When Will Trump’s Tidal Wave Turn Tsunami? - “The Sunday Political Brunch”
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
When Will Trump’s Tidal Wave Turn Tsunami? - “The Sunday Political Brunch”
“Lake Michigan Tidal Wave” – Okay, I grew up right along this Great Lake and know full well that you don’t get tidal waves on these waterways. But clearly former President Donald Trump “swamped” former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina in the Republican primary, winning 68 percent to 27 percent. And President Joe Biden “beached” all of the little-known challengers to his renomination, taking 81 percent of the vote. This is one of the three key swing states that will likely decide this election again in 2024. Trump won the traditionally blue state in 2016 (along with “blue” Wisconsin and Pennsylvania). They were his winning margin. In 2020, Biden put all three states back in the “blue” column in his win for the White House.
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“Exit Polls” – President Biden easily won the Michigan Primary, with 80-plus percent of the Democrat vote. But 13 percent of Democrats – more than 100,000 voters - cast ballots for “uncommitted.” This was an organized effort among Arab Americans in Michigan, where they enjoy one of the highest percentages of the population of any state in the nation. Arab Americans are upset with the Biden policies concerning the Israel-Hamas War. They are concerned about attacks on Palestinians and continued U.S. support of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Thirteen percent could flip this state back to Trump in 2024, not that Arabs will support Trump, it’s because they might just stay home in droves.
“Black Voters” – The key to Trump’s wins in those three states in 2016, was that he outperformed Hillary Clinton among African American votes. No, he did not win all Black age groups, but he polled much higher than previous GOP candidates, especially among young voters disillusioned by their economic opportunities. Biden won a lot of Black voters back in 2020, but their support may be the proverbial “mile-wide, but inch-deep” phenomenon. With inflation, on average, higher over the past four years, and other economic issues, those young Black voters may return to camp Trump.
“The Guide to Super Tuesday” – Fifteen states or U.S. territories will hold primaries on Super Tuesday. It may be a draw. Six states strongly lean to Trump: Texas, Alabama, Alaska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah. Six states lean to Biden: California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, and Vermont. Three contests could go purple: North Carolina, Virginia, and American Samoa, although at least two of these lean Trump. This tells you what a dogfight we may witness in November.
“Border Wars” – We’ve been reporting here for weeks that many polls now indicate border security is the number one issue this year, surpassing the economy which is almost always number one. This is why President Biden and ex-President Trump both visit the U.S.-Mexico border on the very same day. Immigration, legal versus illegal, will drive this race all the way to November. I’m surprised they did not go there sooner.
“Haley’s Presidential Comet?” – The poll numbers indicate she will be marginalized on Super Tuesday. Will she stay in, or will she get out? If she stays too long, she risks embarrassing herself. Remember, if Trump wins, he’s immediately termed-out and is a lame duck. Haley has to assess if she has a better shot of getting out soon and setting her sights on 2028, when the field will be wide open. Haley is only 52 years old, meaning she’s viable through four or five more presidential cycles. My gut says she will drop out on Super Wednesday.
“The Trump Court Battles” – As always this is a mixed bag given how many legal fights he’s in. I’ve lost count. But in a potentially big win for Trump, the Supreme Court announced it will hear arguments in April over whether Trump had presidential immunity for actions on January 6th 2001. Yes, the high court has a 6-3 Republican-appointee majority, but we know justices don’t always vote along predictable party lines. My gut says Chief Justice John Roberts will not side with Trump, so the ruling is at least 5-4. Who else can the minority flip? I bet one of his own three appointees flips as well. Either Justices Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, or Barrett will flop on him for a 5-4 Trump loss. Oh, the intrigue! In an unrelated case, a Court of Appeals ruled Trump must produce the $450 million dollar bond in the New York civil verdict against his companies, even as he appeals. His cumulative legal troubles remain a bad look.
“Hunter Biden Testifies Before Congress” – Presidential son Hunter Biden gave his much anticipated, though closed-door testimony, in his father’s U.S. House impeachment inquiry Wednesday. I hate the government operating out of the sunshine. His lawyer Abbe Lowell weighed in, "They (Republicans) have produced no evidence that would do anything to support the notion that there was any financial transactions that Hunter (benefitted) with his father. Period." Rep. James Comer (R) Kentucky said, “There are also some contradictory statements that I think need further review. So, this impeachment inquiry will now go to the next phase which will be a public hearing,”
“Well, ‘Mug’ my Mug Shot!” – In other interesting political news this week, the state of West Virginia took the unusual step of trying to ban the distribution of jail and prison mugshots which law enforcement often shares with the news media. Fourteen other states have some type of limited ban on mug shot sharing (especially on for-profit, non-governmental websites). But only a couple ban the distribution outright. Look from Nick Nolte, to Gary Busey, and to, yes, even Donald Trump, no one ever takes a good mug shot! It’s worse than the DMV.
“Why Mug Shot Policies Will Soon Matter at the Polls” – As mentioned, fourteen states have some sort of restriction on how and where mug shots can be distributed. It’s a battle over individual rights, where a person is innocent until proven guilty. "When that mug shot's put out there, there is a presumption that someone is guilty in the public's eye. And it's put out all over Facebook, all over everywhere,” said Del. Geoff Foster (R) Putnam County, WV, who sponsors the ban. But law enforcement leaders say protecting all of society is the goal. “When it comes down to the urgency, the exigent circumstances around where a suspect needs to be found quickly. And without being able to identify those folks to the public, it hurts cases" said Rodney Miller, of the West Virginia Sheriffs Association. It’s going to become a national debate soon!