John Perilli: Buddy Cianci’s Long, Sad Comeback Trail
John Perilli, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™
John Perilli: Buddy Cianci’s Long, Sad Comeback Trail
Buddy Cianci is far from alone in attempting a political comeback. After writing the manual on it in 1990, his first return, Buddy’s example has been followed by such fallen stars as Newt Gingrich, Mark Sanford and Anthony Weiner. And now that Rhode Island’s most infamous mayor-turned-memoir-writing-marinara-seller is going to have another try at coming back, it’s time to examine this oddest of political tropes.
Option 1: The Apologetic Route
No two political comebacks are completely alike, but they tend to fall into one of two types: the apologetic and revisionist routes. Buddy will have to take one route or the other: It’s a near-impossible balancing act to pull off both.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTThe apology route speaks for itself: A disgraced former politician publicly owns up to his or her sins, making sure to cast a positive light on themselves and emphasize what they have supposedly learned.
This route has a unique pull on our hearts and minds. America’s “civic religion”––that sacred combination of our beliefs in freedom, the Constitution and manifest destiny, in which democratic politics plays an important part––is highly Judeo-Christian. This means that the forgiveness narrative is especially strong, holding an almost holy sway over us.
It’s important, with this route, to have the proper tone––that is, to appear sufficiently sad and contrite to come across as authentic. Modern exponents of this theory have made this clear. Mark Sanford, the former South Carolina Governor who disappeared from office for a week on an extramarital affair, came back and won a Congressional seat after chanting a refrain of humility and lessons learned. Rhode Island’s very own former Treasurer Frank Caprio has taken this route as well. He has openly owned up to telling off President Obama in 2010 during his campaign for Governor, and is now seeking his old office on a message of apology.
The only trouble with this route is: If your trespass was bad enough, reminding people of it might not do you any favors. For example, former Congressman Anthony Weiner, who was trying to recover from a sexting scandal as he ran for Mayor of New York, was done in by a second wave of improprieties. Similarly, if Frank Caprio’s primary opponent, liberal investor Seth Magaziner, can remind everyone enough of Caprio’s wrongs, it might be to the former Treasurer’s doom.
This does not seem like the route Buddy Cianci will take. His public style is too brash, too caustic for him to countenance an apology. While he has talked about how prison has changed him, he has explicitly avoided discussing his legacy, a far cry from saying sorry. If he does change his tune, though, he had better do it soon. He has quite a bit to apologize for. His sins are not venial, but grave and systematic: He would have to remake his entire image to renounce them. Still, his campaign is young, and Buddy may yet decide to swallow his pride and take confession.
Option 2: The Revisionist Route
Or, if that is too much trouble for him, Buddy could take the second track: the revisionist route. This strategy involves downplaying, even outright denying one’s previous wrongdoings. It works best if there is a good span of time cushioning the politician from his or her mistakes.
One of the most famous practitioners of the revisionist comeback is former Republican U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich. After spending years in DC as the consummate political insider, including two terms as Speaker, he was hit with an ethics violation and resigned his post in 1999. Then in 2012, over a decade removed from his departure, he had the gall to run for President as an outsider.
This, of the two choices, seems the route Buddy is most likely to pursue. He has already led off his campaign by downplaying his felonious past. It has also been the requisite decade since the lid came off Plunder Dome: what has Cianci to lose?
The way to counter this, of course, is to simply call it out, something which candidates like Democratic mayoral hopeful Brett Smiley have wasted no time doing. It’s no guarantee, though. If the message does not stick, you have already spent breath defining yourself, and pivoting late looks desperate. It certainly didn’t work in 1990, and whether it will work in 2014 remains to be seen.
A Strange Sadness
No matter which route Buddy chooses, though, and no matter how many candidates after him follow his example, there will always be something a bit depressing about a political comeback. In a country where someone with a certain background can get locked up a decade or more for petty theft, an elected comeback seems an unfair product of political privilege. Public approval might be fickle, but it takes a long time for a die-hard base of supporters to move on. Coming back to them after a disgraceful absence almost seems like a betrayal of their trust.
And make no mistake: Buddy still has that solid base of support. They will come out in force for him in November, regardless of his previous sins, and with a fragmented field they will be even stronger. But are they still enough in number to carry Buddy to victory by themselves? How Buddy conducts his campaign, whether it be by apology or revisionist history, and how far our memories are removed from Buddy’s past, will truly determine whether Providence’s saddest story will get another chapter.
Leaders React to Buddy Cianci Running Again
Darrell West
Darrell West - Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at Brookings and former Head of the Taubman Center at Brown University
West says:
The race is wide open with Cianci's entry. He has a four-way race which lowers the threshold for winning. It is conceivable someone could win with 30 percent of the vote and that person could be any of the four.
Cianci has to explain why he deserves another shot after having gone to jail. Many will be skeptical but he doesn't need a majority to win.
