Island in an attempt to increase school choice and improve student achievement.
Paging Travis Rowley—I’d love to hear him rationalize away this one!
Credibility
None of this is to say that Taylor doesn't have a good chance at winning this election. Polling data taken weeks away from an election doesn't really mean all that much, as polls prior to the Democratic Primary elections proved. And Taylor may very well garner the support of the state’s public sector unions given their utter distaste for McKee’s education reform.
But Republicans deserve to lose this election. When you go around the state arguing that your party is the organization that puts principles before politics, but then end up supporting a candidate that shares very little with your stated principles, whereas the opponents present themselves are reformers—you lose credibility.
And when that happens, it shouldn't be a surprise when the election doesn't go your way.
Strengths and Weaknesses of RI General Election Candidates
Fung - Strengths
Candidate: Allan Fung (R)
Race: Rhode Island Governor
"During his term as mayor, voters have perceived Fung as very likable, and it will be important to capitalize upon that quality. It will take finesse and skill for his campaign operatives to (1) offer voters a sufficient number of reasons to vote for Fung and emphasize his positive qualities and (2) create negative ads that are stylized and mature," said Endress. "Neither of those goals were met in the primary and it's essential that Fung recalibrate his campaign. In addition, Fung's inching toward the middle to capture independents will provide challenges as well, particularly if he gains additional endorsements from right-wing organizations, that don't necessarily play well in Rhode Island."
Fung - Weaknesses
Candidate: Allan Fung (R)
Race: Rhode Island Governor
"Unlike his Democrat opponent, Fung's campaign organization has been somewhat prone to mistakes/misjudgments in the primary. It's unclear whether primary voters were voting for Fung or simply voting against Block. While Fung's negative campaign may have been effective, he won't be able to maintain the same tone for the general election," said Endress. "Fung needs to raise money, and a lot of it. Raimondo will undoubtedly keep the campaign coffers filled, and Fung will need to place increased emphasis on fundraising. For good or ill, money still matters in campaigns, and Raimondo has the presumed edge."
Raimondo -- Strengths
Candidate: Gina Raimondo (D)
Race: Rhode Island Governor
"Raimondo ran a disciplined and stylized campaign. She's an extraordinary fundraiser, exhibits grace under pressure, and able to maintain her focus. She's had to work to soften her image, and that's typical of many women running for office, particularly those who run a controlled campaign designed to highlight their competency for office," said Endress. "Raimondo was able to seamlessly pivot from a conversation about pension reform to a focus on jobs and the Rhode island economy. This means that Fung will need to sharpen his position and proposals to deal with what has long been on the minds of Rhode Island citizens."
Raimondo - Weaknesses
Candidate: Gina Raimondo (D)
Race: Rhode Island Governor
"Raimondo, like most primary winners, will need to move more toward the middle in order to open the way for Republican-leaning independents to vote for her," said Endress. "This could spell some trouble for her recently solidified support in Providence, something that she'll have to work to protect in the upcoming campaign. In essence, Raimondo will have to lean a little bit left and lean a little bit right in order to win, and that task can test even the most talented campaigners."
McKee - Strengths
Candidate: Dan McKee (D)
Office: Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor
The six-term Cumberland Mayor, who defeated Ralph Mollis and Frank Ferri in the Democratic primary, now faces Republican Catherine Taylor in the General Election.
"McKee received significant late funding from sources outside of the state because of his advocacy of charter schools," said Speakman. "It's likely that will continue into the general election, allowing for television ad buys that were helpful in his primary victory."
McKee -- Weaknesses
Candidate: Dan McKee (D)
Office: Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor
Education reform advocate McKee has placed himself at odds in the past with the state's union establishments -- and in a primary season that saw public sector unions take several high profile defeats -- could find himself in the crosshairs of organized labor in the general election.
"He won without union support in the primary and is unlikely to get it in the general," said Speakman.
Taylor -- Strengths
Candidate: Catherine Taylor (R)
Race: Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor
"Taylor is a moderate Republican. History tells us that Rhode Island Democrats will support such candidates in state-wide races. Although all candidates have focused almost exclusively on jobs and the economy, Taylor's message weaves in her ideas about health care, eldercare ad government efficiency," said Speakman. "And her gender matters. The three women on the state-wide ticket should all benefit from the mood for change that appeared on primary day."
