Moore: Revenue Shortfall Benefits Speaker Mattiello

Russell J. Moore GoLocal MINDSETTER™

Moore: Revenue Shortfall Benefits Speaker Mattiello

House Speaker Nicholas Mattiello
At first blush, the May Revenue Estimating Conference’s finding of $99.6 million shortfall seems problematic for House Speaker Nicholas Mattiello.

After all, it’s largely up to the House of Representatives to write the budget since it originates there. And since Mattiello leads the body--some would say (me, for instance), with an iron fist--that the weight of the shortfall falls on him.

Delve deep beyond the surface of the issue, however, and it quickly becomes apparent that the declining revenues shouldn’t negatively impact Mattiello’s priorities, at least in the short term.

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Let’s not forget, the budget is pushing $9 billion dollars. That means the shortfall is just a smidgen more than 1 percent of the total spending package. Yes, $100 million is a massive sum of money. But when we’re thinking in terms of the Rhode Island state budget, the shortfall is not a monstrosity.

Therefore, the decline in revenue should really just give the Speaker a reason not to fund things he didn’t want to prioritize in the first place. The obvious example would be Governor Gina Raimondo’s free college tuition plan.

DOA

That plan was probably dead on arrival anyways, despite Raimondo’s aggressive marketing of the plan and barnstorming the state trying to build up grassroots support. The shortfall just gives Mattiello an extra talking point to explain his reluctance to implement the plan.

The shortfall also gives Mattiello a nice out if he would like to avoid taking on any other controversial topics, such as a subsidy for a new Pawtucket Red Sox Stadium or renovations for the Superman Building.

What government observers should still expect to find in the state budget is the beginning of a car tax phase out plan. Mattiello cannot afford to leave this out of the state budget since he made it a hallmark of his hard fought reelection victory last autumn.

The clear loser, from a public relations standpoint, from this shortfall situation is Governor Gina Raimondo. Raimondo didn’t do herself any favors by trying to blame the revenue shortfall on the Trump administration, which has only been in office for 100 days and the stock market has skyrocketed since that point. Raimondo’s attempt to blame Trump was a far cry from “the buck stops here”.

Public Relations Battle

Mattiello, for his part, released a statement to the press pointing out that a portion of the shortfall is due to the administration not realizing cost savings from last year’s budget initiatives and state government not running as efficiently as possible.

But let’s be fair. Raimondo, however, shouldn’t shoulder all of the blame for the situation. Let’s keep in mind, neighboring Massachusetts and Connecticut also have their own shortfalls.

That didn’t stop former Governor (and US Senator and Warwick Mayor and City Councilman) Lincoln Chafee from thumping his chest and pointing out that under his administration the revenue estimations were always surpluses as opposed to deficits. (Republicans will argue that those surpluses were a result of the tough decisions made during the Carcieri years.)

Chafee certainly sounds like a candidate for governor. His criticisms of Raimondo are getting more vociferous with each passing day. Fair or not, the shortfall gives Chafee another arrow in his quiver to criticize the Governor.

Chafee in Mix

To his credit: Chafee has been quite prophetic on more than a few issues in the past, whether it’s been his prospects in statewide elections, revenue forecasting, and even who would win this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Does anyone know who Chafee likes in next Saturday’s Preakness Stakes?

Russell J. Moore has worked on both sides of the desk in Rhode Island media, both for newspapers and on political campaigns. Send him email at [email protected]. Follow him on twitter @russmoore713.

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