Afghanistan Could Be Biden’s Achilles Heel – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
Afghanistan Could Be Biden’s Achilles Heel – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
“The Hard Numbers” – As best as can be determined in a chaotic situation, at least 13 U.S. troops were killed in a suicide bombing at the gates of the Kabul Airport in Afghanistan. At least 170 Afghan allies, who helped the U.S. military and were awaiting evacuation, were killed, or injured.
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“The President’s Response” – As with any attack on U.S. forces, the response from the White House was predictable, irrespective of which party is in power. “To those who carried out this attack, as well as anyone who wishes America harm, know this: We will not forgive. We will not forget. We will hunt you down and make you pay. I will defend our interests and our people with every measure at my command,” said President Biden. So that’s the promise. Let’s all watch what happens in the coming days, weeks and months to see if the promised response is carried out. An empty response from the White House will be problematic. So far there has been a drone strike on an ISIS-K target, but we don’t know the extent of the damage.
“The Republican Response” – The reaction from the other side of the aisle was not a surprise. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) Kentucky called it, "one of the greatest foreign policy disasters in American history." I’m not here to take either side. What I do is assess the potential political fallout, and how it might shape coming elections, in some ways, based on past history.
“Saigon” – Given the chaos in Kabul, Afghanistan, the most frequently mentioned comparison was the Fall of Saigon on April 30, 1975. U.S. troops were evacuating, and many South Vietnamese were trying to leave with them, by climbing aboard American helicopters on the roof of the U.S. Embassy. The scenes last week of people gripping onto U.S. transport planes, and in some cases falling to their deaths, was very reminiscent. The fear of the locals was the same in both cases, that they would be executed for helping the U.S. President Gerald Ford was harshly criticized for the pullout, and lost his reelection bid in 1975, Ultimately, he lost that election, due to high inflation and a dismal economy, but the images from Saigon didn’t help.
“Teheran” – The Iran hostage crisis of 1979-1981 was one of the worst foreign policy incidents in modern times. President Jimmy Carter was seemingly frozen in place, trying to figure out how to respond. It was further compounded by a failed rescue attempt and helicopter crash in April 1980, that took the lives of nine U.S. troops. On Election Day in 1980, the 52 Americans were still being held, and Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in a landslide. Truth be told, the U.S. economy is really what defeated Carter with double-digit inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. But the inept and failed response to Iran, didn’t help at all. In two successive presidential terms, history repeated itself.
“The Battle for Bush I” – Now here’s the other side of the coin. After Iraq invaded U.S. ally Kuwait in 1990, President George H.W. Bush launched “Operation Desert Storm” and crushed Iraq. It brought new pride and support in the U.S. Military after the failures of Vietnam. Bush’s approval ratings were higher than his predecessor Ronald Reagan. He appeared to be on a glidepath to easy re-election. What happened after a huge foreign policy success? Well, the economy turned south and dipped into a recession. That sunk Bush’s hopes for a second term.
“Benghazi” – So we’ve seen three times here where the economy out-trumped foreign policy (sorry for the pun). But it’s not always the case. On September 11, 2012, just two months before President Barack Obama’s re-election bid, the U.S. Embassy in Benghazi, Libya was attacked, with U.S. fatalities, including our ambassador. For days, if not weeks, the Obama administration said the attacks were provoked by an anti-Muslim video. Various folks, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, shied away from calling it a terrorist attack (though it clearly was). Even though Clinton was a key player in two administrations with an economic recovery, the Benghazi mess dogged her through the 2016 campaign, and is one of the main reasons she lost.
“The Economy” – It’s not a hard and fast rule, because there are exceptions, but probably 8 times out of 10, U.S. elections are decided by the state of the economy, and who might be the steward during good times or bad. So is the Afghanistan mess a survivable international incident for President Biden? Yes, but ultimately that depends on how well the economy is performing, or not, in 2024, and certainly how his party does in the 2022 midterm elections.
“The Awkward Moment” – Oh my God, or OMG as they say in internet-speak, came as President Biden wrapped up his prepared remarks. This was probably an instruction bullet point on his list, but NOT something he was supposed to say aloud. “Ladies and gentlemen, they gave me a list here. The first person I was instructed to call on was Kelly O’Donnell of NBC.” Oh boy, this is not a good look. First, it makes it look like there is a protocol to pick reporters who are non-hostile, and second, it gives ground to the groundless right-wing theory that the media and Democrats work in consort to promote a like agenda. That is not true. But the optics of this are horrible. Yikes!
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