Should a 100-year storm hit Rhode Island, the communities at the greatest risk for severe flooding—and most vulnerable to it—are Warwick, Providence, Cranston, and Newport, according to data from the Rhode Island Emergency Management Agency.
The data, contained in the 2011 State Hazard Mitigation Plan, also considers the risk and impact of several other major natural disasters, including severe winds, blizzards, and even earthquakes and tornadoes. In the plan—which has recently been updated—state emergency management officials assigned scores to each of the 39 cities and towns in Rhode Island that measure both the risk of a major natural hazard happening and how vulnerable each community is to that hazard.
The numbers show that the communities that face the greatest threats from natural hazards of any kind are: Providence, Warwick, Pawtucket, Cranston, and East Providence. The results for each community are displayed in the below slides, including an overall score for that’s community’s risk and vulnerability to natural hazards.
The scores take into account both the risk posed by a natural disaster as well as the vulnerability of a community to that disaster. Risk is measured in terms of the chances of the disaster happening, as well the land area that could be impacted and how intense the disaster might be. Higher scores mean either there is a greater the chance that something might happen, that it might be more intense, or that it might affect a larger area—or all three.
Vulnerability is defined by the size and composition of the population, local economy, environmental resources, and the number of critical facilities like hospitals, schools, emergency shelter, and utilities. Communities with more residents, a larger local economy, more natural resources, a higher number of critical facilities, are more vulnerable than others.
Generally speaking, the higher the score, the more at-risk and vulnerable a particular city or town is to a natural disaster. Providence and Warwick, which are among those at the top of the list, are both larger in population size and economic activity than most other communities, and also are situated along the state coastline, putting them at a higher risk for natural disasters, such as a hurricane. (A more detailed description of the methodology precedes the slides.)
Hurricanes: Worst-case scenario many times worse than Sandy
Barely more than a year after Sandy, hurricanes remain the natural disaster that Rhode Islanders worry most about—and with good reason: Sandy devastated beaches along the state’s south shore, left more than 122,000 Rhode Islanders without power, and cost the region about $62 billion. (For survey results see PDF pages 29 and 30 here.)
But Sandy was hardly the worst that could happen here, according to Janet Freedman, a coastal geologist with the Coastal Resources Management Council, a state agency that regulates coastal development and has been involved in the state’s natural hazard planning efforts. “We’ve been spared our worst-case scenario,” Freedman told GoLocalProv.
A worst-case scenario would be something like the Hurricane of 1938—an event often described as a 100-year storm, but which might be better understand as the kind of storm which has a one percent chance of happening in any given year, according to Freedman.
Just how much worse would a 100-year storm be? The storm surge from Sandy that devastated Misquamicut Beach swept about 1,500 feet inland in Westerly. The surge from a 100-year storm, on the other hand, would drive inland about two and a half to three times farther, slamming into Route 1A in Westerly, according to Freedman.
Statewide, the impact from a severe storm surge would vary, depending on elevation. When flooding from rainfall and overflowing rivers is taken into account, nearly 100,000 acres of land area—almost a sixth of the total area in the state—could be under water after a 100-year storm. A severe hurricane would put an estimated 129,962 residents at risk of evacuation and could damage more than 12,000 homes, businesses, and other buildings along the coast, state hazard planning documents show. (See below slides for a breakdown for each affected community.)
Is Rhode Island ready for a ‘100-year storm’?
So is Rhode Island ready for the next 100-year storm?
“No, I don’t think so,” Freedman said.
The issue, she said, is that Rhode Island has a lot of older buildings constructed before modern buildings codes were in place—like New Jersey, which, along with New York City, bore the brunt of Sandy.
Across the state, each community is bracing for the next natural disaster. In addition to the state Emergency Management Agency, each city and town has its own designated emergency management director. In some places, a fire chief or building code official does double duty. But in others, it’s a full-time job.
State and local officials have a few options when it comes to preparing for the next hurricane, Freedman said. One obvious preparation measure is ‘large-scale beach nourishment.’ More difficult is the relocation of homes that are directly in the path of the next storm surge. “They’re really hard decisions that we … as a society are going to have to make,” she said.
In general, if the cost of repairing a flood-damaged building exceeds 50 percent of the home or business value, owners must comply with a FEMA regulation mandating that they elevate their homes. In Westerly, the local emergency director said the community has been applying for FEMA grants to help fund the work. On Friday, the town announced that it had received $903,816 in federal and local grants to pay for work on eight homes.
