Is Clay Pell the Next Lincoln Chafee?

Is Clay Pell the Next Lincoln Chafee?

Is Clay Pell the next Lincoln Chafee?

Both come from well-established Rhode Island families with strong political traditions, and immense personal wealth.

Both were educated at elite, out-of-state private boarding schools and Ivy League colleges, and spent their early careers outside of Rhode Island.

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Chafee and Pell are patricians, with identifiable wives of impressive pedigree (and their own personal wealth) -- and both have aspired for the State's highest office.  

See Chafee-Pell Slideshow BELOW

Barbara Bush Questions American Political Dynasties

“If we can’t find more than two or three families to run for higher office, that’s silly. Because there are great governors and great eligible people to run,” Barbara Bush said in an interview on C-Span, of son Jeb Bush possibly running for President, as noted in Forbes.

Bush continued, “And I think that the Kennedys, Clintons, Bushes -- there are just more families than that. And I'm not arrogant enough to think that we alone (are raising presidential candidates)."

Pell will enter a race that already includes Providence Mayor Angel Taveras and Rhode Island General Treasurer Gina Raimondo on the Democratic side, and Cranston Mayor Allan Fung and former Moderate Party head Ken Block on the Republican side.

The Name Game

"Pell enters the race with a name and pedigree that he can use to his advantage in campaign ads. Over the years, Rhode Island has had a number of legacy candidates and they generally do well in this state. We’re likely to see side-by-side visuals of the candidate and Senator Pell, as well as statements about continuing the family legacy," said RIC Professor of Communications Valerie Endress. "Even those voters too young to remember the Senator will be reminded of the origin of their Pell grants. And, too, the Pell name will offer him some fundraising advantages for money not already locked up."

Endress noted, however, "Pell's ability to self-fund certainly helps, but fundraising isn't always just about the money. Pell will need to actively fundraise to help him to build loyalty and a base of support that will help him with his ground game in the campaign."

Like Chafee, Pell's early career was forged out of state. After college, Pell followed his grandfather's footsteps into military service, graduating first in his class the Coast Guard Direct Commission Officer School. Pell was a White House fellow prior to serving as Director for Strategic Planning on the National Security Staff, and was most recently appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary for International and Foreign Language Education last April.

Chafee had worked as a farrier out west and in Canada prior to his return to Rhode Island -- and entrance into politics. Serving as a delegate to the Rhode Island State Constitutional Convention, Chafee was elected to the Warwick City Council and then Mayor of Warwick, prior to serving as Senator, and then finally Governor.

"Chafee came back and went into the grassroots, the city council, and worked his way up to the top positions," noted veteran political pollster Victor Profughi. "If Pell's handlers try to sell him exclusively on his DC connections -- and Pell name -- expect that he'll be boning up quite a bit on Rhode Island politics."

Profughi added, "Typical voters aren't all that engrossed in minutiae, in Rhode Island idiosyncrasies. They will be concerned with the need for jobs, and economic situation here. I think people around Pell will be suggesting that -- the need to put out specifics."

Race Prospects

Darrell West, of the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., offered his prognostication for Pell, who like Chafee comes armed with name recognition, money, and ambition.  

"Clay Pell has considerable potential because he is a bright young man who comes across well. He has the ability to self-fund, which gives him an easy way to launch his candidacy. His progressive politics probably will play well in the Ocean State," said West.  

"The biggest uncertainty concerning him is his youth and the fact he has been out of state for much of his adult life. The other candidates have been immersed in Rhode Island and know the major players," said West.  "Pell will have some start-up challenges as he develops his campaign. It will take time to build an organization and develop a political network that will support his campaign. It is hard to predict how he will do given his lack of prior time in Rhode Island."

Profughi thought that the familiar political name would ultimately prove strong, despite the fact that unlike Chafee, the Pell name has not been on the Rhode Island ballot since 1990.  

"Rhode Island voters are not spring chickens -- we have an older electorate on average as a whole, and as Rhode Islanders we have a long legacy of not going too far from where we are. Not to mention that the Pell name continues to be out there with the City of Newport and Salve Regina. I think it's definitely a factor still."