From Florida, My Political Postcard with Love! -- “The Sunday Political Brunch” -- December 19, 2021

From Florida, My Political Postcard with Love! -- “The Sunday Political Brunch” -- December 19, 2021

Greetings from the Sunshine State!!! This is going to be ground zero for some of the biggest political battles of 2022. I’m back in my old stomping grounds for the holidays, and to write some political updates on one of the most important states in the nation going into the 2022 midterms. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“DeSantis v. Crist: The Governor’s Race” – The race for Florida’s top job is a good one with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) facing off against former Gov. Charlie Crist, first an (R), then an (I), and now a (D).  Crist is currently serving in the U.S. House. The most recent St. Pete Poll has 51 percent DeSantis, to 45 percent Crist. The Susquehanna Poll has it closer at 46 to 43, with a slight advantage to DeSantis. Look, it’s early and a lot can change. When you look at upwards of 10 percent of voters still undecided, anything can happen.

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“Rubio v. Demings: The U.S. Senate Race” – The heated U.S. Senate race in the Sunshine State is a similar tale. The St. Pete Poll has 51 percent for Sen. Marco Rudio (R), to 44 percent for Rep. Val Demings (D). The Susquehanna Poll has Rubio up over Demings, 50 to 39 percent. Republicans need to hold Rubio’s seat if they are to win back control of the Senate in 2022.

 

“DeSantis for President”—Gov. DeSantis is also getting buzz in presidential polling circles for 2024. Make no mistake, former President Donald Trump is still the favorite of the party faithful. In a recent Harris Poll released by The Hill, Trump led the hypothetical GOP field with 47 percent of the vote. DeSantis came in second with 10 percent, and former Vice President Mike Pence came in third with 9 percent. 19 percent are undecided. If Trump does not get in the race, the poll is 23 percent for Pence, and 21 percent for DeSantis. Again, it’s early! Trump and DeSantis are strong allies, so I can’t imagine them running against each other.

 

“New Congressional Seats” – In the 2020 census, Florida gained enough population to get another seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. At 32, seats, it now has the third-highest state count in the Electoral College, behind California and Texas. The Florida GOP controls the State Senate and House, (plus the Governor’s mansion), so it’s likely they’ll draw a map that heavily favors their party.

 

“Florida First” – The Sunshine State will host the first Congressional race of this cycle, by holding a special election on January 11, 2022, to fill the seat long-held by Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) Florida, who died in office. Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick won the primary in November, as did Republican Jason Mariner. McCormick is an African American woman, in a district with a heavy minority population. Mariner is a believer that the 2020 presidential election was hijacked, and he’s spoken in support of the January 6th Capitol rioters. Democrats are likely to hold this seat, given the demographics of the district, but if Trump comes to campaign for Mariner, it could get interesting.

 

“Impact on Electoral College 2024” – Redistricting can certainly help one party or the other. Red states such as Texas and Montana gained seats. So did the blue states of Oregon and Colorado. Toss-up, battleground states Florida and North Carolina, picked up seats. West Virginia was the only red state to lose a seat, while the more liberal bastions of New York, Illinois and California all lost seats. The key swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan each lost one seat. I would say this is a slight-GOP advantage going into the 2022 midterms, (and 2024), but not by much.

 

“Florida-Georgia Line” – Yes, I am mostly focusing on the political impact of Florida this week, but Florida and Georgia share a common border and the two states have a lot in common, i.e., a very heavy immigration from northern states, which can change the political climate. With that in mind, keep a close eye on the Georgia governor’s race next year. Incumbent Republican Brian Kemp is being challenged by former Senator David Perdue (R) Georgia, and Trump is backing Perdue. As mentioned here recently, Stacey Abrams, the Democrat who narrowly lost to Kemp in 2018, is gong to challenge again. Georgia has turned from a solidly red, to a decisively purple state.

 

“Concerns About a Coattail Effect” – Democrats are certainly worried about an unpopular president, dragging down an entire ticket. A recent Fox News Poll has President Joe Biden’s approval rating at 47 percent, with disapproval at 51 percent. That’s really within the margin of error, so call it a dead heat. More troubling is a recent Rassmussen Poll where Biden’s approval rating was at just 41 percent, with disapproval at 58 percent. With inflation spiking right now, that’s not the kind of trend you want entering an election year. With inflation and negative approval ratings, Republicans could sweep control of one or both chambers of Congress.

 

Who are you leaning towards supporting in 2022 and 2024? Just click the comment button to let us know!

 

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and all of the Washington, DC media market. He is a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer for www.GoLocal.Prov and its affiliates.