Politicking on the Luck o’ the Green – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - March 17, 2024

Politicking on the Luck o’ the Green – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - March 17, 2024

It’s Saint Patrick’s Day, and with the presidential race in a dead heat, one of these guys might need the “Luck ‘o the Irish” to win in 2024. President Joe Biden’s mom was Catherine Finnegan, so he’s got some Irish in his veins. Donald Trump’s mom was Mary Anne MacLeod, an immigrant of Scotland, but who may have had a “wee bit” of Irish in her lineage. Shamrocks all around, we’ll see who promises a leprechaun in the cabinet for the win! Let’s “brunch” on all that “blarney” this week!

 

“Primary Colors Prevail” – As of the March 12 primaries in four states and a territory, it’s now certain that both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have enough delegates in their respective parties to be the nominee. To call it a landslide would be an understatement. Trump has 1,253 delegates to 94 for Nikki Haley, 9 for Ron DeSantis, and 3 for Vivek Ramaswammy. I mention the raw numbers simply because I thought there would be more opponents and a closer fight for this nomination. Trump was dominant, and the “never-Trumpers” in the party never emerged. A lot of moderate-to-liberal Republicans hate Trump, but the last thing they want to do is sit on their hands and allow a second Biden term. It’s the same reason no significant Democrat opposed Biden, as many polls have the November contest razor thin.

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“Biden Bottoming Out?” – Despite a very aggressive and provocative State of the Union address, President Biden is getting mixed results. Anecdotally a lot of people I spoke with thought he exceeded expectations of both his physical and mental health. He was “in your face” many times with the opposition, and many people like that regardless of your political stripe. While a CNN poll showed a positive reaction to Biden’s State of the Union, a post-speech Newsweek poll shows a 56-percent Biden disapproval rating, the highest negative rating of his term. Six months before the final poll, that’s not the trend you want.

 

“Swing State Swing” – Every presidential election is decided by the moving target of swing states. Some years it’s 10 or 11, but this year most analysts agree we are looking at seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In 2020, Biden won six, and Trump only won North Carolina. In 2016, Trump also carried Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, in addition to Georgia and Arizona. In each cycle, the candidate who took six of seven states won the White House. So, there may be some predictability here.

 

“Trump’s Trending” – So, how are these seven swing states trending right now? Trump is leading in six of seven states. According to the Real Clear Politics Composite Poll, Biden only leads in his native Pennsylvania by 49 to 45 percent. Trump leads in Arizona, 48 to 42 percent; Georgia 49 to 42 percent; Michigan 46 to 43 percent; Nevada 49 to 41 percent; North Carolina, 49 to 43 percent; and, Wisconsin, 46 to 45 percent. So, things are trending for Trump, but realize in none of these seven races, is the leader at 50 percent or more. These are “battlegrounds” in every sense of the word. Nationally, Trump leads Biden 48 to 46 percent, with the two leading issues being immigration and the economy. That’s why these seven states are so crucial.

 

“RFK Jr., QB for VP?” – In the often bleak and dreary world of politics came some fun this week. Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says he will consider New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers for his vice-presidential running mate. Rodgers is a smart guy with a UC Berkeley and Jeopardy pedigree, (and he starred for my Green Bay Packers). While he never held or ran for public office, he has star power and huge name recognition. Rodgers and Kennedy are very well-known for their anti-vaccination positions. The Jets QB says he has “continuously talked” with RFK Jr. over the past month, especially about their vaccination stances based on “medical freedom.” Now, Rodgers is not the only athlete on the short-list. Kennedy is also talking to former Gov. Jesse Ventura (I) Minnesota, who is a member of the WWE Professional Wrestling Hall of Fame.

 

“GOP Internal Power Play Drama” – Donald Trump doesn’t just want to be elected president again, he wants to control most aspects of the Republican Party. You saw that when he convinced House and Senate members to torpedo recent legislation tying Ukraine aid to border security aid, as he tries to win a majority in both chambers in November. Now, he has gotten his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump (Eric’s wife), to be co-chair of the Republican National Committee, and she cleaned house. The job was previously held by Ronna Romney McDaniel, niece of former presidential nominee and Sen. Mitt Romney (R) Utah. The Trump and Romney families despise each other. The internal struggle for the future of the Republican party is ugly and will play out publicly.

 

“The Legal Football Field” – There were rulings right and left this week, and I’m not sure we can deduce much yet. The judge in the Georgia election interference case dismissed six charges against Trump. The headlines may be a moral victory for Trump, but dozens of other charges remain. The Georgia judge also told District Attorney Fani Willis that either she or her Trump-prosecutor boyfriend must quit. The judge said Willis created a "significant appearance of impropriety that infects the current structure of the prosecution team" by having a romantic relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade. Wade is now gone. Trump also won a delay in another criminal trial as to whether he paid hush money to stripper Stormy Daniels to quiet acknowledgment of an affair. New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg said, "Although the people are prepared to proceed to trial on March 25, we do not oppose an adjournment in an abundance of caution and to ensure that defendant has sufficient time to review the new materials." He asked the trial to be delayed 30 days. Trump and Bragg are ensnared in multiple other legal cases.

 

“On the Other Hand” – As I have said for months, this may simply be a “tit-for-tat” over whose legal problems are worse, the Trump family or the Biden family. Late last week, a judge ordered that presidential son Hunter Biden’s federal case alleging an illegal gun charge could be set for trial on June 3rd. As I always say, the race should be about the candidates and not their relatives, but this kind of stuff always garners a lot of attention. Is it serious to voters, or just a carnival sideshow? We trust the voters to answer that, so stay tuned!