2010 Hurricane Season: Jekyll or Hyde?

2010 Hurricane Season: Jekyll or Hyde?

Well, it depends whom you talk to. Ask local surfers and they’ll tell you this was a great hurricane season but the poor folks in Haiti, Mexico and Central America have a far different story to tell.

In spite of the fact that we here in Southern New England came through yet another hurricane season with nary a scratch, the season turned out pretty much as predicted by the experts. All the pre-season predictions were for a mega-season for named storms … and that’s just what happened. There were 19 named storms making this the third most active season on record. The predictions were NOAA (U.S. government official agency)14-23 storms, Weather Services International (WSI) 18 and Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University 18. There were 12 storms that reached hurricane status tying 1969 for the second most ever. NOAA predicted 8-14, WSI and Gray both thought there would be 10. There were 5 major hurricanes … NOAA predicted 3-7, WSI 3 and Gray hit it on the nose with a forecast of 5. All those numbers are well above long term averages.

Experts were able to see before the season that the large, overall weather environment for the season was very favorable for storm formation but it is the shorter-term patterns that determine where storms will form and where they will go. And those patterns are almost impossible to determine months or weeks in advance.Those short term weather regimes locked in dry, warm weather over most of the Eastern U.S. and that blocked storms from hitting much of the East and Gulf coasts. Storms either tracked well out in the Atlantic or into the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Thus Haiti, Mexico and Central America bore the brunt of the hurricane “hits” this year.

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Here in New England, only one storm, Earl, even made a pass at the area and that was over 100 miles southeast of Nantucket. However, several large storms on the Atlantic sent large swells to our coastline, delighting surfers and surf watchers alike.

So, we dodged another “bullet” this year and next year will mark a full 20 years since we’ve had a direct hit from a hurricane. Can we continue to be so lucky?