Guest MINDSETTER™ Sasse: Are Governors Economic Miracle Workers?

Gary Sasse, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

Guest MINDSETTER™ Sasse: Are Governors Economic Miracle Workers?

Gary Sasse
Rhode Island’s economic performance has garnered national attention. The State has attracted jobs from a few companies like GE Digital and Johnson & Johnson. The Governor’s communication chief boasts about the “economic comeback Governor Raimondo is leading.”

A state’s economic performance can have a profound impact on the political fortunes of governors. Former Governor Michael Dukakis (D-MA) based his quest for the presidency on the “Massachusetts Miracle”, which in his view, transformed the Bay State into a hi-tech innovation based economy.

How much credit can be assigned to a governor when the economy in their state grows? Harvard economist Edward Glaesar believes that, “most of the things that affect a state’s economy are way beyond a governor’s control.” A March 2017 article in Governing found that, “Published research doesn’t offer any consensus on the degree to which governors generate growth across a state’s economy, but it’s certainly less than they give themselves credit for, at least in the short term.” It is the case that governors get too much political credit when their state’s economy is growing and too much blame when it is not.

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One proxy to assess a governor’s performance is to compare employment trends with other states and the nation. As measured by job growth and labor force dynamism, data suggest Rhode Island is not an outlier, but also not the leader of the pack.

Between January 2015,  when Governor Raimondo took office, and  March 2017, Ocean State employment increased by 2.36 percent compared to 5.92 percent in Massachusetts, 3.74 nationally and 1.92 percent in the other New England states. 

During this same period Rhode Island’s unemployment rate declined at a faster pace (32.8 percent) than it did for the balance of New England (26.8 percent). However, Rhode Island was the only state in the region not to experience growth in its labor force.  A stagnant labor force is a significant challenge because Rhode Island’s employment-to population of prime age workers is the lowest in New England.

In a competitive interstate environment it would be malpractice if governors did not fight to improve their state’s business climate. There is no such thing as laissez-faire when states compete for jobs, and a governor’s “bully pulpit” can be the most powerful economic development tool a state possesses.  However, results of a governor’s efforts to grow the economy probably will not be known until long after he or she leaves office. The North Carolina Research Triangle Park was opened in 1959, and it took two decades to create 10,000 jobs. 

Rhode Island’s economic development strategy appears to be predicated on growth incentives, innovation incentives, tax deals and education and training. Harvard Business School’s Michael Porter teaches us that being competitive requires that states help businesses to make productive use of their human, capital and natural resources. Some of Rhode Island’s economic development programs are consistent with this objective.

The Real Jobs Rhode Island program attempts to link employee education and training with the real time manpower needs of employers. Investments in computer literacy and the P-TECH program have the potential of paying dividends for both workers and employers if funded at scale.

 

Innovation in products, process and cluster development is essential for sustainable job and business growth. The Rhode Island Commerce Corporation offers innovation vouchers, cluster development grants as well as innovation network matching grants.

However, only $2.2 million has been appropriated for these innovation incentives. In addition, voters have approved a $20 million bond issue for an innovation campus affiliated with URI. 

When compared to real estate deals, the level of investment in innovation has been modest. The State has invested $58 million in Rebuild Redeemable Tax Credits, almost $20 million in I-195 office buildings and over $7 million in tax increment finance and tax stabilization agreements. 

In ten years will Rhode Island see a return on the investments being made to retool its economy? Will there be a well-educated labor force enjoying a high standard of living? Nobody can answer these questions with certainty. However, the chances of success are enhanced if innovation in product and process and structural reforms to improve the business climate are not over-shadowed by high cost real estate deals and corporate welfare. 

Gary Sasse is Founding Director of the Hassenfeld Institute for Public Leadership at Bryant University. He is the former Executive Director Rhode Island Public Expenditure and Director of the Departments of Administration and Revenue.


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