Whitcomb: ‘Mother of All Credit Bubbles’; ‘Very Special Bond;’ Auto-Body Angst; ‘Diversity’ Dilemma

Robert Whitcomb, Columnist

Whitcomb: ‘Mother of All Credit Bubbles’; ‘Very Special Bond;’ Auto-Body Angst; ‘Diversity’ Dilemma

Robert Whicomb
“There is a temperate zone in the mind, between luxurious indolence and exacting work; and it is to this region, just between laziness and labor, that summer reading belongs.’’

-- Henry Ward Beecher

 

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

“Bring back the long summer after fourth grade

with stinging-cold waves that crashed on the Cape,

the tall, white dunes we scrambled across, the wild

blackberries we picked, a pair of tame pintoes

fed clutches of grass over the farmer’s gate,

Little House on the Prairie devoured in bed –’’

-- From “Album,’’ by Gardner McFall

 

 “Just tell us what Vladimir has on you  {Trump}. Maybe we can help.”

-- Guy Verhofstadt, former prime minister of Belgium
 

xxx
 

Corporations are borrowing like crazy -- as well as using the windfall from the huge Republican tax cut -- to buy back shares of company stock to boost their price and enrich investors – especially senior executives of these companies, for whom much of their compensation is stock. In general, these companies are not spending much money to develop new products or services, boost productivity or substantially raise the wages of nonexecutives after years of very low wage growth. Rather, they’re in effect turning vast quantities of equity into debt. Thus, corporate debt is surging to record highs both in the absolute sense and in relationship to profits and assets. Current consumption is trumping long-term growth.

 

Fiscal doom?
Further, these loans are being repackaged into opaque creatures called collateralized loan obligations, something like what was done with home mortgages in the huge bubble whose deflation led to the Crash of 2008 and the Great Recession.

 

Mariarosa Verde, a senior credit officer at Moody’s, the rating agency, warned in May that “the record number of highly leveraged companies has set the stage for a particularly large wave of defaults when the next period of broad economic stress eventually arrives.’’

 

With government, household and investor debt soaring, CMG Capital’s Stephen Blumenthal told Washington Post business writer Steven Pearlstine (who’s also a George Mason University professor of public affairs), America is experiencing “the mother of all credit bubbles.’’ To read Pearlstein’s scary piece, please hit this link:

 

As for the senior corporate executives who are promoting these buybacks to further enrich themselves, most don’t care if their companies drown in debt, as long as it’s well after the execs move on.

 

xxx

 

After the suicides of Anthony Bourdain and Kate Spade, members of the public who might be feeling suicidal are being told to “reach out’’ to mental-health professionals for help. Good luck. There is no real parity with “physical health’’ providers when it comes to getting help for mental-health crises. Insurance, if stressed people have it, is thin and mental-health professionals are overworked in the American health-care system, the most  fragmented and expensive in the Developed World.

 

Many mental-health professionals refuse to see new patients because they’re too busy or they don’t think they’d get paid enough.


xxx

 

President Donald Trump
This is what Trump did in  Singapore:

 

Sucked up to, and strengthened, a murderous and kleptocratic dictator who has killed many thousands of people and tortures many thousands of political prisoners in concentration camps.  Kim, like his tyrant father, has reneged on all major geopolitical promises. And, no, Trump, he doesn’t “love his people’’ any more than Trump loves Americans. Like our leader, he loves power and wealth above all.

 

Trump called Kim a “very talented man’’ who “wants to do the right thing.’’
He’s “very worthy’’ and Trump has “an excellent relationship’’ with him. He’s a “funny guy’’ who “loves his people’’ and has “a great personality.’’ It’s “a great honor’’ to know him,’’ with whom “I have a very special bond’’ and “I do trust him.”

 

But despite the fawning words about yet another dictator Trump says he admires, our narcissistic leader didn’t win any credible promise by Kim to denuclearize, which he will not do. Nor will he dismantle any of the huge conventional artillery installations he has pointed at Seoul as part of its relentless intimidation efforts aimed at eventually making Kim tyrant of the entire Korean Peninsula.

 

Read the National Review’s Michael Brendan Dougherty piece headlined “Today was a step toward a Korean Peninsula unified-- under Pyongyang’’ by hitting this link:

 

Trump again undermined and blindsided American allies, in this case South Korea (oh, them!), by supinely agreeing to the dictator’s request to cease what Trump (!) called “provocative” joint military exercises meant to deter North Korean aggression – without informing South Korea.  Nor did he tell the Japanese, our other ally in the region. This has also boosted the power in Northeast Asia of Kim’s allies China and Russia, whose dictators Trump also fawns over, undermining  U.S. security. But then, Trump does owe Putin -- and the well-meaning, honest but clumsy James Comey – his ascent to the Oval Office.

 

There probably have been enough words about Trump’s disastrous attacks on our Western allies, particularly on Canada, at the G7 summit in Quebec.  Perhaps no one should have been surprised: He doesn’t share Western values. Trump continues to damage U.S. credibility around the world, and to demonstrate that America can’t be trusted. This has damaged our security, including our economic security.

