RI’s Job Market Shows Increasing Weakness, Says URI Economist

RI’s Job Market Shows Increasing Weakness, Says URI Economist

University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro says data shows that Rhode Island’s job market is weakening.

Lardaro released his monthly CCI Index report for the month of May, but also discussed the recently released job numbers for June.

In June, Rhode Island lost 2,400 jobs and, in contrast, Massachusetts added 1,000 jobs.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

“Looking at June employment (my report was May), things are indeed deteriorating. The employment measure divergence moved in the way I had expected (payroll employment fell) and there are the labor market measures that just haven’t gone in the right direction for a while,” said Lardaro.

Lardaro’s report for May on Rhode Island’s economy flagged significant economic issues.

“It's May value (the CCI Score), 42, was a return to contraction territory once again, raising the question of whether Rhode Island has entered the early stages of a recession. I still don't have a definitive answer, but I continue to see little to dissuade me from that view. Remember, levels of key variables do not define recessions, but instead, their upcoming rates of change (sustainability).

 

CCI Report for May

“April’s economic reprieve ended abruptly in May, as the Current Conditions Index slipped back into contraction territory. While we have moved beyond February’s horrible data, May’s data is, as the saying goes, nothing to write home about. First and foremost, the CCI has remained below year-earlier values for every month of this year, which illustrates that our economic momentum continues to fade relative to 2024. Second, while there are clearly improving indicators this month, as there have been for much of this year, rates of improvement are not terribly strong. Not surprisingly, as we continue to slow. Finally, once again this month, a majority of the five leading economic indicators contained in the CCI failed to improve,” states Lardaro’s CCI report.

 

 

"This leaves open the question of whether Rhode Island’s economy is in a recession. While I can’t entirely rule that out, it is still a bit too early to make a definitive recession call. Looking at CCI values, I am reminded of wrestling, where a shoulder is pinned to the mat for a few seconds, but not enough to call the match. That’s my best guess as to where Rhode Island’s economy stands as of May. While I can’t rule out that Rhode Island has entered the early stages of a recession, I can’t definitely rule that possibility in either. Stay tuned,” reported Lardaro.