Countering China’s Grand Strategy - Mackubin Owens, MINDSETTER™

Countering China’s Grand Strategy - Mackubin Owens, MINDSETTER™

A successful US grand strategy must pit US strengths against China’s weaknesses, which include reliance on imports for foodstuffs and oil/gas as well as demographics. Although China possesses vast coal reserves, it lacks oil and natural gas. In addition, China’s population is aging and thanks to the “one child per family” policy from the Mao era, there is a serious imbalance between the sexes, with men outnumbering women by a substantial margin.

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A key to countering China’s grand strategy is to revitalize an US=led Asia-Pacific alliance system that includes not only Japan, Australia, and the Republic of Korea but also those countries that have claims to the South China Sea. Since China’s regional tactics are most effective when it can take advantage of the highly asymmetrical power differential between Beijing and each of its neighbors, the United States can effectively counter this strategy by creating and strengthening a network of capable allies that are unified in their opposition to the PRC’s aggression. In other words, Washington should seek to make the competition multilateral wherever possible.

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The United States needs to make its commitment to the defense of Taiwan clear. Deterrence works only if the power to be deterred takes the commitment seriously. The problem with ambiguity is that it can lead to miscalculation. Of course, effective deterrence requires prudence. The United States must recognize the relative “value of the objective” and avoid provocation. But it must also understand that Beijing only responds to power.

A little remarked—but critical—Chinese weakness is that, like France during its centuries-long struggle with Britain, China has a continental frontier that can be exploited strategically. France had the power and resources to challenge Britain at sea, but by means of adroit diplomacy and finance, Great Britain was able to divert France’s attention away from the maritime realm by creating evolving continental coalitions funded by British money and supported by limited military resources. The foremost examples of British strategy against France are the War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714) and the Seven Years War (1756-1763).

China faces unrest on its western frontier as well as a hostile India to the south. A little-appreciated diplomatic triumph of the George W. Bush administration was increased cooperation with India that can be leveraged against Beijing. If China is strong in the Western Pacific, it is weak in the Indian Ocean. This weakness can be leveraged to the advantage of the United States and its allies.

Although the United States should continue to counter the Chinese A2/AD strategy in the Western Pacific, it should make it clear to China that the United States and its allies will respond to its aggression by threatening on the one hand its ability to operate beyond the “first island chain”—the series of islands running parallel to the Chinese coast and on the other the Indian Ocean. If the PRC seeks to deny access to the South China Sea, the United States and its allies can return the favor by making it clear to the PRC that in the event of a conflict, the United States is capable of, and has the will to deny China’s access to the wider Pacific and the Indian Ocean, threatening the vital sea-lanes that run through the Strait of Malacca and other choke points. This “distant blockade” has the potential to choke off Beijing’s access to the Middle Eastern oil upon which it desperately depends

In the technological arena, the Unites States should make maintaining an edge over China in the development of AI and 5G a priority. The United States cannot cede leadership in the fourth industrial revolution to China. In military terms, the Pentagon must prioritize developing technologies and systems that will be pivotal to U.S. and allied military supremacy in the Western Pacific. These include hypersonic weapons, stealth bombers, ground-mobile missile delivery systems, long-range anti-ship missiles, improved ballistic missile defenses and underwater unmanned vehicles. These systems will depend on cutting-edge artificial intelligence-enabled software and innovative warfighting doctrines.

In the economic realm, the United States can use financial leverage to counter Beijing’s BRI by stressing that it seeks independent and prosperous partners while China seeks dependent and indebted vassals for exploitation. Washington should act to undercut Beijing’s ability to utilize debt to coerce, control or intimidate other countries in the region.