Kevin Stacom: Celtics-Mavericks Finals Preview

Kevin Stacom: Celtics-Mavericks Finals Preview

I think I can speak for a lot of people when I say it’s been a long time since I’ve looked forward with as much positive anticipation as with this NBA Finals matchup between the favored Boston Celtics and the emerging Dallas Mavericks.        

This anticipation is fueled by multiple storylines, dramatic subplots, and for the basketball purist and junkie amongst us, fascinating potential moves and counter moves that each team will be required to make in order to gain an advantage against some of the best talent in the game today.    

To begin with, there’s a reason the Celtics are favored to win their 18th Championship. Yes, it’s been noted that it was a relatively easier pathway than anticipated, as just about every contender in the East was riddled with serious injuries to their Star players- The Knicks, Sixers, Cleveland, Pacers, Heat, and Milwaukee, all playing with depleted rosters with such key stalwarts as Julius Randle, Michael Robinson, OG Anunoby, Joel Embiid, Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Halliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, Jimmy Butler, and Giannis Antetokounmpo all sidelined entirely or for key stretches.

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But that shouldn’t negate the fact that Boston took care of business with almost historical dominance, winning 12 of 14 games, including a 6 and 0 won/loss record on the road. And they were able to accomplish that record without their 3rd leading scorer (20.1 points/game), leading rebounder (7.2 rebs/game) and leading shot blocker (1.9/game), Kristaps Porzingas. As I remember, Red Auerbach stated that when asked what the most important thing for a team going into the playoffs is, he replied in typical Obi-Wan Kenobi style, “Be healthy.”

 

Porzingas Factor                

I mention Porzingas because of his obvious importance in this series The cornerstone of Dallas’ defense in the playoffs so far has been their basic approach of “going under” a lot of pick and rolls funneling action towards Dereck Lively (7’1”) and Daniel Gafford (6’10”)- 2 excellent rim protectors and the reason for Dallas having the best defensive rating in the paint since the trade deadline and into the playoffs.

If Porzingas is able to play, he’ll make Dallas pay for that approach, since at 7’3” he takes almost 40% of his field goal attempts from the 3-point range, hitting 38% of them. He’s probably the best pick and pop big in the league, which gives Boston a whole different dimension when he’s on the floor. It’s a huge plus/minus to the good when he’s playing. It wouldn’t be very fair to expect Al Horford to keep up with Dallas’ young, athletic, mobile bigs all game long (He just turned 38 on June 3).

 

Celtics Balance

Boston has 5 NBA All-Stars on their roster. Four that have made multiple All-Star teams (Tatum 5, Brown 3, Horford 5, Holiday 2, Porzingas 1).

Offensively, the Celtics are built for today’s 3-point-oriented game. Boston launches more 3’s as an overall percentage of field goals attempted than any other team in the league. Every one of the 1st eight guys on their rotation is an excellent 3-point shooter ( Tatum 38%, Brown 35%, Holiday 43%, White 40%, Porzingas 38%, Horford 42%, Pritchard 39%, Hauser 40%).

It does seem at times, however, that their strength becomes their weakness when they fall into the trap of having spread the floor in offense; they have too many possessions, isolating going one-on-one, with a lack of ball and player movement. When they move without it, setting up cuts to the basket, especially taking advantage of Brown’s and Tatum's athleticism going to the hoop, they can become almost unguardable.

On the defensive end, Boston has the luxury of length, quickness, and “switchability” at almost every position, allowing a lot of versatility in defending the perimeter. I think Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are the best defensive backcourt in the league, both great at fighting over screens when warranted, hedging, switching and creating havoc in passing lanes.

Tatum has been on a tear so far in the playoffs, averaging over 40 minutes/game with 26 points, 10.4 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.1 steals/game. One of the storylines mentioned earlier is the amount of scrutiny Tatum is under in this his 7th year in the league, and after leading his team to the Finals in 2 of the last three years, can he finally get over the hump and get a ring after making 5 All-Star teams, and four 1st team All NBA teams.

 

Dallas Duo    

Standing in the way of that defining goal for Tatum are the newly arrived and surging Dallas Mavericks. Since the trade deadline, the Mavs were 21- 9, the 3rd best record in the NBA in that span. They acquired through trades before the deadline PJ Washington from Charlotte, and Daniel Gafford from the Wizards. These two players catapulted Dallas from a very mediocre defensive team to one of the best-rated defenses in the league, combining them with two other excellent defenders, Derrick Jones Jr., and the rookie from Duke, Dereck Lively, who progressed to being a major contributing factor way ahead of expected timetables.              

Their newfound chemistry is palpable, as all the supporting role players are primarily focused on defending, rebounding, blocking shots, and setting picks for right now, the most dynamic backcourt in the NBA. You can tell they have zero resentments towards the two stars, Doncic and Irving when it comes to their ball dominance. They enjoy going about their business, trying to be as disruptive as they can be on the defensive end while setting up angles off the pick and roll to convert on high-lob dunks.

 

Eye-opening Doncic and Irving statistics: 

Doncic: 33.9 points/game (1st in NBA); 8.4 rebounds; 9.8 assists; 1.4 steals

Irving: 25.6/game; 5.2 assists: 1.3 steals

             

I can’t remember this much creativity coming out of a backcourt at one time. You can almost feel the helplessness of retreating defenses with these two attacking them, not knowing at what point we can establish a beachhead to impede their advance or when they’ll pull the string on them and make them look foolish.

You can make the case now that Luka is the best player in the league. Teams have tried just about every scheme and combination of defenses to attempt to take control of the game out of his hands- with little or no success. A lot of credit also has to be given to Kyrie Irving, as he’s figured out the precise times in games of when to insert and assert himself at just the right time to put such an inordinate amount of pressure on just about any defense imaginable.            

These NBA Finals have all the makings for a hard-fought, unbelievably competitive series, with star players on both sides bringing such a unique set of skills, defensive intensity, and entertaining creativity.          

In addition, how will the Boston fans react to Kyrie Irving’s return? Will they treat him like a WWF archetypal villain, or will they magnanimously temper their distance out of respect for his newfound rebirth as a resurgent, successful, team-oriented contributor? America does love redemption stories!

 

PS: an old PC favorite, God Shamgod, will be noticeable on the Dallas sideline. Sham has established himself as a valued member of their player development staff.