Taylor -- Weaknesses
Candidate: Catherine Taylor (R)
Race: Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor
Taylor, who ran a relatively low-profile primary campaign in which she spent the least amount per vote of all statewide candidates, faces an opponent in McKee who orchestrated a higher-profile and higher-spending statewide campaign.
Endress questioned the role that the unions might -- or might not play -- as Taylor has split the ticket on labor from Fung, who supports right-to-work laws, while Taylor does not. "Will Raimondo and McKee campaign together and capitalize upon the diminishing power of public education unions? Will these unions vote for Taylor? Will they eschew endorsing a candidate for Lt. Governor? Will they sit out this election cycle and go to the polls in record low numbers?"
Almonte -- Strengths
Candidate: Ernie Almonte (I)
Race: Rhode Island General Treasurer
"This is a very interesting race to watch. In the primary, Magaziner raised his profile, ran and effective campaign, and is seemingly poised for a victory. But one must not underestimate Ernie Almonte's campaign acumen and his qualifications for office," said Endress. "This may be the race that focuses less on personality (though both have demonstrated likable qualities) and more on their qualifications for office."
Almonte -- Weaknesses
Candidate: Ernie Almonte (I)
Race: Rhode Island General Treasurer
The Democrat-turned-Independent Almonte, who avoided a bruising three-way primary under his former party's umbrella, now faces a two-way race in the general. Without the help of a cross-cutting Republican to lower the threshold needed for victory, the party dynamic might prove problematic.
"Almonte is running as an independent, which brings him no advantage in this case," said Speakman.
Magaziner -- Strengths
Candidate: Seth Magaziner (D)
Race: Rhode Island General Treasurer
"Magaziner's primary campaign was flawless -- no glitches, no fumbles -- leaving no reason to expect anything else in the general election campaign. He is a newcomer to Rhode Island politics, but not to Rhode Island, which helped him in a way that newcomer status did not for Pell. And he's a friend of Bill's," said Speakman -- referring to President Clinton.
Magaziner -- Weaknesses
Candidate: Seth Magaziner (D)
Race: Rhode Island General Treasurer
Magaziner took a great deal of heat during the primary season for his youth and experience -- or lack therof -- but whether that will prove a sticking point in the general election is yet to be seen. "Whatever concerns voters might have had about youth and inexperience were dispelled in the primary campaign," said Speakman.
Carlevale -- Strengths
Candidate: John Carlevale (R)
Race: Rhode Island Secretary of State
The self-professed good government candidate has been a member of such advocacy groups as Operation Clean Government, Rhode Island Statewide Coalition, RI Taxpayers, and Common Cause-RI. Carlevale, who has run previously for Secretary of State, as well as RI Senate and Lt. Governor, lists a detailed reform platform on his website -- including supporting a Constitutional Convention.
Carlevale -- Weaknesses
Candidate: John Carlevale (R)
Race: Rhode Island Secretary of State
The biggest battle for Carlevale is name recognition. "Gorbea's surprise victory garnered her a lot of attention in recent days, boosting her name recognition. Always a good thing for a candidate," said Speakman. "The same cannot be said for Carlevale. According to his website, he has run for office as an Independent, a Democrat, a Cool Moose and a Reform party candidate."
Gorbea -- Strengths
Candidate: Nellie Gorbea (D)
Race: Rhode Island Secretary of State
"Gorbea has the resume for the job, and now the experience as a candidate. She will attract votes from women and Latinos," said Speakman. "Democrats have no reason to move away from her, and nowhere to move. A general election victory should be relatively easy to accomplish."
Gorbea -- Weaknesses
Candiate: Nellie Gorbea (D)
Race: Rhode Island Secretary of State
Apart from fundraising duties which face all primary candidates -- and can prove more difficult for down-ticket contenders -- Gorbea's main issue is continuing to get her message out, and differentiate herself from her opponent. "Gorbea cannot rest on the laurels of her primary victory," said Endress. "A vote for Fung could also be a vote for Republican down ballot races."
Hodgson -- Strengths
Candidate: Dawson Hodgson (R)
Race: Rhode Island Attorney General
As Hodgson looks to capitalize on an opportunity to unseat the current Attorney General, he points both to his track record in the State Senate -- and calling out Kilmartin on his own record -- as his top assets.
