The 2011 Hurricane Season: More Vulnerable This Year?

The 2011 Hurricane Season: More Vulnerable This Year?

Last year at this time all of the major hurricane forecasting groups were predicting a mega-season for storm formation and most were right on in predicting the number of named storms. There were, in fact, 19 of which 12 became hurricanes. Five of those became major hurricanes with winds in excess of 110 mph. Remarkably once again the coastal areas from Texas to Maine lucked out as not one of the storm centers made landfall on the U.S. coast as a hurricane. Also, there were no land-falling hurricanes in the U.S. in 2009 so, as we look ahead to this season, the most ominous statistic is that this has not happened for 3 years in a row in nearly 150 years. With that in mind let’s take a look at this year’s predictions.

All of the forecasting groups surveyed are once again expecting activity to be well above average. They see most of their forecasting parameters favoring many more than the long-term averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Accuweather expects 15 named storms of which 8 will become hurricanes and 4 of those will be major (Category 3 or higher). WSI, a Weather Channel company, is predicting exactly the same numbers while the NOAA hurricane meteorologists, the official U.S. Government predictors say that 12-18 storms will form, 6-10 of those will become hurricanes including 3-6 major storms. The Colorado State University group that started all of this several years ago foresees 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 that will become Category 3 or higher. Like last year, no big disagreements here. The question is are they all just locked in to the same data sets or are their different methodologies pointing to the same conclusion? A consensus conclusion that was spot on last year.

Significantly, they are also in agreement that coastal areas from the Gulf of Mexico to New England will be far more vulnerable this year with storms forming closer in and being forced farther west by a stronger mid-Atlantic high pressure system that will be placed a bit farther north than usual. For example, the forecasters at Colorado State expect the strike probability to be 10% for Rhode Island, not a very big number, but higher than the 6% “normal”. They are predicting 44% for North Carolina where the norm is 28% and a whopping 71% chance for Florida where the normal is 20% lower.

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So, that’s the run down. Now we wait and watch for Arlene (1) to form and see if we ever get as far down the list as predicted to the birth of either Ophelia (15) or Philippe (16).