Kamala Harris Takes the Torch and Runs with It - Rob Horowitz
Rób Horowitz, MINDSETTER™
Kamala Harris Takes the Torch and Runs with It - Rob Horowitz
In the space of several days, Vice President Harris was not only able to wrap up the nomination; her candidacy generated a burst of enthusiasm, momentum and fundraising among Democrats that has not been seen since Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign. In this short period of time, the presidential race went from one in which Donald Trump was firmly in the driver’s seat to a highly competitive contest.
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The dramatic political sea change was brought about by President Biden finally recognizing that despite his strong belief that he remained capable of defeating Donald Trump and serving ably as president in another term, the concerns in the electorate about his age, as well as the serious doubts of elected democrats and large contributors about his declining public communication skills made his candidacy unlikely to succeed. Top Democratic leaders who to a person share Mr. Biden’s conviction that another Trump term poses a serious threat to our democracy— a belief informed by the former president’s past actions and authoritarian-friendly rhetoric--- privately told the president that he needed to withdraw. A series of orchestrated leaks, coupled with public calls to withdraw from a significant subset of Democratic senators and representatives, ratcheted up the political pressure.
While it is the case that Mr. Biden was faced with a daunting path forward if he decided to remain in the race, it is still the rare politician and statesman who voluntarily gives up power. The president is to be commended for putting the country first. In his remarks to the nation on his withdrawal, he was straightforward, rightfully insisting on the merits of his presidency, but acknowledging what for him must be a painful political reality. “You know, in recent weeks, it’s become clear to me that I needed to unite my party in this critical endeavor,” said President Biden. I believe my record as president, my leadership in the world, my vision for America’s future all merited a second term, but nothing, nothing can come in the way of saving our democracy, and that includes personal ambition.”
By speedily following up on the public announcement of his decision to withdraw with an endorsement of the vice president, Biden created the possibility that Democrats would quickly coalesce around her candidacy. Harris’ hard work and deft political touch did the rest. A key moment was the timely endorsement of Governor of Josh Shapiro (D-PA), who was mentioned as one of the potential presidential contenders, if a battle for the nomination developed. His endorsement was quickly followed by the endorsements of Governors Newsom, Whitmer, Moore, and Pritzker—other presidential possibilities. By mid-week, the Harris’ whip operation had rounded up the public commitments of the majority of convention delegates, locking up the nomination. The endorsement of Barack and Michelle Obama, whose support the Trump campaign had foolishly and mistakenly called into question, capped one of the best weeks in recent memory for a new presidential candidate.
Harris’ public performances during this eventful week, ranging from campaign appearances to media availability after meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, matched the skill with which she played the inside game. Her energy and sharp delivery served as a welcome contrast with Mr. Biden and a formidable counter to the meandering, dark ramblings of Mr. Trump. Emphasizing her experience as a prosecutor, having served as San Francisco’s district attorney and California’s attorney general, the vice-president took it directly to Mr. Trump. “In those roles, I took on perpetrators of all kinds,"Ms. Harris proclaimed at several campaign events that received saturation-level television coverage. "Predators who abused women, fraudsters who ripped off consumers, cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain. So, hear me when I say I know Donald Trump's type. And in this campaign, I will proudly put my record against his."
By week’s end Kamala Harris had pulled even with Donald Trump in the national polls, as well as in key swing states. This jump in the polls was mainly fueled by an increase in support from key Democratic constituencies where President Biden was underperforming, including younger voters, Blacks and Latinos. More importantly, there was a marked boost in favorable perceptions of the vice-president overall, and among independents.
Before last week, her favorable rating tracked Mr. Biden’s. More often than not, views of the vice-president are mainly determined by people’s perceptions of the president. In the case of Ms. Harris, focus groups have found that those views are not firm. This gives her an opportunity to define herself. The vice-president has begun to do so, making a strong positive impression in the first week of her candidacy. The test, however, will be over time. She must define herself in her terms, continuing to emphasize her experience as a prosecutor and outlining a vision for the future that creates some distance from Mr. Biden. This must be accomplished in the face of fierce attacks by Mr. Trump and his surrogates, all designed to convince voters that she is too liberal to be trusted with the keys to the Oval Office.
As Tony Fabrizio, Mr. Trump’s pollster, asserted in a memo anticipating Ms. Harris’ polling bump, she is getting the benefit of a honeymoon period that is bound to end. While that is undoubtedly true, she presents a far more formidable challenge to the former president than Mr. Biden. Any slight loss with non-college male white voters--a solidly Republican subset and particular Trump strength that is likely to be resistant to Ms. Harris--will be greatly outweighed by her greater appeal to younger voters, as well as Blacks, Latinos, and Asians. This will enable her to expand the electoral map, putting Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina back in play.
Additionally, Mr. Trump’s lead against Mr. Biden was mainly a function of nearly 3-out-of-4 likely voters believing the president was too old to be effective in his next term. Donald Trump remains unpopular with only 36% of Americans expressing a favorable view, while 52% view him unfavorably, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos Poll. The age and related cognitive fitness issue is now off the table. In fact, if anything, it now benefits Ms. Harris.
The torch has now been passed and this race is now even money or better for the Democrats to retain the White House. A lot can sure happen in a week.