“This Is Anyone’s Race,” Say Experts on Battle for 1st Congressional Seat
GoLocalProv News Team and Kate Nagle
“This Is Anyone’s Race,” Say Experts on Battle for 1st Congressional Seat
Congressman David Cicilline announced that he is stepping down from his seat in Congress to take over the position as the head of the Rhode Island Foundation and collect a salary of $650,000 for the group dedicated to supporting those in need.
The announcement over the past few days that Speaker of the House Joe Shekarchi and former CVS executive Helena Foulkes are not running has opened this race up for any number of candidates to win this race.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST“Foulkes’ decision not to run for the seat means that there’s no obvious frontrunner," said the Chair of the Political Science Department at the University of Virginia, Jennifer Lawless.
"Foulkes has statewide name recognition and deep pockets, two of the most important predictors of electoral success, especially in a relatively short campaign," said Lawless. "That’s not to say she would have won – many different dynamics would have been in play and low turnout could help an underdog – but her presence as a candidate would likely have deterred others from throwing their hats into the ring. Now, there’s no such deterrent,”
SEE WHO IS IN, NOT ANNOUNCED, AND OUT BELOW
To date, only two candidates have announced they are running — Lt. Governor Sabina Matos and State Senator Sandra Cano.
Cheap Race, Low Turnout
“Given that this is now anyone’s race, it’s hard to predict how expensive it’ll be. On the one hand, it’s possible to imagine a crop of candidates who are local politicians without substantial donor bases or personal funds. These women and men could treat the race similarly to how they’ve treated those they’ve already won – relatively inexpensive operations that are contingent on turning out their voters. In a crowded field, 5,000 votes might be all it takes to win, and that doesn’t require hundreds of thousands of dollars,” said Lawless.
Endress said, “Foulkes recognizes what Gina Raimondo also views as a fundamental disadvantage in this particular congressional race: The executive functions performed by a governor don't necessarily compare to the skill set needed for a new member of Congress—and especially when one is entering as a member of the minority party. By virtue of his well-honed debate and media skills, David Cicilline was a standout. He never backed away from a fight and this characteristic served him well.”
“Those who are running for this seat will need to have that same drive and be willing to work their way through the labyrinth of congressional committees in order to showcase their skills. It's a much longer slog to get the same sort of recognition. In many ways the gubernatorial race can be more grueling, but it does offer you the spotlight from the moment of your inauguration and can be a more attractive to candidates who have extensive corporate leadership experience,” added Endress
Potential First Congressional District Candidates - June 13, 2023
RUNNING
Don Carlson, Jamestown (D)
According to his bio, Carlson's career has included executive, educator, attorney, and entrepreneur roles.
Now, he counts Congressional candidate on his resume.
RUNNING
RI House Finance Chair Marvin Abney, Newport (D)
GoLocalProv broke the news that the powerful state legislator would officially be announcing his candidacy.
As GoLocal reported, he is widely respected for his evenhandedness in chairing the Finance Committee. He has been known to allow hundreds of witnesses to testify on a single piece of legislation.
His resume looks very different from many of the candidates.
RUNNING
Aaron Regunberg, Providence (D)
The progressive former State Representative -- and candidate for Rhode Island Lt. Governor -- officially announced his candidacy on April 10.
The "almost Governor" lost to Dan McKee by just 2466 votes in 2018. He went on to serve as a policy advisor to Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza.
Had he won that Lt. Governor's race, he would have stopped into the Governorship when former Governor Gina Raimondo left for DC.
RUNNING
Lt. Governor Sabina Matos, Providence (D)
Rumors were swirling quickly out of the State House that Matos, who served as the President of the City Council, was looking at a potential run.
She is officially in.
RUNNING
Senator Sandra Cano, Pawtucket (D)
Cano has announced she is running for Rhode Island’s First Congressional seat.
Sandra Cano lives in Pawtucket with her fiancé, James, their daughter, Arianna Hallel, and their son, Alessandro James.
RUNNING
Nick Autiello, Providence (D)
A former Commerce RI staffer, Autiello also ran for Rhode Island State Senate in 2018.
He had previously worked as a Republican operative.
RUNNING
John Goncalves, Providence (D)
The Providence City Councilman has made a formal announcement that he is running.
He currently represents Ward 1 in Providence -- Fox Point and the East Side.
RUNNING
Allen Waters, Providence, (D)
The former Republican -- who has run for multiple seats under the GOP mantle -- has now rebranded himself a "Blue Dog Democrat."
RUNNING
Ana Quezada, Providence (D)
The Rhode Island State Senator, who was first elected to the body in November 2016, was the Senate sponsor of legislation -- since signed into law -- which will raise Rhode Island's minimum wage to $15 an hour by Jan. 1, 2025.
She filed her intent to run for the Congressional seat with the FEC on April 6.
