Bishop: Much Ado About the Wrong Thing

Brian Bishop, GoLocalProv Guest MINDSETTER™

Bishop: Much Ado About the Wrong Thing

Dan McKee
Expensive energy is the legislature’s fault. Expensive distribution is National Grid’s fault.

You may have noticed a number of legislators and our Lieutenant Governor, Dan McKee, venting their spleens at National Grid lately over what is really just ministerial duty to pass on the market price of energy to consumers. National Grid has virtually nothing to do with the cost of energy and everything to do with the cost of distributing that energy. Their clever lobbying and the flat-footed ideologues we have elected tend to obscure what should be an obvious point. Blame National Grid for what they are responsible for, not for what someone else is responsible for.

Politicians are always better at pointing fingers than fixing problems. And more often than not, the louder they complain, the more likely they caused the problem in the first place. Our cost of energy is directly related to the hostility of both our local and federal elected officials to traditional energy generation.

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Mckee tries to play both sides of the street, with a sternly worded filing at the Public Utilities Commission regarding the unacceptability of National Grid’s standard offer increase that sure reads like “it’s National Grid’s fault”, until you get to the final sentence when he recognizes that National Grid is only following a highly regulated procurement plan to secure so-called “standard offer” power. Any ironing out of the inevitable upward trend of energy costs would require changes in our poor public policy. He won’t say so, but this is because of our ridiculous subsidies for renewables -- chasing out coal and nuclear which are baseload style generation that pair poorly with this artificially created renewable generation. Meanwhile, we drag our feet on new gas pipelines, generation and liquefaction capacity that, at least, could somewhat balance our over investment in unreliable renewables.

What else is on offer

The ‘Standard Offer’ is only what you get by default if you take no action. One thing Dan Mckee has done right is to catalyze a better central website where you can compare competitive offers for power. But Dan does a disservice to his own work by suggesting that lower competitive offers prove that National Grid is asleep at the switch on the “standard offer”: “The competitive prices we are seeing now in our energy-shopping website represent a sharp contrast to the punitive price increase proposed by National Grid”.

That is nonsense. The “standard offer” is procured 6 months at a time with relatively little forward ‘hedge’ so it reflects the current market for the assumed, but not known, size of this default tranch of customers – currently about 90% of electric consumers who have not bothered to select a private supplier. This procurement reflects no strategic behavior to attract and retain customers because the idea is that it shouldn’t have any, eventually.

Because customers can leave the “standard offer” at any time without penalty, those who remain on the “standard offer” must cover the costs associated with serving a large but imprecise demand. Still, there are no offers in the competitive market noticeably below the current “standard offer”, which is lower during the spring/summer pricing period (April to September) with a current energy cost rate of 6.2¢/kwh (as opposed to the distribution or ‘line charge). But now there are a few offers that will beat the anticipated 9.8¢ rate for the fall winter period, but those offers are only good for a limited period of time before your rate would return to a market rate, i.e. something very similar or possibly more expensive than the “standard offer”.

It’s all in the timing

Some folks decry the timing of the procurement. These dummies at Grid and the PUC who obviously know nothing about the electric market just took the bids at the wrong moment. That is an equally stupid argument by people who really know nothing about the electric market, or deliberately misrepresent it, like Dan Yorke.

Of course the PUC could tell grid to buy the “standard offer” a year at a time. This would just iron out the cost so instead of summer being 3¢ cheaper than winter, the price would average out to 1.5¢ more all year (with the premium varying over time depending on whether we adopt any strategies to relieve winter constraints). That is a poor market signal because, if energy is more expensive in the winter, consumers ought to know that is a more important time to conserve. The way they know is that their bill goes way up.

