Cities are Rebounding - Rob Horowitz

Cities are Rebounding - Rob Horowitz

To borrow liberally from Mark Twain, the predictions of a death spiral for American cities turned out to be greatly exaggerated.  In fact, they were dead wrong.

 

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which accelerated a shift to working from home, as well as caused some more affluent residents to leave cities at least temporarily, there were widespread predictions that this would trigger a so-called “urban doom loop.” Increasingly vacant office buildings and storefronts and the related decline in foot traffic would result in irreversible increases in crime and other ills.  This, in turn, would lead to even more residents abandoning our cities and shrinking tax bases, making it more difficult for cities to address a growing set of problems, as well as making it more difficult for cities to attract new residents.

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An analysis of recently released census data by William Frey, a noted demographer at the Brookings Institution, however, demonstrates that most large US cities are “now doing much better demographically than they were during the peak pandemic year of 2020-2021.” More specifically, “two-thirds (64) of the 91 large cities did demographically better—registering larger population gains, smaller declines, or flips from declines to gains in 2022–2023 compared to the prime pandemic year of 2020–2021.” Overall, cities in particular and metropolitan areas in general have returned to net positive population growth.

 

A contributing factor to this resurgence is that violent and property crimes are markedly declining, returning to pre-pandemic levels or below. The FBI’s first quarter of 2024 Uniform Crime Report (UCR) details the major declines over the same period of time in 2023: “Murder decreased by 26.4 percent, rape decreased by 25.7 percent, robbery decreased by 17.8 percent, and aggravated assault decreased by 12.5 percent. Reported property crime also decreased by 15.1 percent.”  This continues a trend of significant drops in crime that began in 2022 and that is especially pronounced in our nation’s cities.

 

Foot traffic and visits into cities are also returning to pre-pandemic levels.  Evening and weekend foot traffic is back at and even exceeding pre-pandemic levels as people still seek the amenities and culture that cities offer.  Workday street activity is getting closer to pre-pandemic levels. The apparently permanent shift to more hybrid work arrangements, though, may preclude its full return.

 

So far, the plummeting crime rates, and renewed vibrancy of urban life does not appear to have served as much of a brake on Donald Trump and his allies’ dishonest and often racially tinged efforts to portray American cities as unlivable hellscapes.  The most recent example was Mr. Trump calling Milwaukee, the host of this year’s Republican Convention, a “horrible” city in a meeting with Republican members of Congress last week. But their descriptions of cities as crime-ridden locations that people are fleeing from are becoming further divorced from reality every day.

 

To be sure, cities still face their share of tough challenges, including grappling with homelessness, implementing strategies that factor in reduced demand for office space, and improving the quality of schools. The negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on urban life, however, have turned out to be mainly temporary.  Our cities remain centers of economic growth and innovation, cultural enrichment, and a diversity that showcases the promise of America.  

 

In short, many Americans continue to find cities great places to live and to raise a family.  That is something that is highly unlikely to change.