The Night the Fat Lady Sang – “The Sunday Political Brunch” -- November 8, 2020
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
The Night the Fat Lady Sang – “The Sunday Political Brunch” -- November 8, 2020
“The Path to Victory” – I’ve said it a million times in this column that the key to winning the White House begins with winning your home state. If my facts are correct, only two U.S. Presidents ever won the White House while losing their home states. One was James K. Polk of Tennessee, and the other was Donald Trump in 2016, where he and Hillary Clinton both resided in New York. Trump changed his legal residence to Florida and won the Sunshine State in both 2016 and 2020, but that was not enough for a second term.
“The Math” – My final prediction in the Electoral College is Biden 306, Trump 232. (Keep me honest on my predictions in last week’s column of 281 Biden, to 257 Trump). I was correct in Biden flipping Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, but I got it wrong in North Carolina, where Trump is likely to prevail. I was also wrong in Georgia and Pennsylvania, where Biden now leads. The one wildcard here remains Georgia where Biden has a 4-thousand vote lead, but there are 8-thousand military ballots yet to be counted. Military ballots trend heavily Republican. Even if it flips back, it will be Biden 290 to Trump 248.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST“We’re Going to Live and Thrive” – Folks, for those of you standing outside on the ledge, please crawl back in through the window. If you were a Trump supporter, the world (and by extension, the United States), is not coming to an end. There is no “doomsday scenario” here. When Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980, the world was going to end according to many Democrats. When Barack Obama won in 2008, the world was going to end according to many Republicans. Guess what? We’re still here! If Biden does a bad job, oust him in 2024! We do it at the ballot box. No one will defect to Canada; and the world is not ending! Our democracy is strong!
“Divided Government” – If you hear any political candidate, campaign operative, or media member say this election is a “mandate,” then call it BS. We may have to wait until a couple of runoff elections for two Senate seats in Georgia come January, but I’m already predicting Republicans will hold a 51-49 majority on the U.S. Senate. Democrats still hold the House of Representatives, but they lost six seats, so their margin is thin. There is no mandate to either side, yet some will claim one.
“The Senate Scare” – Last week I predicted that Democrats would seize control of the U.S. Senate by flipping six Republican seats and flip-flopping the current 53-47 GOP majority. I was wrong! Again, at this point – with two Georgia seats headed for runoff elections – I am predicting a 51 to 49 Republican Senate majority.
“Beep, Beep, from the Veep!” – This week I was on the “Copeland’s Corner” podcast with San Francisco Bay Area comedian and political watcher Brian Copeland. Google the podcast. In any event, I made the case that Kamala Harris was poised to become the most consequential Vice President in U.S. history. Why is that? Well if the Senate is deadlocked at 50-50, she as President of the Senate is the tiebreaking vote. I said she should buy a Winnebago camper and move to the Senate parking lot. She’ll potentially be there all the time. It’s something to keep an eye on.
“The Art of the Crisis Management Deal” – I believe it was former Clinton advisor Rahm Emanuel who once said, and I paraphrase, “Never let a crisis go to waste!” The undergirding principle is the ability to appear as a successful and forceful leader in a disaster. Anyone can lead when everything is great, but the true measure of leadership is a crisis. President Jimmy Carter appeared weak, indecisive, and ineffective during the 1979-80 Iran hostage crisis, and he lost in 1980. President George W. Bush appeared over his head during Hurricane Katrina in September of 2005. Had he faced Katrina in September 2004; he probably would have lost his reelection. Timing is everything in politics.
“The Easy Path for a Trump Win” – A simple, “Wear the Mask” campaign would have saved this presidency. This country has been saved by shared sacrifice in times of trouble, in the Great Depression, and in World War II. A national plea to wear the mask (with him wearing one), would have endeared Trump to the country. It’s that, “We’re all in this together” image, that helps a billionaire businessman transform into a common man. (Yes, I know it’s all staged imagery), but it works! Instead, the country with the best medical care and research in the world, winds up with the highest death rate. It’s an illogical and contradictory message that sunk a presidency.
