The Challenging Conservative Course Correction - “The Sunday Political Brunch” July 18, 2021
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
The Challenging Conservative Course Correction - “The Sunday Political Brunch” July 18, 2021
In many respects, we’re looking at the parties of the past versus the parties of the future. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.
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“Trump Back at CPAC” – Last Sunday former President Trump was among the speakers at the powerful Conservative Political Action Committee (pronounced C-PAC for short). Normally, the influential group holds its annual national gathering in Washington, DC, but this year it chose Texas. In an informal straw poll at CPAC, Trump took 70 percent of the vote in a theoretical bid for the 2024 GOP nomination. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida came in second with 21 percent. The other ten candidates polled in the weeds. Then there was a poll that purposely left Trump’s name off the ballot. DeSantis won that poll with 68 percent of the vote. Wow!
“Trump’s Tone” – The crowd loved Trump and his speech, with chants of “Four more years! Four more years!” Trump didn’t hold back. "There are now two sets of laws in this country. One for the left-wing mob, the rioters, and the rampagers ... who can do whatever the hell they want to whomever they want to do it. And there is another set of rules for law-abiding conservative Americans who happen to be Republicans, who simply want to speak their minds and exercise their rights to talk about the election," he said. Now, I agree that many big-city protesters have been largely untouched (and unprosecuted) for violent anti-police riots, but how can Trump possibly say what he did, considering the Capitol riot on January 6? Pot, kettle?
“But Who is the Alternative Choice?” Obviously, DeSantis is a viable alternative. He’s a former Congressman who faces reelection to the Governor’s mansion in 2022. He’s only 42 years old, and being from the nation’s third-largest state, he’s a viable candidate for several election cycles. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) Texas, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are all generating some buzz, but their support is muted with Trump in the mix.
“The Bottom Line” – Trump’s BIG race is 2022. He is basically backing his own slate of candidates for the House and Senate, and is even getting primary challengers to run against Republican incumbents he does not like. Look, if Trump can deliver GOP control back to the House or Senate, he’s a hero. And if he delivers both chambers of Congress to the Republicans, how could they possibly deny him the nomination in 2024? Loyalty can be priceless in politics!
“The Democrats’ Targets”—Well, we now know the “Top Three” targets. According to former U.S. Senate candidate Amy McGrath (D) Kentucky, who is leading the charge, the top GOP targets are: Rep. Mo Brooks (R) Alabama, who spoke at the rally of the January 6th Capitol riot; Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) Colorado, who broadcast on social media during the Capitol riot; and, Rep. Devin Nunes (R) California, who ardently defended President Trump during the so-called Russian Collusion investigation.
“The Republicans’ Targets” – We know who the Democrats are going after, so in fairness, let’s list who the Republicans want to pick off. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) Georgia won a special election this past January to lead Democrats to take control of the Senate. But, Warnock faces a race for a full term in 2022. President Biden won Georgia by a razor-thin margin in 2020. In Florida, Rep. Charlie Crist (D) is running for governor, so he’s giving up a Congressional seat that Republicans have a good chance of winning. Sen. Mark Kelly (D) Arizona is also seeking a full-term, in a state that leans red. Republicans are also trying to save a Senate seat as Sen. Richard Burr (R) North Carolina is retiring.
“Biden’s International Trifecta of Trouble” – Presidents who often get frustrated by Congressional dynamics often turn to foreign affairs where they have a lot more latitude and flexibility. Biden loves this field anyway, as the former Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Right now, he has trouble with the Taliban surging in Afghanistan; a presidential assassination in Haiti; and, mass instability in Cuba. All three problems could have a direct effect on U.S. interests. If he handles them well, he’ll be viewed as a strong and effective diplomat. If things go off the rails in any one, or more of these, Biden may look indecisive and ineffective. Either way it lands, it could mean trouble in 2022, and beyond to 2024.
Where are you leaning in the 2022 Congressional races? Who’s hot or not in your state in the U.S. Senate and House? Let us know by clicking the comment button!
