Can PC Make It 3 Big East Wins in a Row vs. St. John’s on Saturday?

Can PC Make It 3 Big East Wins in a Row vs. St. John’s on Saturday?

The Providence College basketball team has won two Big East games in a row to even their Big East record to 5-5.  Admittedly, those two wins were against struggling teams—Georgetown and Seton Hall. They now face a St. John’s team that has gotten progressively better as the season has intensified with Big East games only.  Can the Friars continue their winning streak at Madison Square Garden this Saturday against the Johnnies?

Before we answer that question and jump into the surprising recent dominance of St. John’s, let’s divert for a moment to a new psychological dimension that has now been inserted into the Friars’ season. The not-so-secret reality that injured Bryce Hopkins will not be returning to the team this season was made official this past week by Coach Kim English.  No longer can the PC fans or the existing members of this 2024-25 team hope that the cavalry in the form of Bryce Hopkins will be returning soon to rescue the fortunes of this team.

When I heard the news this week and pondered how Coach English might have broken the news to the team, I was reminded of a similar situation several years ago when Rick Pitino, then coach of a struggling Boston Celtics team, spoke to the press and to Celtics fans after a last-second difficult home loss to Toronto.  In an attempt to make the fans understand that they were going to have to rely on their existing team resources, Pitino pointed to a nearby door at the press conference and famously said, “Larry Bird is not walking through that door anytime soon. Kevin McHale is not going to be walking through that door.  Robert Parrish is not going to be walking through that door.” 

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

 

 

Ironically, now that PC fans and players realize that “Bryce Hopkins will not be walking through that door” this year to give this PC team a marquee player to rescue this season, the Friars will next be facing none other than Rick Pitino and his St. John’s squad this Saturday.

Most Friar fans remember that PC almost beat St. John’s earlier this season on December 20th at the Amica Mutual Pavilion (AMP) in a heartbreaking last-second loss when St. John’s star Zuby Ejiofor tipped in a missed field goal attempt to give the Johnnies a 72-70 win.  The Friars squandered a 16 pt first-half lead to lose, as Coach Pitino employed a stifling half-court press that triggered 17 Friar turnovers and 19 points by St. John’s off of those turnovers.

Some Friar fans might conclude from the close loss earlier in the season to St. John’s that PC may still have a good chance of beating St. John’s this Saturday. Risky logic, I’m afraid. The following five factors apply:

1. The December 20th game was only St. John’s second Big East game of the season.

2. The December 20th game was at the AMP before a raucous PC crowd of 12,100.

3. St. John’s won the December 20th game despite having their worst offensive game of the season.  They shot only 39% from the field, including a head-scratching 3-18 for 3pt attempts; and were a dismal 42% from the free throw line with an 11-26 line.

4.  This Saturday’s PC-St. John’s game is at Madison Square Garden (a venue that half of this year’s PC team has never walked into.

5.  Most importantly, St. John’s has gotten better, a lot better, since that first matchup with PC.

Yes, St. John’s has gotten a lot better.  The Johnnies are 18-3 overall and are now tied for first place in the Big East with Marquette with a 9-1 record.  They have won seven straight Big East games.  They lead the Big East in scoring margin with an 11.1 scoring margin.  Their offense is still modest, as they still haven’t figured out how to hit 3-pt shots.  But they now have to be considered, along with Marquette, UConn, and Creighton, as one of the best teams in the Big East.

How has St. John’s gradually become such a dominant team?  Through defense, including a pressing defense that the Friars were victimized by in December.  Here are some defensive stats that tell the story:            

 

 

Also leading St. John’s January seven-game win surge in the Big East is the gradual dominance of Seton Hall transfer Kadary Richmond.  He was considered one of the top prizes in last year’s transfer portal sweepstakes.  But he started out slowly.  His scoring numbers in Big East games remain modest—11.3 pts/game, behind St. John’s scoring studs, Roy Luis, Jr. at 17.4 pts/game and Zuby Ejiofor at 14.5 pts/game. His importance to St. John’s, however, is his contribution in other areas.  Besides his double figures in scoring, he leads the team in minutes played 32.2/game, he is pulling down 5.2 boards/games, and leading the Johnnies with 4.6 assists/game and 1.9 steals/game.  In short, he is a complete player from end line to end line.

For the last two games, Pitino did not have the full use of their Deivon Smith (shoulder injury), who is also a sparkplug on both sides of the center line with 10.3 pts/game, third on the team with 5.5 boards/game, second on the team with 4.3 assists/game, and second on the team with 1.8 steals/game.  He will likely seem some time against the Friars, but may not play more than 15 or 16 minutes.

For the Friars, in order to have a chance to beat St. John’s, they will have to reduce their turnovers to single digits and make hay with 3-pointers.

You can go to the bank knowing this: Pitino will employ a stifling half-court press if PC leads again at halftime. Can the Friars handle it this time?