 

As Trump continues to ravage our relations with democracies and pump up his fellow thugs, more and more Americans, even those who grow obese by watching Fox “News’’  many hours a day, ask why he does this stuff, some of which smells like treason.

 

I believe that the answers include business deals for the staggeringly corrupt Trump Organization, which is run like the Mafia, and blackmail involving Trump’s repellent personal behavior.

 

In the case of North Korea, Trump and his sidekicks may be eyeing such business deals as Trump-branded hotels and resorts or perhaps making some of that Ivanka-branded junk in Kim’s concentration camps. Very low labor costs indeed!

 

xxx

 

Here we go again, with a bad, very-late-in-the-session bill in the Rhode Island General Assembly. State Rep. Ken Marshall, of Bristol, has filed a bill, presumably to make it easier for auto-body shops to charge even higher prices, that would prohibit those businesses from using after-market parts without a customer’s permission.  As it is, auto-body shops are not known for their low prices – one reason that car insurance is so expensive.

 

This bill would add yet another layer of unneeded regulation and add to Rhode Island’s reputation as a tough place in which to do business.

 

Auto insurance
"No other state in the country bans the use of high-quality, reliable aftermarket parts in the auto repair process," said Frank O'Brien, a spokesman for the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America. "Aftermarket parts are 20-30 percent cheaper than expensive original equipment manufacturer parts, and their use helps to keep auto repair costs down." For that matter, for many older models, aftermarket parts are the only parts available!

 

The Marshall bill recalls the many occupations in the Ocean State for which state licenses are absurdly required because guild-like organizations seek to keep their prices high by limiting competition. Consider that hair braiders and sign-language interpreters need state licenses and there’s been a move to force pet groomers to get licenses.

 

All this raises costs and discourages business formation.

 

An analysis of licensing requirements by the Institute for Justice found that “Rhode Island proved to be the 10th worst state with respect to the reach and difficulty of its licenses. Of the 102 occupations, Rhode Island regulates 72 and is the only state that regulates conveyor operators.”

 

xxx
 

The marijuana industry is, er, on a high, aided and abetted by state governments eager to get more tax revenue from these businesses. But as they do, they should bear in mind that they’ll be expanding the addiction universe. The National Institute on Drug Abuse reported back in 2015 that about  4 million people in the U.S. then met the criteria for “marijuana-use disorder.’’ Researchers for the Pew Charitable Trust have estimated that about 10 percent of users would be classified as having the disorder,  "disorder’’ defined as pot use that seriously interferes with aspects of users’ lives.

 

marijuana consumption
But those numbers are probably too low for two reasons: One is the increasing ease of buying pot; the other is that the strength of marijuana has been steadily rising. While marijuana’s active psychotropic ingredient, THC, was in the 2-4 percent range 25 years ago, now you can find it at up to 50 percent, with some concentrates and extracts at over 80 percent!

 

And some pot addicts are likely to seek even stronger drugs to achieve the feelings they desire. Marijuana is bound to be a gateway drug for many addiction-prone people.

 

xxx

 

Attorney General Jeff Sessions
U.S.  Atty. Gen. Jeff Sessions was right to reverse an immigration court ruling that would let someone get asylum because she or he has been abused by a domestic partner in a foreign country or faced gang violence there. If the ruling had been allowed to stand, the floodgates could have been opened. The U.S. doesn’t have the resources to be the refuge for victims of nongovernment-linked abuse abroad, whose numbers are vast. Those clearly being persecuted by evil governments are quite another case.


“An alien may suffer threats and violence in a foreign country for any number of reasons relating to her social, economic, family or other personal circumstances. Yet the asylum statute does not provide redress for all misfortune.”  Sad but true.

 

Meanwhile, it seems commonsensical that the most effective way to reduce the pressure from migrants on our border with Mexico is to help make life safer and more prosperous there and in Central America. Sorry, but that means more foreign aid, which is unlikely to come from the current neo-isolationist regime in Washington.

 

XXX

 

The rumpus about Rhode Island state government management problems, such as in the Executive Office of Human Services, with its benefits-payments debacle (versions of which have happened in some other states), and state legal-action snafus, obscures a major problem. That is that Rhode Island’s state government, as do all large organizations, have some incompetent people but is also probably understaffed. There’s not enough backup to catch some problems before they become disasters.

 

According to a U.S. Census Bureau analysis done back in 2013, Rhode Island had 458 state and local employees -- including teachers -- per 10,000 residents, he said. This placed the Ocean State as having the seventh-lowest percentage of state and local public employees in the country.

 

Governor Gina Raimondo
Does state government have enough people to adequately serve the public in an increasingly complicated society? I doubt it. And it’s difficult to get the best managers to work in mostly thankless public-sector jobs in which you’re always vulnerable to intense political criticism. I admire people who take these jobs.

 

For more information, please hit this link:

 

Perhaps the state needs to hire for a year some retired corporate and public-sector executives to strengthen controls and, and if necessary, reorganize entire departments.

