U.S. National Security Policy in a Second Trump Administration - Dr. Mackubin Owens

U.S. National Security Policy in a Second Trump Administration - Dr. Mackubin Owens

During his first term as president, Donald Trump scored some notable successes in foreign and national security policy, but he suffered some failures as well. Here is a suggestion for his second term.

His foreign policy successes included: 1) the drafting of an excellent National Security Strategy (NSS); 2) a coherent policy for South Asia to replace the years of drift in Afghanistan that had characterized the policy of the Obama presidency; and 3) a commitment to “maximum pressure” against North Korea and Iran regarding their nuclear weapons programs and the latter’s support of terrorism. It is also notable that, despite the charge that he was somehow in Putin’s pocket, he took a harder line against Russia than Obama had during his presidency or that Hillary Clinton would have had she won the presidency in 2016.

As one who has both studied and helped to draft previous NSSs, I would judge Trump’s as one of the best, avoiding as it did the shortcomings of  other examples, including most recently, the Biden NSS: that they are long on aspirations and short on a discussion of the means to fulfill these aspirations; and that they constitute an exercise in “satisficing” i.e. accepting the first satisfactory option for all the different bureaucratic and policy interests of the various departments of government and the political factions that make up an administration, rather than the optimal one.  Trump’s NSS actually laid out the means necessary to achieve the ends that the strategy posited.

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Unfortunately, although Trump’s character and personality allowed him to make tough decisions, those same traits often prevented him from seeing his policies through. That was true of the NSS, the South Asia strategy, as well as his initially tough approaches to North Korea, Iran, and China. This was based on Trump’s belief—arising from his experience as a businessman in the jungles of New York City real estate and finance—that he could “make a deal” with anyone, including authoritarian leaders hostile to the interests of the United States. His advisers were never able to convince Trump that leaders such as Putin and China’s Xi were uninterested in positive-sum deals.

Trump also had a tendency to treat allies as a liability rather than an asset. Allies should never be seen as ends in themselves but as means to our own security. The United States benefits from an array of allies, including NATO, Japan, and Israel.  Too many of Trump’s supporters are counseling him to abandon friends and allies and to repudiate the traditional Republican emphasis on a strong national defense. That would be a mistake.

In order to have a successful foreign policy outing during his second term, Trump must build on the accomplishments of his first term. Trump is not a deep thinker but he has demonstrated that his fundamental instincts are sound. The key to success is consistency, which begins with a coherent policy, one based on what I have called “prudent American realism.”

Interestingly, Trump’s first NSS is a good example of such an approach. That strategy posited four “pillars:” 1) protect the American people, the homeland, and the American way of life; 2) promote American prosperity; 3) preserve peace through strength; and 4) advance American influence.

Prudent American realism calls for a healthy nationalism, better described as patriotism. Throughout his first term, Trump’s central belief was that the purpose of American power is to advance the interests of American citizens.

Prudent American realism favors a “state-centric” view of international politics, one that approaches international institutions and “global governance” with great skepticism. It is in the interest of the United States to advance U.S. political, military, and economic strength, not to impose America's will on others but to “secure the blessings of liberty for ourselves and our posterity.” 

By extension, it rejects the contention that the United States should cede sovereignty to international institutions in order to be embraced by the mythical “international community.” Although it is in the interest of the United States to cooperate with others within this international system, such cooperation depends on reciprocity. This has been especially important in the areas of trade and alliances. In principle, free trade is good for countries in the international system. Trump contended that for too long, the United States had pursued trade agreements that were not in US interests. The principle of reciprocity was necessary to redress this imbalance.

Prudent American realism recognizes the central role of armed diplomacy. American policymakers have long treated force and diplomacy as an either-or proposition. But understood properly, force and diplomacy are two sides of the same coin. The threat of force increases the leverage of diplomats. The Trump administration’s approach to Iran and North Korea was a case in point.

Prudent American realism emphasizes economic growth and leveraging the new geopolitics of energy. The first Trump administration moved expeditiously to lift regulations that hampered U.S. domestic productivity across the board, but especially in the area of energy production. While domestic oil and gas production has increased as a result of the revolution associated with hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) and directional drilling, it did so despite the priorities of the Obama and Biden administrations, both of which sought to decrease reliance on hydrocarbons. During his first term, Trump made it clear he wished to exploit America’s energy potential to take advantage of the new geopolitics of energy. He should do so again,

Prudent American realism stresses the defense of liberal principles. Of course, the United States is safer and more prosperous in a world populated by other democratic republics, but prudence dictates that the United States attempt to spread its principles only when it can do so in a cost-effective manner.

An effective foreign policy for Trump’s second term must aim to enhance American power, influence, and credibility as the means for achieving the freedom, security, and prosperity of American citizens. Here’s wishing him success.