This Election is NOT the End of the World -- “The Sunday Political Brunch”
Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™
This Election is NOT the End of the World -- “The Sunday Political Brunch”
“This is NOT a Litmus Test” – Virginia and New Jersey are outliers. They are the only two states that elect governors in the year following the presidential race, but a year before the Congressional midterms. Every year I can remember, especially the six years I lived in DC, you’d have inane reporters and pundits on the news saying, “This is a precursor or predictor of what’s to come in the midterms.” Sadly, it’s junk science and simply not true. I was taught in grad school research that a diverse sample of 300 respondents to a questionnaire was a good sample that could have predictability and reliability. The results in two states out of 50, is hardly a representative or predictive sample.
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“McAuliffe was Lifeless and Boring” – Virginia is an oddball. A governor cannot serve consecutive terms and is essentially a lame duck once in office. You can, as Terry McAuliffe did, seek another term once you’ve spent time out of office. The problem is, you can look like a “has been,” or a “been there, done that” officeholder. Quite honestly his campaign was boring, lifeless, and uninspiring. He tried to link Youngkin to Donald Trump, but a candidate’s first message should be about “why you should vote for me” and not, “why you should vote against the other guy.’ The message needs to be self-defining and positive. In a campaign speech for McAuliffe versus Youngkin, President Biden mentioned Trump’s name 34 times. It didn’t stick.
“Youngkin was Very Energetic” – Whether you like Glenn Youngkin or not, he was certainly the aggressor in this race. He came off as new and young and hungry, with a seemingly sincere message to improve his state. Not only did he win, but he probably helped some lesser-known candidates down-ballot win their races, too. Youngkin accepted the endorsement of former President Trump, but the two men never campaigned together, which was probably a wise move by the Youngkin camp. While Trump still has a lot of juice with Republicans in Virginia, he is not liked by independents, who often hold the keys to the governor’s mansion.
“What Have You Done for me Lately?" – Politics is a fickle business. People don’t care about party as much as the hard stuff of, “What have you done for me lately?” The Biden Adminiatrstion blew a golden opportunity on infrastructure (just as President George H.W. Bush did in 1991). One of the most common complaints in America is, “When are you going to fix the damn roads?” It has bipartisan appeal. There’s no such thing as a Republican pothole or a Democrat pothole. Biden could have accepted and passed through Congress the bipartisan $1.2 trillion-dollar physical infrastructure bill. We’d be paving roads and highways right now, with very visual images on the news. Instead, the bill got bogged down in childcare, home health care, and prekindergarten. Those are all important, but they sank the roads bill for now. There are no pictures to brag about.
“History Repeats Itself” – This has happened before, and on the other side of the aisle. One of my favorite acronyms in Washington, DC was the ISTEA Act (yes, pronounced iced tea!) It stood for the Intermodal Surface Transportation and Efficiency Act. In short it was an infrastructure bill to build roads, bridges, highways, etc. President George H.W. Bush signed it into law in December of 1991, as the U.S. was recovering from recession. It took forever to get any significant construction done, and without much physical evidence of its success, Bush was defeated for reelection 11 months later. Donald Trump also promised a major infrastructure bill, but it never happened. In hindsight Biden could have passed a big roads bill as one of his first acts in office as there were enough votes to do that. Virginia is one of the states badly in need of road and highway work, and it could have helped McAuliffe.
“Virginia House Trends" – I often say that political movements are built from the ground up, not from the top down. As the late House Speaker Tip O’Neill would say, “All politics is local.” With that said, Republicans picked up 50 seats in the 100 member Virginia House of Delegates Tuesday, with a hand full of races still to be decided. In short, they are likely to gain a slim majority. Local constituents want service. They want roads paved and schools built. If they feel like they’re not getting their fair share, they’ll vote in new officeholders.
“It’s a Hat Trick” – In hockey, you score three goals, it’s a Hat Trick! I guess the same might apply to Virginia politics. Not only did Republicans win the governor’s race (a White male), but they also won Lt. governor (a Black woman), and state attorney general (a Hispanic man). This must concern Democrats nationally because they have carried the last four presidential races in this key swing state after Republicans dominated that race in the Old Dominion for decades. The state moves from a solid blue, back into at least the purple, toss-up category for the White House in 2024.