 

xxx

 

Some readers have read or heard the New England News Collaborative’s piece about the gradual disappearance of salt marsh islands in the beautiful Westport River in southeastern Massachusetts.  These are patches of marsh surrounded by sand and mud.

 

As the  article and broadcast, by Rhode Island Public Radio’s Avery Brookins, notes: “They help protect coastal properties from strong waves during storms, absorb carbon from the atmosphere, and serve as nurseries for fish and critical habitat for birds, such as ospreys.’’
 

There are two main reasons for the islands’ decline: sea-level rise, which means that the water covers the marsh for longer stretches, eventually eroding away the islands, and nitrogen pollution.

 

The story cited nitrogen pollution from farms and septic systems. But perhaps because of social-life conflicts of interest among the generally affluent people who have year-round or summer places along the river, which ends in Buzzards Bay, no one seems to have complained about what might well be the biggest nitrogen culprit – the exclusive Acoaxet Club, which includes a nine-hole golf course right on the river. Golf courses are notorious polluters, sending vast quantities of nitrogen from fertilizers, as well as herbicides and pesticides, into neighboring waterways. Golf clubs are getting more careful about this pollution these days but those along rivers and lakes have done a lot of ecological damage, whatever their beauty.

 

It would be nice if the Westport River Watershed Alliance made more of an effort to work on the Acoaxet pollution problem but there may be too many cross-membership conflicts to expect much.

 

To read/hear the Brookins piece, please hit this link:

 

xxx

 

I’ve written about the golf-course surplus here before. City Lab ran a good piece June 8 headlined “Dead Golf Courses Are the New NIMBY Battlefield.’’

 

“Golf courses and country clubs currently consume massive amounts of relatively underutilized land in cities and suburbs. Across the country, as courses and clubs begin shutting down, hundreds of thousands of acres of land could soon start opening up for infill redevelopment. …{T}this could be a boon for cities, especially those facing a housing crunch’’.

 

Agawam Hunt
“But the main variable blocking new housing on old golf courses might be old-fashioned NIMBYism. Golf courses, after all, are often interpreted as high-status amenities that raise the value of neighboring homes, despite evidence to the contrary.  If golf courses are gone and not coming back, residents often ask, why can’t they turn into permanent parks? Indeed, converting former greens into open space, wetlands, and natural preserves is happening nationwide in places where local land trusts have been able to purchase the tracts.

 

“This can be a more appealing option for neighbors—often much higher income than the average resident of their region—who push to block permits and rezonings that might allow for infill housing redevelopment on idle greens.’’ Of course, allowing more housing to be built would slow the rise in housing prices.


This recalls what happened at the Agawam Hunt Club, in East Providence, R.I. Hit this link:

 

To read the City Lab piece, please hit this link:

 

 

xxx

 

Will popular cities, such as Newport in the summer, follow Boston’s lead and act to curb the number of Airbnb apartments owned by what are mostly investors holding multiple properties?

 

Boston City Council members voted 11-2 for a proposed ordinance, backed by Mayor Martin Walsh, to ban renters and investors from renting apartments hotel-style by the night, on Airbnb and similar sites. People who own and live in two- and three-family buildings could still host short-term rentals, with some restrictions.

 

City leaders hope that at least 2,000 apartments, mostly owned by investors in a  few neighborhoods in or near downtown, and now largely rented full-time to tourists, would go back into the general housing market with the new ordinance, thus reducing rents for Bostonians.

 

xxx

 

 

Whitcomb's weekly interview with GoLocal News Editor Kate Nagle

 

Seth Grossman, a Republican running to become congressman from New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District, has come under fire for calling “diversity’’ “a bunch of crap and un-American.’’ He said: “You know women, African American, Hispanic; they’re chopping us up in these different pieces and getting us fighting against each other instead of spending our time saying everyone should be judged by their own talent.’’

 

Well, I agree that there’s excessive “identity politics’’ in America, with too many people primarily thinking of themselves as members of racial, ethnic, religious or sexual-preference groups rather than simply as American citizens. The Democrats have suffered by conceding too much to identity politics and not spending more time and energy on appealing to as broad a coalition as possible of lower-income and middle-class people.

 

But Grossman is wrong if he means that people who are traditionally victims of, particularly, racial discrimination shouldn’t be protected. Thought experiment: Would Seth Grossman, who is white, rather be a white man or an African American?

 

xxx
 

Having lived in cities for almost 50 years, I’ve used a lot of escalators. For about the first 20 of those years, I noticed that most people using up escalators climbed up the escalator steps to supplement their mechanical trip to the top. But in recent decades, such effort seems beyond the vast majority of escalator users. They just stand there, blocking the way. That’s a small indicator of why so many Americans are fat.

 

xxx

 

Dan Doctoroff is the former CEO of Bloomberg and former deputy mayor of New York. He speaks eloquently about the past, present and future of cities in this piece, headlined “How to Build a Great City’’. To read it, please hit this link:


The 50 Greatest Living Rhode Islanders

Enjoy this post? Share it with others.