I am quite in favor of the market promoting conservation, not through our public policies that needlessly inflate energy costs, but simply passing on the real market costs. But I don’t want to subsidize other people’s so-called ‘conservation’ with my money. I object to the gross waste of money in our bills paying for cheap light bulbs that save relatively little energy, esp. in the constrained winter period when the waste heat from bulbs would just cut heating costs, and on fancy new boilers that also save relatively little money because our radiators and baseboard are not generally designed to operate at low temperatures that would take advantage of condensing technology so only complete system replacement in most cases could save much and the cost of that is a scary number. And to top it off this government sponsored rush is to boilers that tend to last 15 years instead of 50 and are more complicated to maintain (very careful installation and operation can result in some savings so you’re welcome to comment if you have a new boiler you like but you’re also welcome to send me a check for my contribution to it. And, although I favor local industry like TACO and AMTROL that manufacture to serve our northeastern penchant for hot water heating, I must observe that forced air heat is an exception that can benefit most easily from the new condensing technologies and has the least complicated control and operating strategies to achieve it). All this stupidity is paid for with big subsidies from ratepayers, i.e. you and me. Conservation is great, but spending other peoples money is not how the incentives for it actually work.

There is a crystal ball

It isn’t as if Grid and the regulators didn’t know this was coming. The differential in Winter and Summer periods has become a regular point of discussion in the media – which barely understands the market but is happy each year to highlight the winter increase but not to tout as good news the summer decrease of energy costs on the “standard offer”. But this year’s increase is a thing apart, hazarding the highest rates we have ever seen for the “standard offer”. This represents not just the normal rhythm of seasonal energy costs and the continued head-in-the-sand opposition to additional gas pipeline capacity and liquefaction activities, this represents the hostility to traditional generation capacity that has or will shortly close Brayton Point and several nuclear facilities in our region.

These retirements caused a spike in the 2014 “forward capacity auction”. This auction provides payments to generators for agreeing to keep their plants maintained and ready to operate beginning in June three years following the auction, i.e. June of 2017.  A number of these plant retirements were announced in 2013 and this roiled the capacity market and resulted in sharply higher prices, but these prices are for 3 years hence as generators are required to give advance notice of retirements so the pricing effects did not show up until this procurement round.

The Do Nothing Party

Well, all the new Do Nothing party, a unique compendium of progressives and parochialists, and believe me they deserve this monikerial reference to the earlier Know Nothing party, who oppose all competitive energy generation, transmission and storage projects but now complain that energy is getting expensive for poor folks say: “if we knew this was coming, why didn’t we change our procurement strategy and get electricity bids for several years at a time”. Because everybody bidding knows what’s coming too. If you look at competitive offers for a price lock beyond 12 months on our electric exchange, they are all more than even the proposed “standard offer” of 9.8¢ that everyone is complaining about!

“Worry not”, the Do Nothings say, “the high auction prices have come down this year.” They seem to have missed the intervening years. The forward capacity auction price from 2013 factoring into last year’s energy pricing was $2.75/kwM (kilowatt-month).  The price from the 2014 auction that affects this year almost tripled to $7.03/kwM. For next year it goes up to $11/kwM and Grid is predicting winter “standard offer” pricing of 11¢/kwh!

Double or Nothing

The thin gruel the Do Nothings peddle is that this year’s capacity auction for 2020 is back down to $5.30/kwM. Sure, it's down from sky high pricing, but where is it compared to the auction before Brayton Point bowed out: doubled! So we are supposed to be grateful that, the Do Nothings only doubled our bill instead of tripled or quadrupled it. Just let them continue to hold sway and they will get multiples up, believe me.

You cannot idle vast portions of our industrial generation base and replace it with Deepwater and Solar City. In a state known for bad policy, expensive and wasteful government this is the worst run of public policy I have ever seen. It cannot be ‘fixed’ by opposing National Grid’s filing which is purely ministerial and Dan McKee and all the legislators complaining know this, or if they don’t they are even stupider than I think – which I suppose is possible.

To Hedge or Not to Hedge, this is the question

While this might be viewed as a catalyst for people choosing the competitive market rather than the “standard offer”, that market itself shows that the trend is steeply upward in the future if we Do Nothing. Since a large number of customers will remain on the “standard offer” it may be appropriate to enhance the market by allowing the kinds of longer term investments in pipelines or liquefaction to be made on behalf of “standard offer” consumers rather than let them fall victim to a market that suffers from constraints and is not transmitting a strong enough signal to cut through the bureaucratic BS and get some of these projects built.

