Campaign 2024 Starts Right Now – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - November 15, 2020
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Campaign 2024 Starts Right Now – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - November 15, 2020
“By the Numbers! – When people talk about how divided this nation is, they are very accurate, at least in this era. The two major parties are almost at parity, according to the numbers. In the Electoral College it was 306 Biden, to 232 Trump (56 to 44%). The U.S. Senate is 50 GOP, 48 DEM, with the two Georgia seats set for a January special election. In the U.S. House it’s now 220 DEM to 208 GOP, with seven seats yet to be decided. The nation’s governors’ mansions are now 27 Republican, to 23 Democrat. In my lifetime, I don’t remember all those numbers aligning that closely. That makes everything more competitive!
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“First Stop 2022” – Traditionally, the party in power at the White House loses seats in Congress in the first midterm election. Republicans need a minimum of 10 seats to flip the House, which is ultimately doable. Even if they lose Senate control in 2020, they are likely to win it back in two years. The possibility of divided government may be a good thing. President Bill Clinton accomplished more after 1994, when Republicans took control of both chambers of Congress, than he did when Democrats controlled both chambers for his first two years in office. Divided government means “politics makes for strange bedfellows,” and yes, stuff gets done!
“Why the Cycle Never Seems to End?” – In my academic lectures, I always refer to what I call, “The Four M’s of Politics!” They are money, manpower, message and media strategies. You must fundraise. You must build a staff. You must define your positions, and then you must devise how you will deliver all that to voters. There is a finite number of people who can help you do that. Staffers who worked for Elizabeth Warren, Jeb Bush, Amy Klobuchar, or John Kasich are all looking for suitors. But you must snap them up early before another candidate does. You also want to appeal for donations from interest groups that make big donations. It’s very competitive. The last horse out of the starting gate is in trouble!
“So, Who’s Looking at 2024?” – Given his very competitive nature, you must wonder about President Trump running again in 2024. The man doesn’t like to lose, and he usually doesn’t. He’s combative and loves a fight. Could we see another Trump v. Biden race in 2024? A lot will depend on their health – Biden would be 81; Trump 78. Rematch? Maybe.
“The Others” – On the Republican side you can expect a crowded field (with, or without Trump). Vice President Mike Pence was a trusted and loyal advisor to Trump, much like Biden was to Obama. He’s a solid Midwest conservative with experience in the U.S. House and as Governor of Indiana. He has the resume, and in 2024 will be 65 years old, and is still in his prime. Statistically, approximately 25 percent of U.S. Vice Presidents eventually get the top job. It’s the best path to the Oval Office.
“Who Else?” – Topping my list is former U.N. Ambassador and Gov. Nicki Haley, (R) South Carolina. She was tough as nails with Iran on the nuclear issue, in fact, way tougher than her boss. Former Governor John Kasich, (R) Ohio, is a centrist who can work with both sides of the aisle. As Chairman of the House Budget Committee in the mid-1990s, he was crucial in balancing the federal budget with Democrat President Clinton.
“The Bush Factor” -- I don’t think the Bush family is done yet. They felt dissed by Trump and would like paybacks. Former Gov. Jeb Bush, (R) Florida, will be 71 in 2024, but it seems age isn’t the barrier it once was. If he walks into the political “card game,” he comes with Florida and Texas securely in hand, and likely retakes Arizona and Georgia from the Democrats. If he could flip Wisconsin (doable), he and Biden would tie at 269 Electoral College votes. The U.S. House would have to decide. Wow!!
“Cruzin’ to the White House” – Senator Ted Cruz, (R) Texas is a popular conservative who finished second to President Trump in the 2016 primary cycle. Cruz is a Cuban American which will give him great pull amongst Hispanic voters, now the nation’s largest minority group. Cruz was also considered by Trump for Supreme Court appointments, so his legal acumen is a big asset.
“Biden Goes Bye?” – Let’s be honest here. Given his age and health history, one must wonder if Joe Biden will be a one-term president. Certainly, VP Kamala Harris is a contender. The Democrats have a much deeper and younger bench than they used to. Gov. Gavin Newsom, (D) California is out there, and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, (D) South Bend, Indiana are viable candidates.
Who are your picks for President in 2024, for both parties? Please leave a comment below.