"I will not be the person with the most money in this campaign. However, I know that I have what it takes hope to represent Rhode Island in Congress," said Quezada. "I ask all my friends and supporters who advocated for me to run to stand with me now as we build the largest grassroots campaign of all the current candidates."
RUNNING
Representative Stephen Casey, Woonsocket (D)
Casey (D) has represented Woonsocket in District 50 since his first election in November 2012. He is the chairman of the House Municipal Government and Housing Committee.
He filed his papers with the FEC on April 10.
RUNNING
Gabe Amo (D)
The former Gina Ramondo staffer -- who also counts working in the Obama White House among his political experience -- is leaving his latest post in the Biden White House as special assistant to the President to make a run.
RUNNING
Walter Berbrick, Newport (D)
The former Navy intelligence officer and former U.S. Naval War College professor has officially launched his campaign.
RUNNING
Stephanie Beaute, Providence (D)
Beauté, a former candidate for Rhode Island Secretary of State, calls herself "a dynamic mother, passionate advocate, and relentless problem-solver, charging into Congress to ignite real change in Washington, D.C."
RUNNING
Bella Machado Noka, South County
A long-time civic activist and Tribal Elder of the Narragansett Aboriginal Nation, Noka announced her intent to run at the end of May.
NOT ANNOUNCED
Nirva LaFortune, Providence (D)
Former Providence City Councilor and candidate for Mayor in 2022 says she is considering a run.
"There will likely be many talented candidates who eventually decide to run for Congress. Should I decide to join this race, I am confident that I will bring the passion and commitment necessary to represent the needs of the First District's constituents at one of the toughest times in our nation's history," said LaFortune.
NOT RUNNING
Mayor Don Grebien, Pawtucket (D)
In the spring, Pawtucket Mayor Don Grebien told GoLocal, "I’m still doing my due diligence, meeting with community leaders and elected officials, including other mayors, labor, and business leaders."
In June, Grebien declared he would be making a candidate endorsement, effectively quashing any question of a run.
NOT RUNNING
Representative Nathan Biah, Providence (D)
Biah -- a Liberian refugee, Providence high school principal, and State Representative, had announced a run in the spring; he then announced he was dropping out to run for the special election for the late Senator Maryellen Goodwin's seat on Rhode Island Senate District 1.
NOT RUNNING
Arlene Violet, Barrington (RI)
The former Rhode Island Attorney General ended speculation in mid-April that she would throw her hat in the ring.
She released a statement saying she would not be running.
NOT RUNNING
Pamela Azar, Lincoln (D)
The third-term Lincoln Town Councilor had announced she would be running -- before announcing her support for another candidate.
NOT RUNNING
Central Falls Mayor Maria Rivera, Central Falls (D)
After Rivera told GoLocal in February she was “considering” running -- she is out.
“There’s a lot to consider — it’s happening very quick,” said Rivera at the time. “ I’ve got to talk with my team. I love my city.”
Ultimately, Rivera opted not to run.
NOT RUNNING
Attorney General Peter Neronha, Jamestown (D)
Neronha is in his second term and is term-limited. He functionally has not had a competitive race in his previous two campaigns.
Neronha tells GoLocal, "Not making any decisions today. Love my job as AG."
In November, he won with 61% of the vote.
One of his advantages is he has high name recognition.
He has just $43,000 in his campaign account.
NOT RUNNING
Newport Mayor Xay Khamsyvoravong (D)
The mayor might be new, but he is experienced and aggressive.
He won by a huge margin in November.
Running for the City Council at large -- he won more than 4,900 more votes than the second-place candidate, former Mayor Jeanne-Marie Napolitano. As the top council vote-getter, he won the mayor's position.
Previously he lived in Providence and was a top staffer for Frank Caprio in his 2010 run for Governor.
He told GoLocal he is not running -- he is "focused on Newport."
NOT RUNNING
Jorge Elorza, Providence (D)
The former Providence Mayor had a checkered eight years in Providence.
But with a base in Providence and a campaign account with $966,301.63 -- he would be viable in a crowded primary.
NOT RUNNING
Speaker of the House Joe Shekarchi, Warwick (D)
Shekarchi announced on March 17 he would not run.
NOT RUNNING
Helena Foulkes, Narragansett (D)
The former President of CVS lost to Governor Dan McKee in the Democratic primary by less than 4,000 votes.
On March 20, Foulkes announced the following:
"Over the past few weeks, I have been humbled by the outpouring of support and encouragement from many of you urging me to run for Rhode Island’s soon-to-be vacant congressional seat in the first district. Your unwavering support fills me with immense gratitude, and I’m confident that with our collective effort, we could have run a successful campaign. But I wanted you to hear it from me first: I have decided not to run for Congress.
PHOTO: Cicilline Campaign
