Super Bowl Preview - 49ers vs Chiefs

Super Bowl Preview - 49ers vs Chiefs

65 preseason games. 256 regular-season games. 10 playoff games. And now, just one game left to play this Sunday in Miami for the Super Bowl. 

Will it be the 49ers winning it all for the first time since 1998, capturing the franchise’s sixth title to tie the Patriots and Steelers for the most in NFL history? Or will it be the Chiefs capturing the crown in the team’s first Super Bowl appearance in 50 years? Wouldn’t it be ironic that in the NFL’s 100th season, the team that wins Super Bowl LIV is the team that lost the first championship game back when it wasn’t even called the Super Bowl.

That’s right, it was called the AFL-NFL World Championship Game back in 1967 when the Chiefs lost to the Packers.

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There’s no shortage of stars in this one starting, of course, with the quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes vs. Jimmy “GQ” Garoppolo. Then, it’s the battle of the talented and charismatic tight ends – Travis Kelce vs. George Kittle. On defense, it’s Frank Clark vs. Nick Bosa rushing the passer. And in the secondary, it’s Tyron “Honey Badger” Mathieu vs. Richard Sherman. All this star power comes under the coaching tutelage of Andy Reid vs. Kyle Shanahan.

Vegas had the Chiefs a one-point favorite two weeks ago and the line has barely moved as Kansas City remains a 1.5 point edge to take home the title, according to OddsShark.com.

How does it break down AFC vs. NFC? Well, since 2010, it’s evenly split at 5-5 (3 wins by the Patriots of course). Since 2000, it’s the AFC winning 12 out of 20 (6 by the Patriots of course). Overall, the NFC leads by the slimmest of margins, winning 27 out of 53 games (27-26).

Now, before we get to our intrepid picks, let’s take a look at some of those tasty matchups.

The Matchups 

First up, it’s the quarterbacks, Garoppolo vs. Mahomes. On paper, it’s a mismatch, Mahomes has thrown for 26 touchdowns against only 5 interceptions while racking up 4,031 yards in only 14 games in the regular season.

And how about those lofty playoff numbers – 8 touchdowns vs. 0 interceptions in rallying the Chiefs to a pair of come from behind wins over the Texans and Titans.

As for Jimmy GQ, he throws nearly 3 times as many interceptions (13) in addition to his 27 touchdowns and 3,978 yards during 16 regular-season games. In the playoffs, he’s been more of a game manager, throwing the ball just 27 times, completing 17 for a touchdown and a pick. Now, that’s not to say that Jimmy G can’t do it as he’s thrown for four touchdowns in three different games this season, two against the Cardinals and the memorable 48-46 road win in New Orleans. It’s more because of the vaunted running attack for SF that they haven’t had to lean on Garoppolo as much.

At tight end, it’s Kittle vs. Kelce. Both are rugged as the day is long and can catch the ball. Where it divides is in the blocking. Kittle is a key cog in that 49ers running game that averaged nearly 150 yards per game in the regular season, 235 yards in playoff victories over Minnesota and Green Bay and pummeled the Packers to the tune of 285 yards in the NFC Championship (220 yards and 4 TDs by Raheem Mostert). Kelce’s the better pass catcher, by a hair and his history. Don’t believe me? Consider their regular season stats in 2019:

Kittle 85 catches 1,053 yards 5 touchdowns vs. Kelce 97 catches -1,229 yards 5 touchdowns

Now, don’t let passing oversights make you overlook the Chiefs defense.

The 49ers, led by Bosa and Sherman get all the headlines on the defensive side of the ball with the number two ranked defense all season, just trailing the Patriots at #1. But, would it surprise you to see that the Chiefs actually gave up fewer points per game – 19.2 vs. 19.4 – than the 49ers in the regular season? It’ll be interesting to see just where Sherman lines up for the 49ers. Will he cover Tyreek Hill all game? Not likely as Sherman tends not to move around to cover a team’s number one receiver. So, it’s more likely that the coverage will be mixed all game long. If the 49ers play zone defense, watch out as Kelce, Hill, and Mahomes have shown they can pick that apart with their speed and route-running.

Finally, how about the coaching contest: Shanahan vs. Reid.

Both are looking for their first Super Bowl win as a head coach although Reid has hoisted the Lombardi Trophy as an assistant in the Packers 1997 victory over the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXI in New Orleans. The Patriots factor huge in both of their losses as well. New England topped Reid and the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX in Jacksonville in 2005. And, who could ever forget the 28-3 comeback by the Pats against Shanahan and the Falcons in Super Bowl LI in 2017. Offensive geniuses they both truly are, but it’s always been the game management portion of the program that’s plagued both gentlemen. Will, it snakebite either one of them in this one? Chances are good that’ll it catch at least one of them.

In these games, there’s always a player or a moment that surprises us all. A Malcolm Butler-type play against the Seahawks on the goal-line to clinch a Patriots win in Super Bowl XLIX in 2015 comes to mind. And how about Larry Brown’s two interceptions, one a pick-six touchdown to ice the Cowboys victory over the Steelers in Super Bowl XXX in 1996. So, in that vein, keep your eyes on LeSean McCoy for the Chiefs. Dogged by illness and injuries in the past few weeks, McCoy could play a huge part in the Chiefs screen game should they go down that road against an aggressive front four for the Niners. Meanwhile, how about Dee Ford for those Niners? Ford, the former Chief whose offsides penalty in the 2018 AFC Championship game against the Patriots potentially cost the Kansas City a shot at last year’s Super Bowl, could get sweet revenge on his old mates with a spotlight game Sunday in Miami.

The 49ers will win if:

• Jimmy Garoppolo throws the ball for 25 times or less.
• Robbie Gould doesn’t miss a field goal.
• The 49ers trio of Tevin Coleman/Matt Brieda and Raheem Mostert combine for 10 catches and 100 yards.

 

The Chiefs will win if:

• The Chiefs run the ball for 25+ attempts.
• Kansas City wins the turnover battle.
• Mecole Hardman scores one or more touchdowns, including on special teams.

 

Prediction:

Both Tyreek Hill and Emmanuel Sanders will catch six passes for over 100 yards and a TD.

49ers 30-27 on a last-minute Robbie Gould field goal reminiscent of Jimmy G’s mentor – Tom Brady leading the way to Adam Vinatieri’s late-game heroics in past Super Bowls.

MVP – Jimmy Garoppolo