Hundreds of buildings will likely need to be elevated above flood levels, according to Amy Grzybowski, the emergency director for Westerly whose official title is Director of Planning, Code Enforcement and Grant Administration. Many homeowners are taking the initiative and paying for the work themselves, thanks to a new federal law, the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012, which makes flood insurance premiums prohibitively high for owners whose homes are below flood elevation levels, she said.
In Pawtucket, the city’s emergency director, Norm Menard, said he is most worried about hazards posed by wind and snow, followed by floods. He said city demographics—in particular its large senior-aged population, makes it more vulnerable to heavy snow, ice, and wind storms. As part of its preparation for the next major storm, he said the city is applying for a FEMA grant to upgrade the emergency generator at Jenks Jr. High School, which is the main shelter in Pawtucket.
Over the last year, the city has also reconstituted its Citizens Emergency Response Team, with 12 new citizen volunteers trained to help our in major disasters. Pawtucket also held a full-scale evacuation exercise at Fogarty Manor on Roosevelt Avenue and, last month, held a municipal flu clinic, according to Menard.
Rising sea levels expected to worsen disaster risk
As sea levels rise, Rhode Island’s risk from storm-related flooding will only grow, according to Freedman.
Since 1930, there has been an 8- to 10-inch rise in sea levels. The rise will accelerate over the next century. In approximately the next 25 years, levels could be about a foot higher. By mid-century, they could be about 18 inches higher, according to Freedman. Already, she said some coastal Rhode Islanders have to plan their day trips around high tides which flood roads around their homes.
The Coastal Resources Management Council in the midst of a multi-year study the impact of rising sea levels on coastal communities, Freedman said. The plan will outline how the coast will change and what measures may be necessary to protect residents of coastal communities for severe flooding in the future.
But a major 100-year storm remains a bigger threat than rising sea levels. “That’s the mosquito. The ’38 hurricane is probably the malaria. That’s the big issue,” Freedman said.
Other disasters: from tornadoes to earthquakes
Of course, it’s not just hurricanes and winter storms that emergency planners are considering. The 2011 state natural hazard plan also eyes the possibility of an earthquake or tornado striking Rhode Island. Last week, state officials released an updated 2014 plan which also looks at wildfires and droughts.
Which of those has emergency management officials most worried? “We’re worried about everything. That’s our job,” said Armand Randolph, the public information officer for the Rhode Island Emergency Management Agency.
Rhode Islanders are most worried about hurricanes, with 60 percent saying it’s the highest threat, according to a state survey done as part of the 2014 plan. Roughly as many said tornadoes, earthquakes, droughts, and wildfires were the lowest threats.
But the Ocean State is no stranger to those natural disasters either. In the last one hundred years, 29 earthquakes have rocked Rhode Island, state records show. The most serious earthquake on record is a magnitude 4.6 earthquake whose epicenter was in North Kingstown in 1951. That damaged nearly 8,000 buildings—100 were beyond repair—and cost $1.3 billion. The last earthquake in the state for which exact figures were available was in 2012. The magnitude was 1.
There is a 50 percent probability that a “very damaging magnitude 5.0 earthquake” could hit anywhere in New England in a 50-year period, according to state officials.
Tornadoes also are not unknown in this state. Between 1972 and 2008, ten tornadoes ripped through Rhode Island. Most were low-intensity events, with three-second wind gusts of 86 to 110 miles per hours. The total damage over that period was $3.5 million, state records show. Although tornadoes are uncommon here, state officials warn that “they may occur anytime and anywhere” and that the “situation may be more dangerous… because Rhode Island residents do not expect severe tornadoes and are ill-prepared to respond to a tornado strike.”
Droughts and major wildfires are also uncommon but a few have left their mark on state history. Between 1987 and 1988, a drought in the southern part of Rhode Island cost $25 million in crop damage. The largest wildfire on record in the state is the Coventry Fire which scorched 18,000 acres in the spring of 1942. An estimated 614 square miles—about half of the total land area of the state—are developed areas that are at risk of a wildfire because they border forests and other wild lands, according to the 2014 natural hazard mitigation plan.
Public can weigh in
The state is now just completing its federally mandated three-year update to the 2011 plan. The 2014 plan was posted in late November, in draft form online. State officials are accepting public comments on it until this Friday. Click here to view the plan and submit a comment.