Why the Trump Impeachment Trial is Really Not About Trump - “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Why the Trump Impeachment Trial is Really Not About Trump - “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Some things are about politics. Others are about the law. And still others are about the Constitution. But then there are those items that intersect two, or even all three of them. The impeachment trial of former President Trump falls into the “all the above” category. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“The Math of Politics” -- As I often say in this column, politics is as much about math as it is about ideology. You can have the greatest ideas in Congress, but if you don’t have the votes, it won’t happen.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

 

“By the Numbers” – Last week in this column I noted that Republicans are defending 20 U.S. Senate seats in 2022, while Democrats are defending 14. Three Republicans in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina previously announced they were not running again. On the other hand, an average of 97 percent of incumbents get reelected. So while this might look like a banner year for Democrats, Republicans have a fighting chance at taking back the majority.

 

“So How Does This Play Out?” – Just a rough guess, but I bet all 34 of the 2022 incumbents from both parties vote to at least ban Donald Trump from ever running for federal office again. And I bet all candidates, both Republican and Democrats, from those three open seats pledge that they would vote to ban Trump from office, too (even though they don’t get a vote). They will do so to be on the perceived “right” side of this issue. I’m not sure all Republicans would vote yes. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) rows his own boat, and there’s talk Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) may even face a primary challenge from none other than Ivanka Trump, daughter of the former Commander-in-Chief. You can’t make this stuff up, even in Hollywood. But just for the sake of discussion, count 34 certain votes to punish Trump.

 

“Does this Add Up?” – Well, to expel a sitting president from office, or to issue the other punishments for an ex-president, such as halting his pension or secret service protection, still requires 67 (or two-thirds) of the senators’ present. Let’s assume my prediction that all the incumbents up for reelection in 2022 all vote yes. You still need to find 33 more votes. Where are they?

 

“Senate Split” – The Senate is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, but with Vice President Kamala Harris, Democrats control the chamber. But she only votes in case of a tie, so she has no voice if 67 voters are needed. And at the risk of getting ahead of my skis, you really must look at the Senate class of 2024. 21 Democrats are up for reelection, 10 Republicans and two independents (who caucus with Democrats). Again, let’s assume all 21 Democrats vote to punish the ex-president. You add that to the total of the 2022 class, and you get to 54 votes. Now there are two independents up in 2024, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with the Democrats, so you are now at 56 votes. Of the Republicans up for reelection in 2024, only Sen. Mitt Romney (R) Utah is the sure bet. That gets you to 57 votes, 10 away from punishing Trump.

 

“The Odd Balls” – Well, we just had an election in 2020. These people are the “free-radicals”

of the upper chamber. How they vote next week is unlikely to be an issue if they run again six years from now. Going into 2020, Republicans had a 53-47 advantage, but lost three seats (again giving Democrats control) with the Harris VP win. I look at the map tonight and see no vulnerable Republicans that will lose in six years if they don’t stick with Trump (memories are short in politics). I estimate no more than three will vote to punish Trump. Bottom line, I predict – at most - 59 Senators will vote to punish Trump, falling short by eight. Whether or not he is punished is moot; as with Richard Nixon, he at the very least, leaves office in disgrace.

 

“So, He Wins, So Will He Run Again?” – As a Republican, I think he’s toast. How the Republicans in the classes of 2022, 2024, and 2026 vote is really an act of their own self-preservation. But is Trump a third-party wild card in 2024? Yes! He has the money and significant backing to make a serious run at the White House given his support. He can also field a slate of Trump loyalists to run for the House and Senate. But can he upset the apple cart all over again? Probably not. As a third-party candidate, he is more likely to help the Biden-Harris team, by dividing GOP support much like Ross Perot did in 1992. Politics has weird karma!

Should Trump be banished from further federal office? Yes, or no? Just click the comment button to tell us why?

 

Mark Curtis, Ed.D, is the Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, five of its neighboring states and all of the Washington, DC media market, as this week we add WDCW-TV50 to our line-up in the Nation’s Capital. He is also a MINDSETTER columnist for www.GoLocalProv.com and all of its affiliates.