Ron St. Pierre
Ron St. Pierre - Host of News Radio 920 and served as Buddy Cianci's producer on Cianci's radio show. St. Pierre is a member of the Rhode Island Radio Hall of Fame
St. Pierre says:
Buddy enters a crowded field which is exactly the kind of race he thrives on. He hits the ground running thanks to the constant exposure from his radio and TV jobs while others in the race are just launching their attempts to define themselves to potential voters. He brings a bigger than life character to the race that will certainly grab the national spotlight but the big question is how Providence and Rhode Island will be perceived under that microscope. Do we really want the Wall Street Journal and other media outlets rehashing tales of corruption as we try to reshape our image and get out of the fiscal doldrums?
EDITOR'S NOTE: An earlier version gave the in correct attribution to this statement. It was previously attributed to Bill George.
Victor Profughi
Victor Profughi - Adjunct Professor at the University of Rhode Island and the founder of Quest Research, a political polling agency. He is one of the most well-respected pollsters in the market.
Profughi says:
A multi-party (candidate) race is exactly what Buddy needs to have his best shot.
Buddy's decision to run as an Independent it seems to me gives him more time to put his campaign together. Also, I'm confident that he polled his options and the data showed him that his best shot was an Independent in what appears to be a four person race in November. Harrop and Adrian will probably pull a relatively small number of votes that Buddy wouldn't have gotten anyway. Very likely somewhere between 38 and 40% of the vote will produce a winner. Buddy almost certainly can count on at least 35% or so before he does anything....so the main unknown is just how many votes can Adrian and Harrop get.
And the other very significant variable will be what will the Latino voters do, but in the primary--where in theory they could pick a winner who they might then well stay with come November.
As for parties, the Republican party in Providence is virtually non-existent....as for the Democrats, as a party organization they haven't been much of a factor in at least 35 years or so.
It will be interesting to see how effectively Buddy is able to mobilize an organization, with boots on the ground. I would never count him out.
As far as the Democrats are concerned for their free for all primary, Solomon probably gets an additional boost absent Cianci.
Tom Finneran
Tom Finneran - Former Massachusetts Speaker of the House and GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™
Finneran says:
I never met him but I'm aware of his legend. By all accounts, he put Providence on the map as an against-all-odds very successful city. As politics becomes ever more bland, ever more vanilla, and ever more pedestrian, Buddy would bring energy and life to the campaign in vivid color.
Valerie Endress
Valerie Endress, Professor of Communications at Rhode Island College
Endress says:
The dynamic of the race certainly changes with Buddy Cianci’s announcement. For good or ill, Buddy doesn’t need to introduce himself to those who are most likely to vote in a primary election. So, unlike other candidates, he won’t have the same challenges. He’ll receive national attention, and a disproportionate amount of the coverage in Rhode Island. His celebrity will inhibit the process, in so much that the other candidates will struggle to be heard.
We’ve seen demonstrable evidence that party influence is weakening. I’m not sure, however, that Cianci’s move will prompt further erosion in Rhode Island. If either of the parties take the lead in negative advertising aimed at Cianci, it might actually strengthen party unity. The Democrat Party, especially, can ill afford to sit idly by and watch the former mayor gain momentum. If either of the parties move aggressively, Buddy’s candidacy could actually have a galvanizing effect.
Brett Smiley
Brett Smiley - Democratic Candidate for Mayor and former Political Columnist
Smiley says:
Buddy Cianci, the twice-convicted felon who remains the poster boy for the corruption and pay-to-play politics of the past, announced his candidacy for Mayor of Providence. And I've been the only candidate to stand up to him — to fight against the "know a guy" culture in Providence and articulate my vision for growing our economy, keeping our streets safe and improving our schools with integrity. Cianci's been the mayor before, and he had to step down on felony charges. Shockingly, he was elected mayor a second time ... and he again had to step down on felony charges. Now he wants a third shot, and many pundits think he actually has a chance. We cannot let that happen.
M. Charles Bakst
M. Charles Bakst - Longtime Political Reporter and Columnist for the Providence Journal
Bakst says:
I cannot believe Cianci will run. If he does, it will be a dramatic setback and utter embarrassment for Providence and Rhode Island. And heaven forbid that he should win. Fortunately, I don't think he would.
Joe Paolino
Joseph Paolino, former Mayor of Providence and Real Estate and Casino Developer
Paolino says:
I don't think anyone else cares about other offices or races right now.
People view Buddy as an iconic figure. If he runs, I think he wins. I think people like they way he ran this city -- it was safe, streets were taken care of, he expanded the tax base. He's not a foreign policy type of mayor.
He cares about the basics of city government, so people get their money's worth. People felt like when he was there, he was a cheerleader and he made people feel good about the city that they lived in. People know he cares about Providence and get things done.
I want Superman filled, 195 developed properly, my streets to be safe -- my car's been broken into twice, a car stolen -- I want to see someone who's going to get something done, and fight for this city up at the state house. They won't do that with anyone else running. Their lives haven't been defined by the city of Providence for 40 years.
