Horowitz: COVID-19 Upends Our Politics
Rob Horowitz, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™
Horowitz: COVID-19 Upends Our Politics
While no one can predict with certainty all the key contrasts between the candidates that will drive voters’ decisions in November, it is evident that one of those will center around perceptions of President Trump’s performance as the nation’s leader during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. The central question of the election may very well be which candidate-- Trump or Joe Biden, the all but presumptive Democratic nominee--is best equipped to provide steady, competent leadership going forward on COVID-19 and any future threats to our health and safety.
As with any large-scale crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic provides both political opportunity and risk for an incumbent president. In President Trump’s case, given his persistent low approval rating despite a good economy, leadership during this crisis perceived as effective and empathetic could end up growing his base of support, putting him in a stronger position to be re-elected than he was before the pandemic. After all, in times of crisis, Americans tend to come together and rally around their leaders, boosting approval ratings.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTThe risk, of course, is if the leader does not rise to the occasion and is found wanting at a time of maximum need, when the public is paying close attention. With less than 50% of the electorate approving of President Trump’s performance on coronavirus so far and nearly 6-in-10 Americans believing he was “too slow to take action to address the problem,” the president is at this moment putting his re-election in further jeopardy by how he is handling the crisis.
While governors throughout the nation are getting high marks for their proactive actions on this crisis seeing 20- to-30 point bumps in their overall approval ratings, the president has received no more than a 2-to-3 point bump in his-and even that slight increase is receding. Tellingly, 57 percent of Americans approve of their state’s response to the virus, as compared to 38% who approve of the federal government’s response, according to a poll conducted by the National Opinion Research Center for the AP. In New Hampshire, for instance, 73% approve of the Governor Chris Sununu’s (R ) response to the virus as opposed to only 41% who approve of President Trump’s, reports a University of New Hampshire poll. Similarly, in Wisconsin, 76% of likely voters approve of Governor Tony Evers (D) handling of the pandemic, as opposed to 51% of likely voters who approve of President Trump’s handling of it.
The president still has time to turn these perceptions around. But it will require him to stop ducking responsibility and produce a much stronger and more coordinated federal response. It also requires a decided change in how he communicates to the public. In times of crisis, people look for a president they can trust. The plain facts are that most Americans think the president is dishonest and his constant falsehoods during this crisis so far, combined with his repeated attempts to blame states and past administrations for any problems that surface, do not inspire confidence.
In difficult times, people want a leader who straightforwardly admit mistakes. That builds credibility. As Harry Truman famously said, ‘The buck stops here.” President Trump’s motto seems to be, ‘The buck stops anywhere but here.”
Just as important, in difficult times, Americans want a leader who conveys empathy--who seems to understand what they are going through and puts their interests first. Eight-in-ten Americans believe the president is self-centered, according to a Pew Research poll taken before the pandemic became full-scale. President Trump’s performances in his daily briefings-- where he spends too much time launching attacks and constantly congratulates himself for the great job he is doing-- are doing nothing to disabuse any one of that perception.
In contrast, the coronavirus play to the perceived strengths of Joe Biden. His years as Vice-President and long experience in the US Senate become assets as the value of government experience is now enhanced. His ability to convey empathy--perhaps his best quality as a candidate-becomes a bigger political plus now His large perceived advantage among Democratic primary voters over Bernie Sanders over who can best handle a crisis, makes a Sanders comeback, which was already highly unlikely, nearly impossible.
Biden has a smaller but still decided advantage over President Trump among the general electorate today on who can best handle a crisis. But this can change. As our president during this time of crisis, President Trump has the power and the bully pulpit to turn current public opinion in his favor; these are tools Joe Biden simply doesn’t have as his disposal.
President Trump can only accomplish this, however, with fundamental changes in his approach to leadership and his job. So far, he has not risen to the occasion, either substantively or through his communication with the American public. Some self-reflection and a hard look in the mirror are called for. Even pick up the phone and call former Presidents Obama, Bush, and Carter for candid advice. I, for one, hope he does it. Unfortunately, it is hard to see much grounds for optimism on this score.