Do Nothings are not the only ones who oppose this. Energy economists realize that any strategies that would have seemed smart today in light of the current circumstance might not be the smartest hedges in 3 or 4 years when they come on line. And if there is directed ratepayer investment in a specific constraint relief, e.g. pipelines, those who already privately operate such services as liquid natural gas storage essentially have a government chartered monopoly entering the field against them. And others would ask, why not build those power lines to bring Canadian hydropower in winter instead? Those are fair criticisms, but it would be fairly easy for Grid and the PUC working through their transparent public docket to craft a plan for competitive solicitation for constraint reliefs so they can choose among the most cost effective solicitations. If power lines are cheaper fine; if a much bigger storage and liquefaction facility would permit excess summer pipeline capacity to be stored here for winter use and those costs would beat a new pipeline or transmission line, have at it.

Some assumptions are still necessary. These projects wouldn’t even come on line until more than 3 years out so their cost cannot be directly compared to known future capacity costs. A degree of modeling and crystal ball work is necessary. The real problem is that the Do Nothings are preventing any of these projects from moving forward. It is hedging like this that built Southwest Airlines. It doesn’t always pay off but when you can pretty reliably see energy constraint you have to have a way that consumers electricity use can be channeled into a signal for constraint relief and as long as a vast majority of consumers (and small businesses) are on the “standard offer”, the time is now to accomplish this.

Don’t worry, it could get worse

Little wonder the irony that a business like The Cuban Revolution, built on a communal ethos but operated with the intent of turning a profit left Rhode Island for North Carolina where electric rates are half of ours. Restaurants use a lot of gas and electricity! We can continue to listen to the Do Nothings or we can do something. Yes, it should be smart, and renewables are not smart right now!

Maybe in 10 or 20 years with cheaper storage, more broadly integrated electric cars that are like batteries for the grid, those investments will begin to look smart. But by then maybe we won’t even want to figure out how to put all the malarkey on the grid but just get off the grid altogether, just as the vast majority of us run our own heating systems we could run our own generation in the future and let go of the grid. But, in the meantime, the extravagant prices we pay for the renewables we have now cannot be recovered in 10 or 20 years. We should think about rewriting the Deepwater deal at half of its current giveaway. This is a legislative creation, and as such no more protected from alteration than state pensions.

And all of this isn’t to let National Grid off the hook. This is too convenient for them, to draw fire on the “standard offer” over which they have little control and where they have tried to exercise some diligence over future prices and have been rebuffed by the PUC. All this falderol over the energy cost on your bill helps to obscure that the energy cost, even at 9.8¢ /kwh is not the highest part of your bill!  The Distribution charge, i.e., National Grid’s gravy train, is the highest part at about 10.8¢/kwh. This is not only Grid’s honey jar; this is where the legislators hide all the costs, like Deepwater, Solar power, net metering, etc. that they don’t want to be blamed for. On the other hand, the expensive renewable portfolio requirements are in the energy cost in your bill – although none of this is every broken out so you can never see how stupidly your money is being spent. They spread renewables costs liberally on both sides of your bill, but hey we have windmills and no industry. That is apparently what some people wanted, and they got it.

And they have an unholy alliance with National Grid whom they have awarded dark money, little subsidies on every stupid thing legislators want to throw on your electric bill so Grid, that has an army of sophisticated lawyers and lobbyists, will not oppose them. They have bought Grid’s silence with your money. This is a horrible corruption and it is just the kind of thing that does not get fixed by trying to close the barn door when the standard offer has already left the stall.

Anyone who has made it this far can decry my own lack of efficiency in spelling 2500 words to barely begin to explain why electricity is expensive. Humble apologies are offered, but only for my loggerhea, not for exposing this devious plot to empty our wallets for renewable energy.

Brian Bishop is on the board of OSTPA and has spent 20 years of activism protecting property rights, fighting over regulation and perverse incentives in tax policy. 

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