Horowitz: Support Building for Climate Change Action; But Firming Up is Needed

Horowitz: Support Building for Climate Change Action; But Firming Up is Needed

More than 8 in 10 Americans, and even 6 in 10 Republicans, believe that if nothing is done to reduce greenhouse gases, global warming will become a very serious or somewhat serious problem, according to a new poll conducted by The New York Times, Stanford University and Resources for the Future, an environmental research organization.  Similarly, the poll reports that nearly 3 in 4 Americans say the federal government should be taking substantial action on climate change including a little over half of Republicans.

Perhaps most important for generating long-term support for policies aimed at reducing the generation of greenhouse gases, 81% of Americans now believe that climate change is at least partially caused by human activity. This is a 9 point increase from two years ago.  More than 7 in 10 Republicans now believe human activity is at least partially responsible for our warming planet.
This poll shows that public opinion in the United States on this issue is finally catching up with the strong consensus of scientists. This bodes well for the United States continuing its current strong leadership on the issue beyond the tenure of President Obama who has made it a high priority.

By far, the most encouraging results in the poll are the substantial movement by Republicans on the issue.   A substantial percentage of Republican voters now say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who says climate change is a hoax or who adopts the Party’s new talking point mantra, “I’m not a scientist, so I don’t know.”  Unfortunately, this is not the case for Tea Party adherents and is likely to be less the case among core conservative Republican primary voters.

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Still, this movement among Republican voters creates some potential political space for Republican candidates who are supportive of action on climate change and is also likely to soften some of the hard edges of opposition from some more mainstream establishment Republicans. As the New York Times pointed out in its article about the poll, in 2012 only one candidate John Huntsman, in an expansive Republican Presidential primary field, was willing to explicitly accept the science on global warming.

There is much good news in this poll for advocates of strong action on climate change, but it is important to recognize that opinion on this issue is still fluid.  Less than half the public says that they have strong feelings on the issue and it is still is far down on any list of voters’ issue priorities.

As Stanford’s Jon Krosnick, who designed the poll questionnaire, has previously pointed out, about 30% of the electorate are so-called swing voters on climate change. These are people with low confidence in scientists who are very influenced by the weather.

Locking in the public support essential for the aggressive policy response needed to match the scale of the problem, requires an ongoing and comprehensive public education effort. The encouraging news in this poll is a reason to re-double efforts that are beginning to work—not a sign that it is time to say “Mission Accomplished.”

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.

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