"Hodgson is likely to gain momentum in this campaign and pose a real threat to Kilmartin," said Endress.
Hodgson -- Weaknesses
Candidate: Dawson Hodgson (R)
Race: Rhode Island Attorney General
While Hodgson has taken some issues to task with Kilmartin, he has turned away from others, including pressing the AG for action -- or at least accountability -- on the beach contract scandal with saw a state concession contract awarded to State Representative Peter Palumbo, which is not allowed under state ethics law. Facing Kilmartin's war chest and party machine, Hodgson needs to capitalize on any opportunity he can.
Kilmartin -- Strengths
Candidate: Peter Kilmartin (D)
Race: Rhode Island Attorney General
The incumbent Attorney General, like his opponent, had no primary, with the focus being solely on the General Election in November. Kilmartin has the firepower of the Democratic party machine behind him as he looks to repeat election day victory in 2014.
"Kilmartin knows how to campaign and has a fundraising advantage," said Speakman.
Kilmartin -- Weaknesses
Candidate: Peter Kilmartin (D)
Race: Rhode Island Attorney General
"While incumbency is usually a considerable asset for a candidate, in this campaign, establishment candidates have not done well," said Speakman. "Unlike the newcomers, he will have to answer questions about some of the recent scandals besetting state government, in particular 38 Studios and his long tenure in the General Assembly---two aspects that Hodgson has already highlighted (not always accurately)."
Cianci -- Strengths
Candidate: Vincent "Buddy" Cianci (I)
Race: Providence Mayor
The two-time former Mayor is a formidable candidate with talented team surrounding him -- and appears poised to raise close to $1 million in his effort to reclaim the office.
"The question is whether Cianci can capitalize upon those voters who threw their support to Raimondo rather than Tavaras in the primary," said Endress.
Cianci -- Weaknesses
Candidate: Vincent "Buddy" Cianci (I)
Race: Providence Mayor
The two-time former felon seemingly has to address his record at each and every turn, as to be expected. While he continues to acknowledge and dismiss the impact of his past in public forums, the groundswell effort for a new Providence - and a new direction -- is working feverishly to defeat Cianci's effort for a third go at the office
"Cianci has a built-in core of supporters, but he may have limited outlets for additional support," said Endress. "If Buddy were to look for a new constituency, the logical place might be the Millennials. But this group votes in lower numbers and may not find Cianci to be an attractive candidate."
Elorza -- Strengths
Candidate: Jorge Elorza (D)
Race: Providence Mayor
"Elorza has the benefit of Solomon's support, and of the experience he gained as a candidate. Over the course of the primary campaign, he got stronger as a speaker and his audiences got more enthusiastic," said Speakman. "He has the support of the East Siders and now, with Solomon's help, the south side. He has a talented and committed campaign staff and tactical and fundraising help from Smiley, all significant advantages."
Elorza -- Weaknesses
Candidate: Jorge Elorza (D)
Race: Providence Mayor
"Elorza has to be error free in this 2nd phase and also ignite the electorate," said Endress. "He needs to run a forceful and impassioned campaign against Cianci and Harrop, with concrete solutions to longstanding problems in Providence, and a large dose of hope for the future."
Harrop -- Strengths
Candidate: Dr. Daniel Harrop (R)
Race: Providence Mayor
Harrop had the ability to watch from the sidelines as the Democrats duked it out during primary season, and selectively interject himself in the debate when he wanted. Harrop is running hard on the ultimate outsider, anti-Cianci candidate, and pits himself as the fiscally conservative option (he supporters receivership to fix the city's finances, among other platform stances.)
"Harrop may not be a contender, but there is a question about whether he could garner enough votes in a close race between Cianci and Elroza to impact the final results," said Endress.
Harrop -- Weaknesses
Candidate: Dr. Daniel Harrop (R)
Race: Providence Mayor
The Republican faces an uphill battle in the heavily Democratic Providence, which includes garnering name recognition outside of political circles. With both fiscally and socially conservative policy stances, Harrop's right-leaning stances are a tough sell in the capital city.
"It's difficult to see a place for the Republican Harrop in this race, unless something goes very wrong for Elorza," said Speakman.
