On the Verge of a Republican Meltdown – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
On the Verge of a Republican Meltdown – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
“Rep. Liz Cheney” – Currently, she is the number three ranking Republican in the U.S. House, but perhaps not for long. In a Washington Post Op/Ed this week she said, "We can't rebuild the party or the conservative movement on a foundation of lies. We can't embrace the notion the election is stolen," said Cheney. "It's a poison in the bloodstream of our democracy. The way we win back suburban voters and keep all who voted for us in 2020 is with ideas and policy. We can't be a cult of personality." Cheney was clearly calling Trump’s claims a fraud. She added that the party couldn't "whitewash what happened on January 6th or perpetuate Trump's big lie."
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“The Speaker in Waiting: Rep. Kevin McCarthy” – Talk about being caught “between a rock and a hard place!” Rep. Cheney drew the ire of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, (R) California. "There's no concern about how she voted on impeachment — that decision has been made," McCarthy told Fox News. "I have heard from members concerned about her ability to carry out the job as conference chair, to carry out the message. We all need to be working as one if we're able to win the majority." In other words, McCarthy is worried Cheney will divide the party instead of making a united effort to win control of the House and/or Senate in 2022. McCarthy was captured on an open mic saying, “I think she’s got real problems.”
“Former Vice President Mike Pence” – This may not just be a fight between the new guard and the old guard in the Republican Party. Former Trump Vice-President Mike Pence is now scheduled to speak to the Hillsborough County Republican Committee’s Lincoln-Reagan Dinner on June 3. This could be a break-out moment for Pence. He either ties his fates and fortunes to being Trump’s right-hand man. Or he speaks out about the dangers upon him and his family in the January Capitol insurgency, as Pence was trying to count Electoral College votes. My prediction is this is where Pence bolts from Trump and condemns him. Pence served more than a decade in the House, and I’m sure resents how Trump trashed that institution.
“Open House Seats” – Right now Democrats hold a bare majority in the U.S. House with 218 seats. Republicans hold 212 seats, and there are five vacancies, with special elections pending. The simple math tells you that a net gain of six seats by Republicans will put them in the majority. Does that mean Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R) California would automatically be House Speaker? Well, given the current feud with Rep. Liz Cheney, all bets are off. Could Cheney challenge him and win? Stay tuned. Of the five open seats, three lean Democrat and two lean Republican. If that holds, we're looking at a 221-214 Democrat majority going into 2022. Again, a net gain of just four GOP seats, (very doable), would put the Republicans in charge.
“The Trump Dynamic” – Here’s the issue in 2022. Many members of Congress are torn. Trump is very popular to the rank and file, so some Congressional candidates do not want to alienate him for fear that he will endorse and fund his own field of candidates. Then there are the more pragmatic Republicans like Cheney who feel Trump has poisoned the well of the traditional mainstream Republicans, and will split the party causing both a loss of the Senate and House in 2022. It’s a legitimate concern. As an incumbent House or Senate member, you could lose your job simply by betting on the wrong horse.
“Trump v. Facebook, Twitter, et. al. in Social Media” – I am the biggest supporter of the First Amendment than anyone I know. I basically support unfettered and unrestricted speech, whether it’s speech in the town square, in the press, in academia, or a place of worship. And historically political speech is the most protected of all. That said, I do not support Twitter, Facebook and other platforms banning and blocking Donald Trump. Obviously, they are private entities and not the government, so they can block him. But I have a more productive solution. Let him spew, but then fact-check him and let opponents counter his claims. And in fairness, do this for ALL candidates. Let them speak, but let the facts speak for themselves, and give the opponents equal time to respond, and ultimately let the voters decide. That’s democracy! Don’t muzzle!
“Cindy McCain” – It is widely anticipated that President Biden will name Cindy Biden to a high-level post. The widow of Sen. John McCain (R) Arizona could be named ambassador to a number of nations in Western Europe. McCain was an early believer that Biden had defeated President Donald Trump fair and square saying, "It is time that we move on. It's time that we heal, it's time that we support our President-elect (Joe Biden)."
“Bush-Cheney Alliance” – In many respects, this is a battle for the soul (and future) of the Republican Party. The old guard deeply respects the two Bush Administrations and the Reagan White House, and by extension, the contributions the Cheneys and the McCains made to that. People like Rep. Cheney and Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush are carrying the legacy into another generation. That’s a powerful force that may collide head-on with the Trump wing of the party.
“My Prediction?” – I am guessing House Republicans will boot Cheney as conference chair, but by a much closer margin than Kevin McCarthy suspects. She will then challenge him in the race for Speaker after the 2020 election, in which the GOP will seize that majority. The vote will rest on who helped the Republicans gain the majority: Trump, or the old guard?
Whose side are you taking in the “Republican Family Feud?” Who is taking the high road, and who is riding the low road? Leave a comment below.