John Marion
John Marion - Executive Director of Common Cause Rhode Island
Marion says:
It would be a tragedy for the City of Providence and the state of Rhode Island if Buddy Cianci were to run again. He has twice had his opportunity to lead the capital city and he led it as a criminal enterprise. It's time for Rhode Island to move past our reputation for corruption; a Buddy Cianci mayoralty would only reinforce the national narrative about our state. Public office is held as a public trust, and this will not help restore faith in our government.
As we continue to dig ourselves out of our fiscal woes, and try to lure investment and create jobs, this cannot help us in our competition with other states. As we try to encourage national foundations to further invest in our schools, as we try to develop the I-195 land, as we try to send the signal that we are a 21st Century city, a return to the politics of our past would only hurt those efforts.
Phil West
Phil West - Author and Government Reform Expert, former Executive Director of Common Cause Rhode Island
West says:
I assume Buddy Cianci will try to repeat his 1990 run as an independent. He won by 317 votes. During his second act as mayor I watched him in action. He was a consummate performer who charmed and entertained the crowds while he nursed his grudges and bullied anyone who dared to disagree. He terrified people.
I don't believe his character has changed. Providence would again get lots of razzle-dazzle on the surface, but underneath the same cynical bullying. If he won again, he would use the powers of his office and the force of his personality to beat down anyone who resisted. As in his earlier administrations, Providence would get a third act of All About Buddy.
After two Cianci administrations rife with corruption, he wants a third bite of the apple. Sensible people need to refuse.
Don Roach
Don Roach - GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™ and former Republican Candidate for City Council in Cranston
Roach says:
Buddy back in the mayor's office might be the best thing to hit Providence since...well, since the Providence Place Mall. Buddy is an old time politician but his heart is laser focused on the city. The city needs someone with that mindset who isn't thinking about Providence as a stepping stone to something else.
Dan Harrop
Dan Harrop - GOP Candidate for Mayor of the City of Providence
Harrop says:
"I look forward to Mr. Cianci entering the race for Mayor. While his time to run the city is clearly in the past, and with all its other problems Providence does not need its leader to be a convicted felon as it moves into the future, nevertheless I look forward to his entry. This will give us the opportunity to further look at his mis-management of the city, such as the 6% cost-of-living increases he allowed in pensions, which has led our pension system to the brink of bankruptcy."
Jorge Elorza
Jorge Elorza - Democratic Candidate for Mayor of Providence and Professor at Roger Williams University
Elorza says:
"We're not focusing on elements that are beyond our control, such as who decides to enter the race and when. We're much more focused on the things we can control, like what we're doing about the issues that are important to Providence's citizens: economic development, rebuilding the middle class, improving our schools and our neighborhoods. Our message is about bringing the city together as One Providence, and those fundamentals remain the same regardless of who is in the race."
Carol Costa
Carol Costa - GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™ and Executive Director of the Warren Housing Authority
Costa says:
The chances that Vincent Cianci again enters the ring to shepherd the city he truly loves remain very good. In Buddy terms, if I had an extra "C note" I would bet he runs. It was nearly a year ago I weighed in on political redemption as I opined about the Mayor in part:, "It is his knack for returning to limelight, prominence and politics that is nothing short of Poli Sci textbook material; the professor of the comeback by Vincent “Buddy” Cianci. Do the crime, do the time, spin it like a champ, write a book and move forward." But this time I see the return less about him and more about the city he genuinely loves. Providence for Buddy is life blood. Politics for Buddy is sport. Sharing his experiences on the radio is irresistible. Put them together and his candidacy will be formidable.
His constant advice via the radio waves always begins and ends with the promise that Providence will be divine yet again. When and if he returns to city hall in my view, he will be working for the redemption and reinvigoration of Providence first and the accolades that will follow secondary. If he succeeds in restoring economic development and imparting his traditionally huge visions are what seem to be the most motivating factors. I feel he posses a mission and a fire in his belly to re-energize the capital city. He appears primed to lead a new renaissance.
Brett Smiley
Brett Smiley - Democratic Candidate for Mayor of Providence and former Political Fundraiser (statement below was said before the announcement)
Smiley says:
"We have a unique opportunity to bring about a true economic renaissance in Providence that benefits all our residents, and we need to capitalize on this moment with forward-thinking leadership. Since Day One of my campaign, I've clearly articulated my vision for a City Hall that's run with transparency and integrity. We cannot afford to return to the problems of the past by electing a man who served time in federal prison for political corruption."
Lorne Adrain
Lorne Adrain - Independent Candidate for Mayor of Providence and Financial Advisor
Adrain says:
“As I wrote in my “City must move on from its Buddy fixation” op-ed from last Friday, this is a distraction from the real issues facing our city. Elections are about the future. They are an opportunity for us to discuss how we are going to take Providence from where we have been, to where we should be. Providence deserves a serious debate about the future of our city in the coming election.”
