Avoid Laying an Egg This Season - “The Sunday Political Brunch” - March 31, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Avoid Laying an Egg This Season - “The Sunday Political Brunch” - March 31, 2024
“Mickey Mouse Politics” – The other big headline from Florida is that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida and the Disney Corporation have come to an out-of-court agreement over DeSantis’s support of what came to be known as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill barring classroom discussion of gender identity, including LGBTQ issues. An actual governmental body has overseen Disney operations from the start, but DeSantis appointees were able to seize control. Details of the “peace offering” are still coming out, but to many, it’s not a good look to be beating up on Mickey Mouse, as DeSantis could be the Republican presidential frontrunner in 2028.
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“Trump Lien Crisis” – Former President Donald Trump was supposed to show up last Monday with a plan to guarantee more than $450 million in payments for a civil lawsuit loss brought by the state of New York on charges of overvaluing his real estate holdings to get more favorable loan deals, i.e., lower interest and terms. The judge agreed to lower the bond amount to $175 million dollars and granted an extension on the date. But at some point, there needs to be a firm number and a firm date. I suspect that both will come well before November. But then there is luck. Trump’s “Truth Social” online media platform had its initial public offering this week and by day two was valued at $8 billion dollars. Will it last? Who knows? But, shed no tears for Trump’s finances.
“Trump ‘Stormy’ Hush Money” – The unrelated, but equally interesting trial about alleged hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels over her affair with Trump, has been delayed until April 15th. That will pit former Trump “fixer” and attorney Michael Cohen against Trump, potentially talking about his one-time boss’s legal influence peddling (aka alleged bribes), to keep his nemesis quiet during the 2016 presidential campaign and beyond. Again, the question I ask week after week is, “Will any of this reach any kind of critical mass (including more charges), to take Trump down?” I still have my doubts. With all the indictments and pending charges out there, Trump is still leading in most polls as we are just over seven months until November. He could be Teflon!
“Kennedy VP Pick” – Independent presidential candidate Bobby Kennedy Jr. has named his running mate. To no one’s surprise, he picked 38-year-old high-tech attorney and investor Nicole Shanahan of Oakland, California. This came after two weeks of wild speculation that he would pick future NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers (who shares his anti-vaccination views), or former professional wrestler turned Gov. Jesse “The Body” Ventura (I) Minnesota. The two athletes would have made a short-term splash of headlines, but that luster would have faded fast. The little-known Shanahan was a safer choice.
“Why This Pick is Important” – She is not a household name, nor does she come with a political resume. What she does bring to the table is cash. The campaign needs money to simply get on the ballot in every state or it can’t be competitive. Shanahan is a star in her own right, but she was also married to Google co-founder Sergey Brin, one of the ten richest men in the world. Her divorce settlement was substantial. Kennedy may be filthy rich, but she is uber filthy rich. Why does that matter? If Kennedy is to be competitive in this race, he must be on the ballot in all 50 states. It is a very, very expensive proposition. So far, he is only on the ballot in Utah, so you get the urgency needed for cash. She is not the usual running mate who is brought in for ideological and geographic balance. This is mostly about money!
“Drilling Down in the Polls” – Various polls show Bobby Kennedy Jr., with anywhere from 12 to 24 points in either a nationwide poll or in key swing states. Anyone can take a poll and say they are for Kennedy, but if he’s not on the ballot in that state, it means nothing. In many states, it could be crucial if his name is on the ballot. I believe it’s fair to presume that Kennedy will pull more votes from Biden than he will from Trump. Kennedy is still quite liberal, and the environmentalists love him, but he’s a big anti-vaccination guy, who may pull some key votes from the far-right GOP.
“Three States That Matter” – By my analysis, Kennedy is now polling high enough in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin to pull enough votes from Biden, to throw the race to Trump. The latest Real Clear Composite Poll for Arizona has it 44 percent for Trump, 38 percent for Biden, and 10 percent for Kennedy. Without Kennedy, it is 49 percent Trump, 44 percent Biden, with 7 percent undecided. In Michigan, it is 42 percent Trump, 39 percent Biden, to 8 percent for Kennedy. Without Kennedy, it is 47 to 44 percent in Trump’s favor. In Wisconsin, it is 42 percent Trump, 39 percent Biden, to 10 percent for Kennedy. In a straight-up two-way race, it is Trump 48.3 percent, to 47.5 percent for Biden, so a dead heat. Kennedy could be the spoiler who throws the race to Trump. Does he want that on his resume?
“Abortion Still Matters” – It is nuance, but the very same Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade two years ago, now looks poised to okay the continued use of Mifepristone, the pill that can induce abortions and is responsible for an estimated two-thirds of pregnancy terminations in the past year. The high court heard arguments Tuesday, but seemed skeptical that justices should be overturning the medical expertise of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. This could be a crucial vote in a key election year issue, and signs point to a possible 9-0 ruling in favor of the drug. Wow! As presidents nominate Supreme Court justices, this issue matters in an election year.
“Third Party Bid?” – Regardless of what Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., does and regardless of Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia opting out, there still seems to be a desire for a third-party option. Last Monday, I received an email from Team Unity Ticket at [email protected] if you wish to engage. The email said, in part, “65 percent of voters want a commonsense alternative to Trump and Biden for President. Are you one of them? Click here to sign our petition to reject Trump/Biden and support a commonsense Unity Ticket.” Yet the email and the link provide no indication as to who might be on that unity ticket. In my mind, it’s a blind opportunity and a waste of time.