Abortion Will Rocket to the Top of 2024 Agenda – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - April 7, 2024
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Abortion Will Rocket to the Top of 2024 Agenda – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - April 7, 2024
“The Florida Ruling” – The Florida Supreme Court ruled that the 6-week abortion ban passed by the state legislature and signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida was constitutional. But the state’s highest court also said a ballot initiative before voters this November would be allowed to decide the abortion rights issue in Florida, once and for all. Former President Donald Trump won Florida in 2016 and 2020, and many analysts and polls have him leading again. But having an abortion ballot initiative is sure to drive up turnout, and that may bring out more Democrats and independents, who otherwise may have stayed home. There have been no new presidential polls since the court ruling. A poll from two weeks ago. had Trump over Biden 48 to 42 in Florida. The court fallout and ballot initiative could change that.
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“Ballot Initiatives History” – Ever since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, six states have held ballot initiatives to restore abortion and reproductive rights. The six are: California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Vermont, and Ohio. In each state voters chose to legalize abortion. And it isn’t just liberal states such as California. Note that red states Ohio and Kentucky did, too. In 2024, thirteen more states are considering similar ballot initiatives. They are Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota. But there likely will bever be an even playing field in either direction on this issue, as 15 states simply don’t allow voter-driven ballot initiatives.
“The Court’s Make Up” – The high court’s current make up is six Republican appointees (three of whom were from former President Trump), and three Democrat appointees, two from former President Barack Obama and one from President Joe Biden. Even if Trump loses in 2024, his single biggest legacy will be his 25 to 30 plus years of influence on this Supreme Court. But if Trump is elected to the second term, he would most likely pick the Supreme Court nominees to replace Republican appointees, Justices Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito, both in their 70s. This would give Trump a total of five picks. By comparison, President Franklin Roosevelt had nine confirmed pics in four terms, and President Dwight Eisenhower had five, in two terms. Trump’s influence on the court would be their equal, especially since he picks young nominees.
“Appointments in Modern Era” – Just an FYI, since 1933 here are the court picks by the presidents: FDR 9; Truman 4; Eisenhower 5; Kennedy 2; LBJ 2; Nixon 4; Ford 1; Carter 0; Reagan 3; Bush-I 2; Clinton 2; Bush-II 2; Obama 2; Trump 3; Biden 1.
“It’s a Two-Step Dance!” – The Supreme Court, whether it be about abortion or other issues, is not just critical in the presidential race. While the president nominates justices, the U.S. Senate has the sole responsibility of confirming the justices. The House gets no say. Right now, the Senate is composed of 49 Republicans and 48 Democrats. But there are three independents who caucus with Democrats giving the blue party a razor-thin majority. Some races are just too close to call right now, so the Senate control could easily go to either party by a slim majority. Watch for some (perhaps many) candidates to make abortion a litmus test on nominees to the high court. Virtually every analyst, including me, is calling Senate control a toss-up at this time.
“Trump Court Battles Continue” – Former President Donald Trump is now under an expanded gag order for attacking the judge and others in his alleged hush money case. On social media Trump said, “They can talk about me, but I can’t talk about them??? That sounds fair, doesn’t it? This judge (Juan Merchan) should be recused and the case should be thrown out. There has virtually never been a more conflicted judge than this one. ELECTION INTERFERENCE at its worst.” Trump even attacked the judge’s daughter. These gag orders don’t work unless they are actually enforced. A number of other judges have issued similar orders to no avail.
“Anew Storm Over Stormy” -- Then Friday Judge Merchan shot down Trump’s subpoena to get materials from NBC on its upcoming documentary of the Trump – Stormy Daniels affair. The documentary is scheduled to air April 14th and Trump’s trial in the case is set to begin the next day. Trump cried foul, but Judge Merchan said “no” and added,” His subpoena and the demands therein are the very definition of a fishing expedition.”
“Trump Finds His Cash Bond” – A judge in Trump’s New York civil case regarding overvalued property, ordered Trump to put up a $465 million dollar bond, while the case was appealed. The amount sought was then lowered to $175, which Trump secured wish cash and other assets through a Los Angles insurance firm. The owner of that firm, Don Hankey, told the BBC, "I'd never met Donald Trump. I'd never talked to him on the phone. I heard that he needed a loan or a bond, and this is what we do.” Trump, who is now temporarily out of another jam, might change his middle name to Houdini. For now, Trump Tower and Mar-a-Lago cannot be seized for payment by the State of New York.
“President Xi, Phone Home!” – On Tuesday, President Biden spoke by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping. It was the first time they have spoken since their in-person summit last November in California. There is no end to the issues they likely spoke of including, tensions in the South Pacific with Taiwan, a nuclear North Korea, the amount of deadly Chinese-made fentanyl that is showing up in the United States, and more. There is no reported resolution on any of these, nor would I expect it. But the two men are talking and that’s progress. In an election year, the incumbent usually has an advantage when it comes to international relations. That’s because it’s one area where any president can have clout, without Congress weighing in. Expect more calls, and perhaps another face-to-face meeting. A similar path may also follow Biden’s phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week. At least they’re talking!